Tim Wakefield is doing everything he can to give himself a serious shot at being an All Star this season. His 10 wins are tied for best in the league and he has gone at least six innings in all but three of his starts. Unfortunately for Wakefield, one runs into a few stumbling blocks when evaluating the knuckleballer’s candidacy for St. Louis.

ERA

Most people who are 26th in ERA don’t go to the All Star game. That’s not to say that he can’t, but if Wakefield wants to get taken seriously when reserves are chosen, he’ll need to do some damage tomorrow night against Seattle and improve that 4.18 mark.

Lucky for Wakefield, not every starter with a better ERA than him has a great record. In fact some of the starters have awful records (see: Washburn, Jarrod; Lee, Cliff). Those records are more likely to cost someone a spot than a semi-bloated ERA. Here’s the bottom line: Wakefield can lower his ERA with a good start. Washburn (4-6) can’t get to 10 wins with a good start.

HIS SELECTION WILL DEPEND SOLELY ON WINS

A 10-3 record is nothing to sneeze at, but anyone with a slightly-worse mark and better ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, etc., will stand a much better chance of making the team over Wakefield. That’s why Wakefield needs to hope that wins are regarded as much more important than ERA.

As it is now, Wakefield should be able to jump ahead of guys like Nick Blackburn (6-4, 3.10 ERA) and Matt Garza (6-5, 3.45), but it won’t get him ahead of the Jered Weavers of the world and that’s where he might end up losing out.

Throughout the years Wakefield has grown into a pitcher that Boston can count on a quality start from. Wakefield currently ranks 12th in that category with 10, but is just three behind Zack Greinke, Lee, and Dallas Braden for the AL Lead (13).

THE ROSTER WON’T HAVE AS MANY PITCHERS IN AN NL PARK

Wakefield’s chances would definitely be better if this game were being played in an AL park. Last season, 12 pitchers (six starters, six closers) were on the AL All-Star roster in Yankee Stadium while only 10 were on the roster in San Francisco in ‘07. Six starters still went, but when looking at the competition that Wakefield faces, it would appear that he is pretty far down on the list of possibilities.

Fortunately for Wakefield this year, managers will be allowed to add one more pitcher to each squad, and will likely be encouraged to add a starter who can consume some innings to avoid the humiliation of ties or a position player getting on the mound. That just may be what gets the knuckleballer into his first All-Star game. Even so, don’t be surprised if he’s left off the team from a numbers standpoint. Too many people are ahead of him in ERA (25), innings pitched (21), and strikeouts (41) for anyone to consider him a lock.

Additionally, the man who gets final say over his fate is someone who has seen No. 49 at his best in Rays manager Joe Maddon. Wakefield has historically shined versus teams whose names end in “Rays,” including a record of 8-3 versus Tampa Bay since Maddon took over in ‘06.

Maddon might have some allegiance towards a couple of his own guys– Garza and James Shields rank 12th and 13th in ERA, respectively, but only have six wins apiece– but if anyone is to give Tim Wakefield his much-needed push to St. Louis, wouldn’t it be a guy who knows first-hand just how much he can dominate?

EVERY TEAM NEEDS A REPRESENTATIVE

As everyone knows, every team needs to be represented in the All Star game. That means that if Player A has better numbers but plays on a team that is already represented, Player B will make the team over the more-deserving Player A if he’s on a team full of scraps. Think that’s unfair? Lance Carter would disagree. The reliever made the AL squad in ‘03 despite posting a 4.05 ERA before the break for Tampa Bay.

Looking through the teams, the usual suspects for this kind of stuff appear to be mostly clean. Kansas City will send Greinke, Cleveland will send Victor Martinez, the Rangers have several legit candidates in Ian Kinsler, Michael Young and Kevin Millwood, Detroit will send Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander, the Orioles have Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Brian Roberts…the list goes on and on. The one team that could really bite Wakefield is Oakland. With nobody on the Athletics having a standout season, Dallas Braden could see his 3.13 motor him past his 6-7 record and into the All-Star game. Catcher Kurt Suzuki could also make it, but he’s in a tight spot with Joe Mauer, Martinez, and A.J. Pierzynski having big seasons.

JOSH BECKETT IS CRAMPING HIS STYLE

If Josh Beckett makes this team over Wakefield, don’t blame the ace. After a rough two-game stretch that left him sitting with a 7.22 ERA at the end of April, Beckett has bounced back in a big way and would be deserving as an All-Star, which would all but rule out a spot for the longest-tenured member of the Sox.

Beckett’s 9-3 record is a shade below Wakefield’s 10-3, but the rest of Beckett’s numbers put Wakefield to shame. Beckett definitely falls under the previously-mentioned guys who have it all over Wakefield in every place but the win column. His 99 strikeouts nearly double Wake’s 50, but his five earned yesterday didn’t help. Either way, he’s got a lower ERA (3.67) and WHIP (1.22), while also tossing more innings (105.1). If it comes down to Wakefield and Beckett, it won’t even be a discussion unless Wakefield can nail down that win tomorrow night.

Here’s a list of some of the starters with whom Wakefield will likely battle it out for a roster spot (keep in mind that six starters went the last two years):

Zack Greinke (KC): 10-3, 1.95 ERA, 114 SO

Roy Halladay (TOR) [if healthy]: 10-2, 2.56, 95 SO

Felix Hernandez (SEA): 8-3, 2.54, 107 SO

Justin Verlander (DET): 8-4, 3.54, 130 SO

Jered Weaver (LAA): 8-3, 3.10, 86 SO

Kevin Millwood (TEX): 8-5, 2.80, 74 SO

Edwin Jackson (DET): 6-4, 2.49, 84 SO

Josh Beckett (BOS): 9-3, 3.67, 99 SO

Ricky Romero (TOR): 6-3, 2.85, 61 SO

Mark Buehrle (CHW) 7-2, 3.26, 61 SO

Erik Bedard (SEA) [if healthy]: 5-2, 2.47, 65 SO

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WAKEFIELD: 10-3, 4.18, 50 SO

As anticipated, Wakefield doesn’t exactly match up favorably with the rest of the competition. However, it would be awfully hard to turn an 11-game-winner away from the All Star game.

One Comments for “Will Wakefield Star in St. Louis?”

1. Keith Hegedus Says:
   July 3rd, 2009 at 2:05 pm

   You leave out one item that may definately work in Wakefield’s favor – The very fact that he has never been an All-Star. Never underestimate sentimentality.

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