| Buster Olney on Dale & Holley 11/5 | 11.05.09 at 3:18 pm ET |
ESPN baseball insider Buster Olney checked in with Dale & Holley to talk Yankees, Red Sox and more. Following is a transcript. To hear the interview, check out the Dale & Holley audio on demand page.
Buster Olney is with is, good morning Buster.
Hey guys, how ya doin’?
Hey Buster, how do you think we’re doing? In Boston, Massachusetts, following a Yankees convincing World Series title.
Oh, come on, you’re in the middle of plotting how you’re going to take them down next year.
[Holley:] In all seriousness, we’ve been having a pretty spirited debate about the role of money for the Yankees in the World Series. I’d say money’s important, but you’ve got to do other smart things to put a great baseball team out there, and Dale sees it a little differently.
[Dale:] When I look at team payrolls, Buster, the Red Sox are closer to the San Diego Padres at 29 then they are to the Yankees, and that that’s a huge disadvantage to the Red Sox, and tough to overcome.
These next two statements are absolutely true in themselves: Number one, the payroll situation in baseball, the disparity, is getting to be an increasing problem and it’s only going to get worse in stuff that’s going to happen in the next 37 days. And two, I think the Yankees did a great job in the way that they spent their money, the way that they’ve changed the way they’ve operated really since the fall of 2005 when Brian Cashman went to George Steinbrenner and said, “Look, we have to change the way we do things, we have to catch the Red Sox and some of the other teams that are running organizations better than we are.”
So is it possible, maybe the Red Sox aren’t a great example because they spend a lot of money, too. A team like Tampa last year, is that a once-in-a-generation situation where you have great scouting and development and you have a bunch of kids that can take down a high-salary team like the Red Sox or the Yankees?
You ever seen the movie “Hoosiers?” I think that’s the way we’re going to view the 2008 Rays, because I think their window’s closing. On the off day the other day between Games 5 and 6, the Rays traded Aki Iwamura to the Pittsburgh Pirates, the reason why they did this was to save $650,000 in buyout money on his contract. They weren’t going to bring him back because he’s too expensive, and by the way, Iwamura is making $4.85 million with the Pirates — their highest-paid player. Does that tell you everything you need to know about where teams are? Yeah, I think the window of opportunities for small- or mid-market teams are getting smaller and as I mentioned, the next 37 days you are going to see a wave of non-tendered players like you’ve never seen before. General managers are thinking it’s going to be between 75 and 100 guys. Guys like Jeremy Hermida. Today, there’s a rumor that Mark Teahan is probably going to be traded to the White Sox by the Kansas City Royals because at $5 million, the Royals don’t think they can afford him. You know, that is going to be an increasing problem, so I absolutely do think that money is not a minor issue. And certainly, the Yankees, in the first year they open this new ballpark, which was a tremendous success, they win the championship. They’re loaded, and if they decide they want John Lackey, they’re going to get him.
One of the examples that we used concerning the financial disparity was just Teixeira. If the Red Sox had spent more than the Yankees for Teixeira, if he were here instead of there, how significantly would the gap between the two teams be closed?
I really think we’re going to look back at that bidding as a turning point in the dynamic between the Red Sox and Yankees. I think the Red Sox would have been the better team this year if they had won the Teixeira bidding. I think he’s that important of a player, he would have given the Red Sox exactly what they needed, a younger guy, a guy who can replace [David] Ortiz/Manny [Ramirez], a guy who can upgrade the defense, not only this year but in years going forward. And instead, the Red Sox are kind of left to choose among a lot of lesser options, and the Yankees meanwhile have this guy. And let me tell you something, I mean, there are always going to be character judgments about guys when they make money decisions as Teixeira did last winter, but from the moment he got in the Yankees clubhouse, he’s been tremendous in terms of how he’s dealt with the media, how he’s dealt with teammates, by all accounts he’s been a great teammate — and the Red Sox are left to sort of pick up the pieces from that.
You know, Buster, I have no doubt that Mark Teixeira is an impact player, but this is why I disagree that it would have vaulted the Red Sox to the World Series. I think the Yankees, with the signing of CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett and even acquiring Nick Swisher, I think they still had enough to overcome — if the Red Sox had gotten Teixeira, I still think the Yankees would have won the World Series.
Well, I hear you — and I think Sabathia and Burnett were terrific as well, but I think Teixeira would have made a huge difference during the regular season, the Yankees would have had Nick Swisher at first base, some lesser option out in the outfield, and going forward they wouldn’t be set up. And on the other hand, the Red Sox would have had that bridge guy to the next middle-of-the-order-type guy. I mean, you see them play more than I do, and I don’t think there’s any question at the end of the year what they were just starved for was a consistent offensive guy in the middle of their lineup. And I know people within the game thought the day Teixeira signed with the Yankees last year, they were like, “Wow, that might swing the balance of power between these two teams.”
Hideki Matsui was the World Series MVP, was tremendous, was great last night against Pedro in two situations that turned the game around. Does that change the way the Yankees are going to approach him in the offseason now that he’s a world series MVP, maybe they thought about moving on from this guy and now it’s going to be difficult to do?
No, it’s going to turn into business and not personal. I really think what they’re going to do is play [Johnny] Damon and Matsui off of each other. They’re only going to keep one of the two guys. I think they want to keep some flexibility because [Jorge] Posada clearly with his regressing defensive skills is going to be eating up some at-bats at designated hitter next year and the year after that. It wouldn’t surprise me if they were to basically put offers out to both Damon and Matsui or maybe they go after Damon first and say, “This is our offer for you, Johnny, and if you don’t take it we’re going to go after Matsui,” and basically get one of those two guys at the price they want to sign them to.
As I look at this thing with the left field position for the Red Sox and the Yankees, if they flopped left fielders, if Jason Bay got wooed by the Yankees and signed there and the Red Sox as a stop gap put Damon in left field here, I think he’d hit about eight home runs here next year.
You know what, I hear you. I don’t think the Yankees are going to be aggressive in going after an outfielder because they’ve got Austin Jackson coming up, and they do have this impending decision with Derek Jeter, about, you know, it doesn’t have to be next year, within the next two or three years, they’re going to move him out of shortstop. And because they have Teixeira and A-Rod locked up, they can’t put him in a corner, so I do think that they will not be a major bidder for [Matt] Holliday or Bay. Maybe I’ll be surprised, but I don’t think so.
Buster, I’m about to give you a new job here, get ready for this. I know I haven’t prepped you on this, but you are no longer ESPN baseball analyst, you are now the general manager of the Boston Red Sox. What are you going to do in the offseason, general manager Olney, to get the Red Sox back to the World Series?
I’m calling the Florida Marlins about Jeremy Hermida, who’s going to be one of these guys who might be non-tendered. I’m calling and trying to pluck the best of those guys, and I guarantee you Theo [Epstein]’s been doing that, in talking with general managers around the game. They say this is a really heavy part of the conversation right now. I don’t think they’re in a position at this moment to make a dynamic huge move. Idiots like me might say go get Prince Fielder, go sign John Lackey. I think they’re going to be laying back a little bit. Next year’s going to be somewhat of a transition year as they work through the last years of the contracts for Ortiz and Mike Lowell, and I don’t think they’re in a position really to do really what they’re going to need to do to upgrade their offense. I think next year’s going to be another sort of plug-and-fill year, and they’re going to have to do more incremental-type stuff like adding a promising young player like Jeremy Hermida.
I’m going to throw some names out here, and just tell me about the possibility or the viability of these guys being available. One is Felix Hernandez, two is Adrian Gonzalez, three is Miguel Cabrera and four is former Red Sox Hanley Ramirez.
One, I think if you’re going to get Hanley Ramirez, you basically have to throw the entire farm system at the Marlins. He’s hugely important to them, especially since they are getting ready to open up a new ballpark. I know the Red Sox and Marlins had a conversation lasted about .2 seconds about Hanley Ramirez last year. Unless the Marlins get into some serious financial situations, I just can’t see it happening and I can’t see Theo now, given where the Red Sox farm system is, I don’t see him suddenly just stripping down everything to get that one player especially with the young Cuban shortstop they have coming up that everyone just raves about. Miguel Cabrera, it all depends on whether Mike Ilitch, the Tigers owner, decides that he’s got to slash payroll, and we have no indication that’s the case. During the summertime, Magglio Ordonez, they allowed him to reach a vesting option for $18 million when everyone else in baseball thought they were crazy to do so, so it seems like Ilitch has no problem putting money down a drain. Felix Hernandez, I think the Mariners are going to make a sincere effort to sign him, and my gut is that they’re going to work it out. I think the Mariners know that he’s going to cost about $100 million. And Adrian Gonzalez, again, it’s a little bit like the Hanley Ramirez thing, certainly he wouldn’t be as expensive in terms of prospects, but if you’re the Red Sox, do you want to give up a boatload of prospects for him or do you want to just bide your time and wait for another first baseman to come around, because you know that Jed Hoyer, going into that job, is going to ask for an arm and a leg. And, he’s not expensive. It’s not like he’s sitting there with a $15 million contract, he’s only making $4 million, so you literally have to overpay to get him away from the Padres.
Well, asking you, Buster Olney, the general manager of the Boston Red Sox, this simple question: Are either Mike Lowell or David Ortiz tradeable?
No, they are not. You basically would have to eat a huge chunk of the contract to make them go away, and let’s face it … I think spring training, if not sooner, there will probably be an evaluation process where they will look at them and decide, you know what, should we just eat the money sooner or should we do it later, and we’ll see. I’m convinced that one of those two guys is not going to finish next year with the Red Sox.
Josh Beckett in town here the last couple of days said that he and his agent are going to begin conversations with the Red Sox very soon about the possibility of a contract extension, he reiterated his desire to continue on here. Do you feel that will get done?
If he’s looking for a CC Sabathia-type deal, no, he won’t. That’s not the Boston style for doing things, and given the fact he’s a little older than CC was when he became a free agent, it might be like John Lackey, where we’re seeing the Angels basically draw a line in the sand, think their offer was something in the range of four years and $60 million, and they’re telling him, “Look, we love you, we value you, but we’re not going to overpay to keep you.” And the number might be higher than the 60 million from the Red Sox to Beckett but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar stance from them where they place a value on him, maybe that’s five years and 75, tell him, “This is where we’re going, and if it’s not good enough, well, we love you Josh and good luck to you.”
You said earlier, if the Yankees want John Lackey they’ll get him. Do they want him?
I don’t know, my instinct is no, because they’ve got Joba Chamberlain coming up and certainly Phil Hughes. They can look at guys developing, but we saw during the postseason they are kind of having this issue with the back end of their rotation. Chien-Ming Wang is a real strong candidate to not be tendered a contract by the Yankees, they got a hole at the back end of the rotation. So, Lackey is going to be looking to get paid by somebody, and we saw with the Teixeira thing — I don’t think as the winter began the Yankees were like, “Let’s throw $180 million at Mark Teixeira,” but I think as they assessed the market they were like, “You know what? We got the money, let’s go get him.” And I think the real question on Lackey is going to be which team is going to give him a five-year, $60 million deal like Burnett. Last year it was the Yankees who went the extra mile to go get him, and it wouldn’t stun me if the market on Lackey kind of hangs around on 60 million, if the Yankees look at that and say, “You know what, let’s go get him. We made a lot of money, we could use him, we’re paying our luxury tax, let’s add to the back end of the rotation.”
Is it possible that the Yankees’ financial situation is not as good as we think it is? We see all those empty seats and those expensive seats around home plate, we know that Brian Cashman continues to talk about getting the payroll below $200 million. Are they maybe not as flush as we may think?
No, I think they’re doing pretty well, because of the network. And I don’t pretend to know what’s in the books, but from what I read, the network is now worth over a billion dollars. I mean, think about that, they now have a completely separate entity, they’re doing extremely well on all parts of it, all facets. The seats certainly look ugly, but I think that’s related to the fact that the tickets clearly were overpriced given where the economy was. I think next year those seats are going to be filled and coming off the championship. They’re probably going to sell out most of their games.
We know the Yankees still have some youth in [Robinson] Cano, they have some relative youth in CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira, they also have some age. If you are looking ahead to 2010, they just won the World Series, are they the favorites to do it again?
Yeah, I think they would be. And the Phillies would go in next year as the favorites to win the National League. Yeah, that’s one of the big questions going forward, besides the back end of the rotation, is when does the age manifest itself? And it will at some point. Derek Jeter has worked really hard the last two offseasons, but within the next two or three years, he’s not going to be good enough to play shortstop. Alex Rodriguez, you guys could see it this year coming off hip surgery, he looked stiff. Does he really begin to lose a lot of his lateral movement the way you guys saw in Mike Lowell this year. When are other guys going to regress? But let’s face it. I mean, they’ve got so much money, and they have the ability to plug those holes quicker than any other team, and I expect that they, like the Red Sox, are going to take advantage of this situation with the arbitration-eligible players and you might see them going out and trying to add a guy like Jeremy Hermida, plucking the best of those 3-5-year guys from the small-market teams.
I have a feeling your offseason’s going to last about three days.
How about three minutes? Waking up this morning and hearing the Royals may be trading Mark Teahan to the White Sox today, and I’m like, “Oh boy, here we go.”
Yeah, there is no offseason for you, right?
You know, it’s interesting, I talked to Brian Cashman two days ago, and he was sort of like, “Hey, what do you hear out there,” and I talked about the non-tender thing. And he said, “Boy, I kind of wish I had more time to get into it, but I don’t.” And I guarantee that today after he picks up his kids from school, he’ll be making phone calls and jumping into that market. It just doesn‘t stop now.
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November 5th, 2009 at 8:22 pm
Lets get Jason Bay signed we need his bat and hope the Yankees pass on him
because they will top our offer every time.