| Why the Red Sox Would Pay to Shop Lowell | 11.23.09 at 3:44 am ET |
According to FoxSports.com, the Red Sox are offering Mike Lowell to other clubs and offering to pick up $6 million of his $12 million salary in 2010. Even so, the report cited a rival executive who suggested that other teams would not be inclined to pick up that much of the third baseman’s salary for next year.
Lowell is entering the final season of a three-year, $37.5 million deal he signed after the 2007 World Series. The 35-year-old hit .290 with a .337 OBP, .474 slugging percentage and .811 OPS in 2009 while hitting 17 homers and driving in 75 runs. He was limited to 119 games in his first season following surgery on his right hip labrum after the 2008 campaign.
That said, for much of the year, his overall offensive numbers suggested a highly productive member of the lineup. He hit at least .300 in four of the six full calendar months of the season; his OPS also exceeded .800 in four months, and was actually .900 or better in three months. The only two months in which his numbers dipped — June (.206 average, .595 OPS) and Sept./Oct. (.239, .633) — coincided with periods when his recovery from hip surgery required him to have fluid drained and the lubricant Synvisc to be injected to ease the discomfort in his hip.
By and large, he was a productive member of the lineup. Even so, since the time of GM Theo Epstein‘s press conference analyzing the state of the Sox following the 2009 season, Lowell’s place and role on the 2010 club has seemed uncertain. Asked to identify what the Sox could improve upon for 2010, Epstein suggested the following:
“There are a lot of different ways to get better,” said Epstein. “Probably start by looking at our weaknesses because there is the greatest room for improvement there. If you look back at this year’s club, we weren’t as great a defensive club as we wanted to be. So look at overall team defense and defensive efficiency. Then offense on the road. We didn’t really hit at all on the road this season.”
Lowell was part of both of those shortcomings. His defense was obviously impaired by his recovery from surgery. He went from being a well above-average third baseman (as measured by UZR and John Dewan’s plus-minus ratings) throughout his career from being one of the worst in the majors, particularly on balls hit to his left (an unsurprising result of the weakness in his right hip).
As for his home/road splits, Lowell was a monster at Fenway, hitting .307/.344/.588/.932, but on the road, he hit .276/.331/.382/.713. Of Boston’s everyday players, only Jason Varitek had a more dramatic disparity in his home/road numbers. (Though Lowell is a right-handed pull-hitter, it is worth noting that he’s alternated between being a better home and road hitter in his four seasons with the Sox.)
Both Lowell and the Sox have said that they expect that his hip will be in better shape for the 2010 season than it was in 2009. Last offseason, Lowell could do nothing but worry about the recovery of his hip. As he said on multiple occasions, he would not be able to strengthen the joint until this winter.
Even so, Lowell will be 36 in 2010. Even if he is able to improve from his surgery, the Sox have been non-committal about what to expect from him next season.
“He will grind it out everyday but at what point does that become a hindrance to his performance?” manager Terry Francona mused last month. “I think we saw that happen this year too. I think we all feel, including Mike, the medical people and us that he will be better situated next year. Now, stating the obvious, as guys get older, where do you balance the surgery, guy becoming a certain age and another year of wear and tear.”
Given all those factors, it is anything but surprising to hear that Lowell is being made available in a subsidized trade this offseason. After all, the Sox already had shown a willingness to move on from the 2007 World Series MVP last offseason, when they pursued Mark Teixeira.
If the Sox acquire a first baseman such as Adrian Gonzalez this offseason, then Kevin Youkilis could be moved to third, and Lowell would become expendable. But given the role that Lowell played in two of the areas that the Sox hope to improve upon in 2010, he likely will remain in a familiar position of limbo this offseason, regardless of whether the Sox bring back an All-Star like Gonzalez or not.
Then again, Lowell spent this decade as an almost perennial presence in the rumor mill, yet he was dealt just once during that time. So, even though initial signals would suggest that the Sox are open to moving Lowell, it remains to be seen whether that sound and fury will signify anything.
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