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Will They Hit? A Look at the New (Current) Red Sox Lineup 12.17.09 at 1:15 pm ET
By Alex Speier
Mike Cameron is a key part of the Red Sox' new offense. (AP)

Mike Cameron is a key part of the Red Sox' new offense. (AP)

Gone are the Days of Thunder at Fenway Park … at least for now.

The newly reshaped Red Sox will not be confused for the group that typically bludgeoned opponents into submission in previous years, most notably from 2003-05, when the team cleared 900 runs a year with seeming ease. Nor will next year’s bunch — as currently constructed — be confused for the 2009 edition of the Red Sox. As of this moment, the Sox have effectively replaced Jason Bay, Mike Lowell and a revolving door at shortstop with Mike Cameron, Casey Kotchman and Marco Scutaro.

As general manager Theo Epstein articulated Wednesday, this has been part of a strategy in which the Sox have focused over $100 million this offseason in an effort by the Sox to shut down other teams’ offenses.

John Lackey is a big part of that. So, too, is outfielder Cameron — long viewed as one of the best defensive outfielders in the game — and shortstop Scutaro, who even if a tick below Alex Gonzalez defensively, is still likely an upgrade over what the Sox fielded at the position over the full course of 2009 (Nick Green, Julio Lugo, Jed Lowrie, Gonzalez).

“I know a lot of emphasis, a lot of talk, was centered on our offense last year. What’s lost in the mix is our run prevention needs to improve as well. We were one of the worst defensive clubs in baseball last year and we think Mike is a very important piece [in improving],” said Epstein. “I think there are a couple of parts that will allow us to throw a really good team defense out there which will help our pitching staff, help our run prevention.”

Even so, defensive upgrades aren’t helpful if you can’t outscore your opponent. Even Zack Greinke, the best pitcher in the majors in 2009, went just 16-8 due to non-existent run support from the Royals. All of that raises the question: what can be expected from the Red Sox offense in 2010?

Barring a move to add a bat — and by all indications, Adrian Gonzalez isn’t walking through that door anytime soon, at least this offseason — there is little question that the Sox’ offense will take a bit of a hit. The move to replace Jason Bay with Cameron in left is a defense-first move. So, too, is the team’s willingness to move Mike Lowell to Texas so that Kevin Youkilis can cross the diamond from first to third, thus resulting in Casey Kotchman — at least for now — being penciled in as the Sox’ starting first baseman.

Cameron hit .250/.342/.452/.795 last year with the Brewers, almost perfectly in line with his career line of .250/.340/.448/.788. He has, in the words of GM Theo Epstein, “serious juice” in his bat, resulting in 20-25 homers almost every year. The he strikes out about once a game, Cameron works deep counts, meaning that he plays into the Sox’ typical gameplan of driving starters out of games early.

“We think he’s an underrated offensive players,” said Epstein. “He gets his 20 to 25 home runs a year, a very consistent performer. He’s a threat out there. He’s not somebody that pitchers can take lightly. He’s got serious juice. Primarily a pull guy, he fits perfectly into Fenway Park and as he said could put some dents in the wall or over. And he sees a lot of pitches. Mike takes his walks, and I know he strikes out a lot but that doesn’t scare us. We have a lot of productive hitters here who have struck out a lot. Strikeouts are OK as long as they come, as they often do, with walks and home runs. And in Mike’s case, they certainly do.”

The Sox also feel that Kotchman has potential to be a solid if unspectacular offensive contributor. In 2007, at the age of 24, he hit .296/.372/.467/.840, numbers that resulted in him being the centerpiece of the Angels’ deal for Mark Teixeira the following year. He is still just 26 and entering his prime years.

Even though he struggled in a part-time role with the Red Sox last year, and his power is not what you would ordinarily expect from a first baseman, Kotchman has been a tough at-bat in the past, and the Sox believe that he can build on his career .269/.337/.406/.742 line. The Sox are comfortable with the idea of having him be their starting first baseman next year.

“He’s a good example of a player who has a chance to go out and build some value by playing,” said Epstein. “He didn’t get an opportunity to play here, but he’s outstanding defensively, he’s somebody who’s a tougher out than the numbers indicate. He can hit really good pitching. He’s really tough to get to swing and miss. We think there’s a lot of offensive potential there. If we end up with him playing a lot of first base against right-handed pitching, we have a chance to duplicate or build off what he did in 2007 for example, that’s a great solution.”

Even so, there is no doubt that a lineup featuring Kotchman and Cameron rather than Bay and Lowell will take a hit. Even so, any offensive decline for the Sox might be softened by the addition of Scutaro, who — even if he fails to replicate his 2009 career year (.379 OBP, .789 OPS) with the Blue Jays, and instead comes closer to his career norms (.337 OBP, .721 OPS) — will represent a huge upgrade over the Sox’ offensive struggles from the shortstop position in 2009.

Last week, before the agreement to trade Lowell (still waiting to be finalized) and the signing of Cameron, we looked at what the Red Sox lineup might look like in 2010 with or without Bay. Plugging Cameron into the lineup reveals a fairly similar outcome — that the Sox, if Kotchman, Scutaro and Cameron can perform at their career average levels, will be a slightly but not significantly worse offense club in 2010 than they were in 2009.

Assuming that every Red Sox lineup holdovers — Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz and J.D. Drew — performs at his 2009 level next year, and that Cameron, Kotchman and Scutaro performed at their career averages, the Red Sox starting nine would project (according to the amazing baseballmusings.com Lineup Analysis tool) to score 5.646 runs per game. Over a full year, that would project to a whopping 915 runs.

That is not quite the production that the Sox would get with Bay, Lowell and the team’s season-long shortstop output. Such a group would project to score 5.735 runs a game, or 929 runs over the full year, according to the same Lineup Analysis tool. (Note: this total is greater than what the Sox actually scored for a couple reasons: 1) It features a full season of Victor Martinez behind the plate, rather than the Sox’ actual team, which featured Jason Varitek and George Kottaras for two-thirds of the season. 2) It assumes that the Sox regulars all play 162 games; days of rest and time on the disabled list will push this expectation down.)

If the Sox remain unchanged, then it would seem fair to expect some drop in run production. The team, which scored 850 runs, might be conservatively estimated to score about 850 runs (though there is a decent chance that, with a full season from Victor Martinez, some improvement in David Ortiz’ year-long totals, and continued improvement from Jacoby Ellsbury, that number could be higher). The lineup would still feature a bunch of tough outs, and would likely be one of the best handful of offenses in the American League.

That, the team believes, would be more than enough to win given the improvement in the team’s run prevention.

And if it doesn’t? Then the team feels like, after preserving all of its top prospects, it would be in a position to add a bat once the season is underway.

“I think we like the pieces that we have right now,” said Epstein. “I think generally speaking it’s easier to add a bat during the season, so I think our pitching staff is going to be extraordinarily deep, so if we do go into the season with a mix similar to what we have right now, and if the need for a bigger bat does develop, I think that’s something we can address during the season. By no means am I saying we’re done, but I also don’t feel so rushed to go out there and do something dramatic.”

Read More: Casey Kotchman, Jacoby Ellsbury, marco scutaro, mike cameron Print  |  Email  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
  • rudy laurens

    If that’s really going to be the lineup that’s going to be a joke of a lineup cameron??? Kotchman??? Scutaro yep goodluck against the yanks next year what good is defense when you can’t score runs!!

  • Mike Ketchen

    They gave 1000 AB’s to Lugo/Tek/Lowrie/Green and still were one of two teams to crack an .800ops. They are going to have a full year of Vmart as well as Scutaro and Cameron. Sure, the Bay moves hurts in the tradiontal numbers. But this “IS” a better offensive team today then last season.

  • anguillaman

    If Kotchman is our first baseman…and we lost at least 14 HR”S losing Bay..and we lose the POP that Lowell has always provided…NO DON”T EXPECT a very good offense.

  • Jack Frost

    Baseball defense is not like football defense, I dont know what the hell all this hype is about, Red Sox don’t even have a big bat in their lineup that is embarrassing, Get a new GM this one doesnt know what the hell he is doing, YOUR OFFENSE IS THE REASON WHY YOU WON TWO GOD DAM WORLD SERIES. Yes your pitching helped a lot but if you had a scrub lineup like this it would of went no where. GET YOUR HEAD OUT OF THE CLOUDS.

  • Jim G

    Not a good idea to use Greinke’s W-L record to support your argument. He won 2 out 3 decisions. That translates to 109 regular season wins and a successful World Series win.

  • Angela

    Lowell hit better last year than Cameron did or Kotchman. Lowell hit 51 points higher than Cameron. That’s not counting Bay’s 104 runs, 119 RBI and 36 homers and 30 pints better career batting average.
    Bay beats Cameron in career average, runs scored, RBI, homers OBP, OPS, and even stolen base percentage, and is 6 years younger.
    Plus, Cameron was suspended for 25 games in 2008 for using banned substances.
    Sounds like Alex is drinking the Theo Koolaide.

  • Luke

    We are in for watching great pitching and great defense. That being said, with no feared power hitter in the middle of the lineup (assuming Ortiz isn’t back to his old self) then the rest of this lineup will suffer. Without that power in the middle of the lineup Youk/Ortiz/VMart/Drew/Pedroia (interchangeable 3-6) will not see good pitches on a consistent basis. We forget how incredible this offense was when Manny and Ortiz were holding down the fort and the guys around them were benefiting greatly. I’m not saying we aren’t going to win, it just means we will win 3-2 instead of 7-2. My vote is to get Gonzalez just like everyone else, but by all reports this isn’t going to happen before spring training. Yet you never know what’s going to happen as been so evidently demonstrated this offseason.

  • wally

    What feared power hitter did we have in the lineup last year? The lineup that was 3rd in the league for runs scored. Bay? Is a full year of Victor instead of Tek and Scutaro instead of Green not going to balance out the loss of Bay? Is Lackey going to post a higher ERA than Penny? Is Buchholz going to get shelled worse than Smoltz? This team is exactly where it was last year in offense and vastly better in defense and pitching. And who knows, Theo may not be finished just yet.

  • eman

    Nice job Wally…finally someone who actually thinks about things before typing something on here. My god…Theo helped the Sox win 2 freaken championships and people bash him??? I cant tell you how many people, including me thought he was nuts trading Nomar for Doug Mientkiewcz, and Orlando Cabrera. I am not saying a big time hitter wouldn’t help, but to drill the guy for what he has done so far is crazy. Does anyone believe he is done making moves for the year??

  • rudy laurens

    Exactly there isn’t one positive post about this line up and why should there be one, if you look at the past 8 years the red sox had personality you had manny and david as face of the franchise, you had millar you had bay and ortiz, I can’t stand the yankees but look at their lineup you have jeter, a rod, and tex that’s the face of the Yankees also joba but so FAR our line up for opening day looks flat and top it off we open baseball season with the yankees in fenway park am I lying or do you expect a loss to start the season… Thanks theo and company!!!

  • Zach

    They’ve gone from trying to win games 8-6 to trying to win them 4-2. Doesn’t matter how you do it as long as the end result is that you score more runs than the other guys. Hitting home runs might be the sexy thing and the thing that sells t-shirts but trotting out a shut-down pitcher every day or almost every day is just as effective.

  • Tony from Bridgewater

    AMEN my friend! Zach makes sense. WIINING is all that matters. Fans love the long ball, but like we seen for soooooooo many years pitching is what brings the trophies home. It truly makes no difference how they do it as long as they do it. Do not dismiss the bullpen also. By getting another 7 inning pitcher (Lackey) this will shorten the bullpen and make those relievers more effective. Just like the Whitesox did it in 2005. I think in that World Series all 4 starters picthed complete games, BUT throughtout the season it was the rested bullpen that propelled them. They had the #1 bullpen in baseball only because it was rested all year. In 2006 those starters went south and all of a sudden the bullpen sucks? PITCHING, PITCHING, PITCHING is what it’s all about when you talk World Series.

  • Brenton

    The Red Sox have 5 Starters with a legitimate chance to pitch the full season with an ERA under 4.00. I think it is almost given to expect Lester, Beckett and Lackey to be sub 4, if not sub 3.50. Dice-k and Buchholz could certainly be sub 4 as well….Dicek put up 2.90 2 years ago and Buchholz had a 10 game stretch last year where he put up a 2.37 era, including starts against Sabathia, Doc, Verlander, Garza…..he’s pretty much faced the ace of every team and went pitch for pitch with them. Yes, he can get shelled at times, but he proved himself in that stretch (that era is including a game in which gave up 7 runs). If you think of Jon Lester’s last 2 seasons…he’s had an era of around 6.00 after 6 or 7 weeks of the season and came out with an era in the lower 3′s. People often forget that these guys are still learning and adapting to the MLB and have tough stretches at times, but when they can go on stretches of 10-15 games where they are virtually unhittable……..trading Buchholz, Ellsbury and prospects for a bat would be financial and talent suicide for this team’s future.

  • RedHawk

    For those saying the Sox don’t have a big bat, are we forgetting Kevin Youkilis? The only hitter in the AL with a better OPS last year was Joe Mauer. The guy is, and has been the last 2-3 years, an elite hitter.

    Last year’s offense featured three of the top ten in the AL in OPS (Youk, Bay, Drew) and they’re returning two of them. They’re adding Victor Martinez for a full season (instead of Captain Corpse…errr…Varitek). Scutaro is worlds better than the crap they had playing SS, even if he regresses to his own career averages. David Ortiz is bound to bounce back a bit. The loss of Jason Bay (and Mike Lowell) will not turn this team into a destitute offensive team. They’ll still be a top 5 offense scoring 800+ runs…with a pitching/defense combo that will give up a lot less than they did last year.

    They’ll be fine.

  • http://aol royal rooter

    With all this talk about great defensive team VMart is still behind the plate. I would hardly call him great and at best is about equal to Jorgie.

  • dan

    im just going to put it like this. i am a die hard sox fan and have been for years. like the rest of you nothing would make me happier for the soxs to win the world series this up coming year. all ive seen posted this offseason are remarks towards theo telling him to spend every penny and trade away every prospect that we have in order to put out a domminant team for next year, maybe two. the sad part about all of these comments is that just becasue we won 2 title this decade sox fans became pretty arrogant and expect the sox to do what the yankees do and spend all the money and trade away young future stars. sorry but id rather the sox put up a good team of our own players and win the title the right way instead of buying it, rememebr when a sox fan used to mock the yankees and other teams for ” buying ” a title. now thats what red sox fans are asking the team to do. let them do theyre jobs and we will win titles, maybe not every year. But we will get them.

  • 4tek33

    Good Article! I believe what you say is true, but they need to survive 160+ games if not it doesn’t really matter. Last year the Red Sox started off with a bang and by the end of the season it look obvious (atleast to me) that the bats were dropping, they just looked tired. Can these guys last the season? Tito has to manage this…especially the older guys. Another thought, if THeo stops now, which i think he has something else up his sleeve….we are going all the way. Losing Mikey, a great leader in the clubhouse, is hard to take but unfornately is was the right thing to do. I will miss him he will always mean a lot to the nation!! JBay was nice to have but as we all say this is a business too. I wish him the best! GO SOX!

  • Mike

    Man, there is a lot of negative postings here. I think Theo has made great decisions his whole time in Boston. You have to have the ability to see past you own nose. You cant sell your future on a couple of players. Bay is no superstar! He strikes out more than than Cameron and has a squirt gun for an arm (Bay SO 162 in 531 AB; Cameron SO 156 in 544 AB) but he cost way less. The Sox have a few Minor league players that can play LF in the next few years so why lock Bay in long term? I think he has great character but he wants a superstars contract except he isn’t one. Pitching wins ball games! This is true in little league on up. I like Mike Lowell as a player and have to believe that trading him is part of something bigger, especially since the Sox are willing to eat a big part of his contract. Trading Ellsbury is a crazy idea and wow people would complain if Bucholtz turns into a pitcher of Lesters quality. For crying out loud Ellsbury has the ability to turn a walk or single into a double about 90% of the time. I would rather the Sox sign or develope a bunch of .300 hitters than fill their squad with homrun hitters. Home runs are way over rated.

  • Chris

    When you pay the highest ticket prices in the game you expect the team to put a repectable line up on the field. Not saying this line up is horrible but it sure doesn’t look great on paper. This team is in a scary place right now. It could be real good with great pitching or also could lose a boat load of games 3-2. That’s what scares me. Pitching does win championships but you have to score runs to beat teams like the Yankees. I see a tough long year ahead for this team with the lineup as it’s constituted. I predict this team will have one of the best team era’s in the majors but will win less than 90 games. I hope I’m wrong. Like I said earlier expect a ton of 3-2 4-1 losses for this team.

  • Mike

    The Sox have the highest ticket prices but also have the one of the lowest capacities. So in the end a bunch of teams get more money in ticket sales than the Sox. Its unreal to think the Sox can keep up with the Yankees in terms of Salary (the Yankees rule the world in merchandise sales). If Kotchman can hit near .300 and Cameron hits 20+ homers in the 8th or 9th spot in the order than that isnt bad. I’m not a huge fan of Scuturo and thought that Dustin at short and signing a new 2nd baseman was an intriguing idea. But that being said I doubt Scuturo will play worse than what we’ve had the past few years. If Ortiz can hit for a higher average that would be a huge lift. I really don’t see Bay as a huge loss. He was streaky as anyone I’ve ever seen and struck out a TON! If you think about the times the Sox have lost in the playoffs the last 5 years it was because of good pitching beating good hitting. The Angels didn’t really have any superstar offensive players last year but scored more runs than the Sox did. On top of that they beat us in the playoffs. Of course they got beat by the Yankees but the Yankees pitching was HOT in the playoffs.

  • john doe

    Those are a lot of if’s in that last statement. Last year “if” Penny and Smoltz worked out it would have been a better season. The point is your lineup statistically wise is worse than last season. You cannot go into the season with “IF’s.” Plus you were dead wrong when you said the Angels didnt have a great offense last year they had like 7 guys hit over 300 compared to the red sox 3. You cannot go out and sign a 250 hitter and expect more out of him just because he joined your team. The fact is this offense will be below average and wont get better unless upper management decides to do something about it.

  • BenInL.A.

    I think the most important remaining move, outside of a Beckett extension, is an insurance policy from Lloyd’s of London on Kevin Youkilis’ being healthy enough to play 150+ games.

  • http://goldy1935@aol.com Frank G

    We at least are equal to the Yankees now in pitching and possibly a little better.If Theo can add one power hitter a 30 home run guy we would have a good shot to go all the way. I think diceK bounces back with a good year.

  • Tony B

    it doesnt matter if your pitching and defense hold every team they play to 2 or 3 runs when we can only score 1 or 2. it all comes down to scoring more than your opponent. yes our pitching is better and our defense is much better. and yes run prevention is better but the offense is much worse. we lost in the playoffs last year not because we didnt pitch well or field well. we lost because we couldnt hit the ball. and that part of our team has gotten worse.

  • Boston

    The Red Sox will no doubt add a bat. They aren’t going to spend 82 million on Lackey and bring in other pieces of the puzzle just so they can bow out prematurely. It is called posturing..the Red Sox need a big bat like Gonzalez if they want to be a serious threat. What is scary is that minus Bay, picking up Gonzalez is basically getting back to even from last year. I suppose an extra 13 homeruns from Cameron would be the only plus so they have potential to be slightly better than last year on offense.

    What the Red Sox should have done is kept Bay, gotten Cameron and traded for Gonzalez. Period. They would have spent an extra what 15 million a year, and subtract at least 8 million off of the 15 for a scrub player…wow 7 million dollars more a year to have kept Bay as a #5 or 6 hitter. Thanks Theo.

    Our offense sputtered against good pitching last year. I don’t understand how addition through subtraction makes sense. You get rid of Bay and leave a huge void..so you feel that void with Gonzalez..but the whole point is that their offense was lacking last year. So simply by moving one bat to get another does not help.

  • Tom from Boston

    i doubt that they will hit
    Theo needs to make two more moves
    one for a starting pitcher so when wakefield goes on the Dl and so will Dice-K and one move for a hitter

  • http://www.redsox.com Boston Paulie

    LETS start all this out with…many of you are just STUPID….The REDSOX were 3rd in runs scored…remember that????? MOST of you ONLY remember the Angels SWEEPING them in the playoffs….GET REAL….I’m sure a lot of you are just YOUNG STUPID KIDS that don’t remember the 70′s or 80′s.The REDSOX are TRYING to be a GREAT team defensively….since they were 2ND worst last season.Jason Bay is not a GOOD defensive outfielder outside of FENWAY.If he was so awesome…why does he have to go to the highest bidder(METS)…He hits well and strikes out alot and plays the MONSTER as well as MANNY did.Don’t you think he would have alot more teams interested if he was a TIER 1 PLAYER….????? Same goes for Matt Holliday…BORAS CLIENT that isn’t getting any LOVE….NO MARK TEXEIRA $$$$ for either of them…and rightyly so…neither is worth it.ADDING Lackey was smart.No need to give up prospects that you can USE at the TRADE DEADLINE to POSSIBLY acquire ADRIAN GONZALEZ from SD after they fall out of the race…..JED HOYER is the new GM and since he knows the RS system….he wont give up ADRIAN for a bag of balls…HE EXPECTS AND WILL GET QUALITY !!!!! So now that I have SCHOOLED all the DUMB people……I’d like to hear from the reasonable people.

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/22/sox-rank-fourth-in-mlb-payroll-in-09/ peter

    lol hey does it matter if they can hit or not if the other team cant score but anyways everybody on that team can hit 80 RBI’S and a 400 On Base Percentage i think theyll do well just evan though they dont have bay thier new outfelieder cameron look at his stats he is a big clutch hitter he can get 90 RBI’S and a 400 On Base Percentage plus hes a gold glover so i think the sox will be alright

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/22/sox-rank-fourth-in-mlb-payroll-in-09/ peter

    and I agree with you boston paulie

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