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Why the Bay Deal Made Sense for Both Sides 12.31.09 at 4:28 pm ET
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Had Jason Bay re-signed with the Red Sox, the deal likely would have been heralded. The idea that a slugger who seemed to fit perfectly into the Red Sox lineup, ballpark and clubhouse had come to an agreement to return made enormous sense. Through most of 2009, the industry-wide expectation was that the outfielder would be back.

But when that turned out not to be the case, and Bay instead landed with the Mets, the reaction was far less enthusiastic. Suggestions in the aftermath of the four-year, $66 million deal that includes a vesting option that can push the deal to approximately $80 million over five years are widespread that a) the Mets had failed to address their most significant deficiency, b) Bay had no interest in going to the Mets, and only went because no other legitimate options existed, and c) Citi Field is a park that is death to homers and demands defense for the expansive left field, thus diminishing one of Bay’s foremost assets (power) and accentuating one of his chief liabilities (defense).

A few thoughts on each:

–At the start of the offseason, multiple rival executives believed that the Mets wouldn’t get in the bidding for Bay due to their acute need for pitching. And when the Mets arrived at the Winter Meetings, they didn’t necessarily disagree. But New York looked at a landscape in which the top pitcher (John Lackey) was going to command a larger contract than Bay both in years and dollars.

The other free-agent pitchers — hurlers along the lines of Joel Pineiro and Jason Marquis, among others — were looking for the types of commitments that made the gap in annual salary between them and the top-of-the-market players (Bay, Lackey, Matt Holliday) relatively negligible considering the difference in impact.

Given that the health of pitchers in their 30s over a four- or five-year deal is almost always a riskier proposition than that of hitters, and that negotiations for Holliday (with agent Scott Boras) seemed likely to be protracted and filled with demands for Mark Teixeira-type money, Bay represented, to the Mets, a superior balance of risk, impact and investment size.

Even so, the Mets were under no illusions that their pitching staff is without flaws. That said, adding another pitcher would only do so much to boost a staff that has one front-line pitcher (Johan Santana) and a bunch of question marks. Adding a slugger — especially one who with the ability to produce at Citi Field (more on that in a bit) — offered the possibility of transforming the Mets offense from decent (assuming that Jose Reyes returns and approximates his prior career performance) to elite. And the Mets arguably had more room to upgrade their lineup of 2009 than they did their run prevention, since New York scored 671 runs last year, 12th among the 16 N.L. teams. By contrast, the team’s pitching permitted 757 runs, a mark that ranked ninth.

The team felt it looked better with Bay in the lineup than with Lackey in the rotation. And while there is risk on the pitching staff, there have been other recent seasons when the current pitching group has been above average: in 2008, for instance, Santana was brilliant (2.53 ERA), while Mike Pelfrey (3.72), Oliver Perez (4.22) and John Maine (4.18) all had an above-average ERA+. There is no doubt that there are significant question marks looming over Pelfrey, Perez and Maine going forward. But there is also a chance that the trio could be adequate to put the Mets in position where a significant jump in offense (with healthy seasons from Reyes and Carlos Beltran) could be enough to help the team improve significantly.

–The notion that Bay had no — or even limited — interest in the Mets was inaccurate, according to a source familiar with the negotiations. There is little question that Bay’s agent, Joe Urbon, tried to engage other clubs, but that is a common practice in free agency. According to the same source, when the Mets presented their offer, they received assurances of Bay’s interest in going to the team, and the two sides remained in near constant dialogue until an agreement was reached. The suggestion that the two sides experienced a lengthy period of non-contact while Urbon contacted other clubs was inaccurate, with there having been just one day when the two sides were not in contact.

Once the Mets broke the four-year threshold of the Sox’ offer by offering Bay a vesting option for a fifth year, it was reasonable for Bay to see if he could find a contract that included a fifth guaranteed year. Had that happened, the Mets might well have sweetened their offer to include a guaranteed fifth year. But, since there was no evidence of an offer by any other club for more than four years, and since Bay had rejected the Red Sox offer, the Mets could hold to the original framework that they proposed, and finalize the deal by a slight improvement in the guaranteed money and making the vesting option more attractive. (Contrary to some reports, the Mets never offered a deal that featured a guaranteed fifth year.)

And, in some ways, it is only appropriate that Bay would get an extra year based on a vesting option that is dependent on his health. After all, Urbon made the case to clubs that Bay was the durable and productive outfielder on the market. If he is confident of retaining that status, then he should feel confident in achieving the terms of the vesting option.

–As for the Citi Field impact on Bay, time will tell. It may be somewhat premature to characterize the park solely on the basis of its one-year existence.

That said, the Mets found that while the park plays big to the alleys and centerfield, that it is generous to right-handed pull power. The first year at Citi Field featured 10 percent more homers to left field than the average park, according to a source. Bay hit 22 of his 36 homers to left in 2009, another dozen to center and just two to the opposite field.

And, Bay’s power was anything but a byproduct of Fenway Park. Of his 36 homers in 2009, 21 of them came on the road.

While David Wright became a posterboy for the notion that the cavernous Citi Field was death to right-handed power hitters thanks to a precipitous drop from 33 homers in 2008 to 10 in 1009, his first in his new home park, the park does not account for the fact that Wright’s road homer total fell from 12 in 2008 to five in 2009. In many respects, it appears that Wright, in an otherwise strong year (.307 average, .390 OBP), did not drive the ball in a manner consistent with his past performance.

In Bay, the Mets have acquired a player whom they believe can sustain his power numbers in their new park. As for criticisms about Bay’s defense, the Mets believe that they have been exaggerated. Fenway Park, of course, skews the defensive metrics of left fielders. Bay is likely a slightly below average defender in left, but not so poor that his glove would offset his considerable offensive production. If it did, one can bet that the Sox — who believe strongly in defensive metrics, as evidenced by this offseason’s overhaul — wouldn’t have put a four-year, $60 million offer on the table.

–In the end, the Mets decided that Bay represented the safest value-for-dollar player on the high-end of the free-agent scale. Bay, meanwhile, received a contract that includes a guarantee that was 10 percent higher (in total unadjusted dollars) than the last offer made by the Sox, and that includes the possibility of an extra year. Ultimately, that positioned the two sides to reach an agreement.

The wisdom of the deal will be tested over the coming four or five years, but at least initially, the fit between the player and his new club is probably better than what has been characterized. Bay is a player who has managed to thrive regardless of setting, who has adapted well to change throughout his career and who seems to enjoy playing in a charged atmosphere of a major market after years spent in baseball obscurity. The Mets acquired a player who should be able to handle the critical environment and whose game, they believe, will translate well to their park and team.

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  • SSC Mets

    Nice to see an objective analysis for once on the Bay-Mets deal instead of the screwy overwrought off-target venom spit out by the likes of Jeff Passan.

    As a Mets fan, I welcome this deal and Bay to NY. His steady offense will be a welcome addition to the lineup. And while his defense may not be gold glove caliber, his fielding woes have been overblown having probably been exacerbated by Fenway’s odd LF configuration. If one looks at his fielding stats, they were the worst of his career in Fenway and more or less about average at PNC park. I think his fielding will be fine at Citi Field.

    I’m looking forward to seeing Bay play for the Mets, as much for his reputed standup character as for his proven track record of performance on the field.

  • Vin

    Finally, a writer who is positive toward this deal. I as a Met fan dreamed of this deal since the offseason started. I believed Holliday was basically out of reach and Bay was actually fit better.

    His defense is not bad, even though most writers are blasting him for it (I doubt Holliday is much better anyway).

    As for the dimensions of Citi Field. I know this might sound a little crazy.. but it makes sense. In Fenway, the Left field wall (where Bay hit his hr’s) is very tall, correct? So he would have needed to be able to hit high hrs to left. Now, in Citi, the Left field wall is also high. Granted it is farther, and lower, but still fairly high. He is not a line drive home run hitter. He wont be greatly diminished by Citi Field. (Not to mention the other 81 games not at home)

  • Edward

    I wish him well. Too bad he didn’t realize that the best deal for him was what the Sox were offering early enough. Once it came clear, the Sox money was gone to Lackey and the Mets were the only option. Time will tell if it was good for the Mets or not.

  • Brye65

    I really think the Mets made the right decision. Defensively we know both Holliday and Bay are both average defenders for LF but did you know Holliday has committed more errors in the outfield than Bay. I really like Matt Holliday but can he hit Citi Field ? That’s 18 million tied up for at least 6 years if he can’t. He had a hard time hitting in Oakland. I do think if he spent the entire season with the Cards he would of had 36 HR’s. It comes down to this. Mets knew what they were getting with Bay and Holliday the wern’t sure what they were getting long term.

  • YanksWONTRepeat

    A player that goes to the Mets is a loser.

  • Marty

    The real loser is a fan who roots for a team that can only win a title through a huge huge payroll advantage or through steroids like the Yankees under Torre did.

    Hey, what did Mussina ever win with the Yankees despite them pouring mountains into the payroll while he was there? Nuthin! Loser!

  • http://metsrefugees.com jimmigan

    word to your mothers

  • http://www.metsfantalk.com metskid96

    Finally an excellent post that shows that Omar did make a good deal! You basicly typed the words out of my mouth! I could not agree with you more.

  • Angelo

    I think most Met fans are happy with Bay. Its a shame to see most of the “experts” in the media bash this move.

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    i dont think it was a good idea im a redsox fan and to be honest i dont want bay on the sox either but the deal with the mets wasnt good he isnt a good fielder he doesnt have a high average he strikes out a lot and his homeruns will go down like wrights did by about twenty i think it would of made more sense signing cameron for the mets hes cheap and he would be a good player because you dont have to sign him for long he has good feilding and OBP i personally think that the mets need someone like an ellsbury who has speed and can hit and feild because in that ball park theirs not going to be a lot f homeruns hit

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    i also think though it wasnt a good deal for the sox i dont think the sox should tie bay to a long contract when they have all these minor league outfeilders coming up and cameron and drews contracts will end in two years when that happens youll see all these prospects come up in the outfield and with bay idth it would of been good for the team if these prospects reach their potential

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    i do think that it would of made more sense number wise and for a few world series rings but the deal that the mets made was way better and im kinda glad it came down to this im not happy that they signed lackey as long as they did evan though i am glad to have him on our team i think its not good to sign a pitcher for that long when all these pitching prospects are coming up its maddening to see all these great prospects come up and being put in the bullpen

  • beacon

    whether the mets made a good deal or not I don’t know…I do know that bay fit in very well in boston and I am disappointed that he didn’t stay…the mets will be getting a great ‘character’ with bay in the clubhouse…but I know he isn’t worth the deal he got…cudos to him for finding a club to over pay him…I wish him well in NY…I agree with peter…boston does have a minor league system full of potentially good outfielders and wouldn’t make sense to tie someone up for five years…ells still has a few years before he is a free agent…I just wish bay’s desire to win a few WS rings before his career is over was stronger and he re-signed with the Sox…

  • flag waiver

    All about MONEY….Bay leaves a Championship team to join losers. Maybe Bay does not like the pressure.

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    i dont think that he could either but can you blame him the sox fans and news writers are ranked as the worst in baseball i am a redsox fan but from someone who comes from a place like pitsburg and then the redsox is a big change and i can kinda understand it besides the fact his numbers will definetly drop

  • the voice of reason

    Marty wake up come down from fantasy land. Manny was juiced in 2004 with ortiz and 2007 Do you want to give those championships back for cheating? Didn’t think so. Everybody was juicing even the sox. Marty complains about payroll yet the sox bought Manny, Curt Schilling, paid 90 million dollars just to sign D-K. Plus its been proven over the years its not how much money you spend its how you spend it. Its funny when the yankees win it, Red Sox nation complains that they bought the championship, When the sox win its because of there great farm system. For that other comment. Bay didn’t leave a championship team, the yankees are the champions. Its also funny when players choose to leave or go somewhere other then play for the Red Sox, there bashed right out of town. Ever wonder why they leave, Its not like the Sox can’t afford them. They don’t want to play there. In Bay’s case there was very little difference in the money offered by the Mets. Looks like he didn’t want to play there. One other point without the cheaters of 2004 & 2007 it would probably be another 86 years before the Sox win one.

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    you have to be the most ignorant yankees fan ive ever seen the sox were also suspose to get a rod but no the players union pushed and still a rod wanted to go on the sox but torre had to make a big stink cause he was going to pay more and made a threat to sue him adn dice k half that money went to dice k the other half went to the japenese team cause the sox wanted to be nice and help a team not go bankrupt but i do have to agree with you the redsox are the worst complaining fans in baseball tied with the yanks but dont be stupid the sox have a great team still your talking about the soxs fans look at you your terrible you have to be right you have to rub the sox in the dirt at least i can admit the yanks are a team just as good but you your one of those stupid people who not only dont know the facts but keeps on insisting that redsox nation suck weve made a team that can compete with yours if you were so much better than us why didnt you beat us evan when we had smoltz and penny pitching evan with ortiz who sucked the first half and dice k gone were just as good as the yanks grow up and realize that

  • the voice of reason

    What facts are you talking about? The fact that your comments are unreadable. When you graduate the 6th grade let me know.

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    unreadable maybe thats just because you too stupid to understand what a reasonable comment is baby wanna binky

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    any way voice of reason lets debate thiers no reason to make fun of each toehr were here to debate lets do that

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    besides were making a mockery of our baseball teams fanbase proving that the redsox and yankees have the worst fans in baseball so lets just chill

  • Bill G

    Not a good deal for Bay, and not a smart move by the Mets. Time will show me right.

  • Ryan

    Hahahahaha nice comment Voice of Reason. It was brutal reading those chicken scratch comments peter left. I think the master creator of prose peter is gonna have to repeat the 7th grade again due to yet another F in english class

  • voice of reason

    It could be Ok to debate peter on the Red Sox and Yankee concerns, but you could debate Red Sox, Yankees until the end of time. Which team is better? Who has the best lineup? Who has the best pitching? Etc. But there is one thing that cannot be debated. The Yankees are the team of the Century. Period. There is no debate on this. In 86 years the Sox have 2 championships the Yankees 27. The Red Sox wish they had a history as rich as the yankees. That’s why Sox fans are frustrated because they will never come close to that history in 100 years. So when Sox fans say the yankees bought the world series, the yankees cheated, there players juiced, They forget that they are part of the same system, they bought Schilling, manny, and Dice-K and Ortiz and Manny were juiced in 2004 and 2007. Its all about wishing they were born Yankees fans. Been a yankee fan since 1960. You couldn’t find a Sox fan before 2004

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    i cant stand the yankees idc if they win or not i really dont i just hate how much money theyve spent and how theyve canged baseball for the worst it drives me insane you say its baseball but thats what the yanks want you to think that you need money to win you do but i eman honestly a rod made more money than the whole marlins team put together thats not right they yanks spend way to much money and theyve always have baseball playerrs arent suspose to make that much money in one year cause before at lease you had people play baseball casue they want to now you have people just in it for the women and money and its stupid i hate it

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    to me its like steroids thats a subject i think we can agree on dont you think steriods destroyed baseball what ever happen to hit and run and stolen bases and all of that or catchers that could actually throw people out or any of that it sucks and now pitching it worse and worse cause of peple like arod who can only hit the ball i mean a rod cant bunt or any of that same with manny or ortiz its maddening

  • voice of reason

    Why do people keep bringing up salaries? This is not a game anymore. Its big business. You play or you get out.It wasn’t the Yankees that changed baseball it was Curt Flood. He changed the whole system. Blame him. So you play the game or you become the Royals. Don’t hear anybody complain about Tyler Perry he made 125 million last year. Is he worth it? This is america, everybody has a right to earn whatever the market will bare. The pitching is watered down because of expansion there are too many teams, and not enough talent, that’s why most of these teams might have 2 to 3 good starters and that’s it. Back in the early days the pitching staffs had more talent. Don’t get the A-Rod bunting thing, why would a guy who hits about 4o homers a year bunt? Steriods was the golden goose to alot of the players to get the edge they all thought they needed to compete for the big contracts. That’s why they call the past 10 years the steriod era. So many players from alot of different teams were caught. Even the Red Sox.

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    ya i know for one thats the point a rod can hit fourty homeruns but hes a professional player he should at least know how to do things like ohh idk bunt thats the simplest thing out their and its suspose to be a game for fans and for players to have fun but now its money if their wasnt money involved youd have a better game were people are actually aggresive but no you have players going out for a broken finger nail thier babys cause of money cause of the yankees who always have to raise the money spent on players

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    and its not just expansion teams that make pitching bad most pitchers come from expansion teams

  • shane

    Mets needed the signing to please the fans and the media. They need the character too. What they need to somehow do is trade castillo and get hudson who would bring so much life to this team.

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    acutally funny you say that because the sox and mets are about to close a deal lowell for castillo

  • http://www.mets.com MetsFan

    Peter you’re an idiot. You just state BS and then post on and on. Get a life and girlfriend.

    Let’s go mets!

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    really ok ill take back that statement of the ments being a good playoff team that must of been my mistake i mean they sucked through all last year theyll probly suck again this year and thats actually what their trying to do mets give castillo and a prospect for lowell that way the mets can get hudson and lowell plays first base thats not bs you just dont know much about the game

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    you know whats funny you can tell me to get a life and then cheer for your team thats to good

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  • http://alkemp26.livejournal.com/3686.html Geburtstag

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