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The Red Sox defensive improvement: 80-90 runs? 01.13.10 at 12:02 pm ET
By Alex Speier

For those trying to make sense of the murky universe that is defensive statistics, John Dewan represents one of the oracles of the field. Dewan is the owner of Baseball Informational Solutions and co-publisher of ACTA Sports. This week, his typically fascinating Stat of the Week attempts to measure the Red Sox’ defensive improvement this offseason.

Dewan, who pioneered the plus/minus rating system (which measures how a player stacks up defensively in terms of numbers of plays made and runs allowed compared to an average player at his position), takes a detailed look at the Sox’ 2009 performance at third base, shortstop and in center field, and compares it to the performances of newcomers Adrian Beltre, Marco Scutaro and Mike Cameron at those positions. Those changes, coupled with the move of Jacoby Ellsbury from center (where he rated as below average) to left field (where he has been above average, and replaces Jason Bay, who rated as below average at the position), will have a significant effect on the Sox.

To wit, Dewan claims that the Sox will be roughly 80-90 runs better defensively in 2010 than they were in 2009. Defensively, the team was about 52 runs worse than the average team in 2009; in 2010, the team now projects to be well above average.

Certainly, that was part of the thinking for the overhaul by the Sox, who now feature former Gold Glove winners at three of the four infield positions, another Gold Glove outfielder in Mike Cameron, and two above-average corner outfielders in J.D. Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury.

“If you look at our runs allowed the last three, four years, the outlier year was 2007, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence we won the World Series that year,” GM Theo Epstein said at the press conference introducing Adrian Beltre last week. “I think we’ve been able to change the nature of our defense fundamentally, by having several moving parts. We should have a very solid infield defense, I hope, and a very solid outfield defense, and I hope that you look up this time next year and there are pitchers who are having career years, and maybe that’s a reason why.”

For a more detailed explanation of Dewan’s forecasted improvement for the Sox defense, click here.

Read More: Adrian Beltre, Jacoby Ellsbury, john dewan, marco scutaro Print  |  Email  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
  • http://WEEI.COM william fulerton

    i REALLY LIKE THIS TEAM. WAY TO GO RED SOX BRASS

  • don

    no matter how the defense is, we still have to score some runs in order to win——where is our new big bat ????

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    whats with you redsox fans our team was third in batting last year who did we lose jason bay we have a better bat for short and third and our left feilder is good too

  • http://weei.com howie

    peter are you kidding? A better bat at third? Seriously, Beltre can’t hit his way out of a paper bag, while Lowell still rates as one of the best hitters in the game today. Short? Maybe, maybe a little better, but AGon had some good hitting games, and Green was incredible between his extended slumps, so maybe an average hitter (Scutaro) will perform better over the whole season, but I would hardly call it a lock. We will clearly not be one of the top hitting teams in 2010, we better hope pitching and defense are really all that Queen Theo makes them out to be.

  • gramfan

    You can argue numbers all you want, but the unforeseen can change the whole picture in an instant. I’d rather go ahead from today, hoping everyone stays healthy, happy and productive both in offense and defense.

  • Leigh

    By “top hitting” do you mean top 5 in the AL? I think that may be reasonably where the sox end up. Agon and Green had some good games for us but look at the numbers over the season. Scutaro seems a clear upgrade if he even slips his last years numbers. In any other division in baseball the Sox would be the 10 game favorite. So the question is: how will they deal with the match ups with NY? Smart money would have the outcome in the range of +4/-4 games. The sox should make the post season and they have at least 3 aces. We keep hearing “you dont win games 0-0,” no but you dont lose them either. Does anyone think the sox will get shut out more than they give?

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    ya i dont get why our numbers are going to go down our batting average should go up we should have more homeruns and david ortiz will actually be healthy we should do better we were third in runs last year we should be doing better this year.

  • http://weei.com howie

    Homeruns, let’s see: Beltre might hit 10 if he’s lucky – Lowell was good for 15 -20. Cameron might hit 15, Bay was good for 30 to 40. Let’s be generous and call Scutaro 20, replacing 8 to 10. So, the total # is minus 15 to 25 bombs for the season. Ortiz is a big question mark, and honestly I think he will be lucky to hit 25 this year – I think he will be a bench player by the All-Star break, maybe even be replaced by Lowell out of spring training. The fact of the matter is that we do not have a single big bomb / 100+ RBI bat in this lineup. I’m not saying small ball can’t win, and this will make for some very exciting hit and run plays, but a big bat is simply not present in this year’s team.

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    what are you a yankees fan beltre will hit 25 at least he was injured last year and cameron will hit at least 25 like he has consistantly and scutaro will hit about fifteen also dont forget beltre is playing in a smaller ball park he will be a doubles machine and he can hit 100 home runs and big papi hit about thirty last year injured why dont you think he cant do that not injured so lets see we will hit about ten more homers this year than last year. you should look at mike and beltre’s stats their better than you think. now that beltre is playing with a better hitting team he can hit a hundred ortiz can youk can you can hit a bazzillion homers doesnt mean your going to have a lot of RBI’S and do not forget that our defense and pitching is way better and ortiz wont be a bench player he wasnt last year by the all star break and he sucked actually ortiz hit the most homers after the all star break so how do you think he will do this year. we will definetly need hit and run i do agree im fourteen but i love a pitching duel more than who can hit more RBI’S in a game but we dont need a big bat cause almost all of our players have an above average one and we have the best pitchign and one of the best actually the best defense in baseball wait nvm forgot about our catchign problem lol but were still a team that could win the world series without having jason bay

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    and yes by top hitting i meant in the top five yankees lineup is way better

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    and lowell was a good hitter but beltre is younger and better lowell is an old man now beltre can definetly hit better

  • http://weei.com howie

    Anyone who thinks Beltre will hit remotely close to Lowell has not been watching baseball. Don’t know why peter is referring to Ortiz as injured last year. He wasn’t injured, he just sucked. This year he will be older and slower. No chance to catch up to top tier fastballs, not much chance against any pitch thrown by a #1 to #3 pitcher on any team. I’m not saying Bay was all that, just that we needed a big bat, and failing to get one we make a grave error in trading Lowell for Beltre. Lowell is older and slower, so the defensive argument is correct, but he hits better than Ortiz, let alone Beltre. As far as enjoyment of the game, I personally find a pitchers duel to be about the most boring game one could see. I’d rather see high scores with lots of home runs (by us of course). Great defensive plays are nice to watch too, but strikeout after strikeout after easy infield play is a real snoozefest. No, I’m not a Yankees fan. I will watch at least 150 Red Sox games this year (regular season), and have high hopes that we make the post season. I have a feeling I’m going to be bitterly disappointed this year (unless the Yankees have several major injuries). The PR would be bad, but I’d feel a lot better if we replaced Ortiz with a currently unemployed player who just happens to be the best hitter of our generation (guess who). Then we might stand a chance.

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    we cant just replace ortiz its his last year before the end of his contract and just because sombody plays doesnt mean their not injured he was still recovering from his wrist injury and beltre can hit 25 homers and he will be a doubles machine why aer you redsox fans so ignorant we gotta good team we have great defense pitchign and our hitting is just as good as last i think its better youll see im right the only thing lowell has over betre is average other than that beltre hits more homers and doubles and hes a better feilder. ortiz the past three years has had problems with his legs and wrist so now that hes perfectly healthy he should do good i mean hes lost twenty pounds all ready this off season. and our defense if it wasnt for our catchers sucking we would have the best in baseball and our pitching is one of the best in baseball if tnot the best so idk what your worried about especially with dice k back we could win t he world series

  • voice of reason

    Is this all the sox fans have out there is peter. This looks like the peter web sight. If anybody thinks the Sox have a chance to beat the yankees they are fooling them selfs the yankees remember beat the sox by 8 games last year and didn’t even play good ball for 2 months. The yankees will finish at least 10 games ahead of the slop sox.

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    lol hehe thanks good to have you back i dissagree lol like always i think it matters on whod injured or not injuries can tear a team down look at tampa the sox i think will win the devision or the yankees but i think they both will win 100 games ill admit if the sox are better than the yanks its not by much their equal forces redsox is better pitchng and defense wise yanks are far better hitting wise but im not mad at you voice of reason but a lot of you sox fans last year our too biggest problems pitchign and defense we were ranked the second worst team defensivly last year were one of the best last year our bullpen was overused at the beggining of the season we got lackey and a healthy beckett a lot of you dont know but beckett was injured last year and the year before taht the only reason why he played is cause hes that much a competitor so we are a good team our hitting is just as good as last year bay was a good hitter but were well rounded hitting wise we have a lot of above average hitters the worst hitter thats a starter is mark scutarow and hes a decent hitter granted were not like the yankees were almost everybody can hit thirty homeruns but we were ranked what third last year in hitting why wouldnt we be high up on that list this year big papi’s healthy and we lost a lot without bay but we have beltre who can hit a hundred cameron who can hit 85 and scutaro who can hit 65 that equals 250 RBI’Swith bay lowell and all of our shortstops weve had about 250 RBI’S if you add it all up so i think were better than last year cause ortiz healthy we got vmart all year round and if you really think about it beltre youk vmart and ortiz can all hit 100 RBI’S so idk what you redsox fans or some of you are complaining about cause this team is ausome

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    wow i didnt evan realized i typed that much

  • John Smotlz

    Lets not forget varitek is a year older and automatic out, ortiz is a year older and that much slower. He is no longer a feared hitter. Mike cameron is average. Beltre is a awful hitter in fenway. The Red sox still have nobody that scares you in that lineup. Say what you want about pitching and defense that doesn’t win championships, just ask the Braves, who by the way had 3 hall of fame pitchers for 10 years and won one title. Now that the Sox have there fans buying into this theory talk to me in september when your 10 games out and losing the wild card to the rangers or tampa.

  • Nick

    “Homeruns, let’s see: Beltre might hit 10 if he’s lucky – Lowell was good for 15 -20. Cameron might hit 15, Bay was good for 30 to 40. Let’s be generous and call Scutaro 2″

    Please send me your email address. I will bet you any amount of money that Beltre and Cameron both hit at least 20, assuming a certain amount of games played. You can email me at undertow2005@yahoo.com

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    question if pitching and defense doesnt win it than what one it in 2007

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    thank you i dont know why somebody says he will hit ten hes consistantly been a decent homerun hitter and fenway will make his homeruns go up

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    if not his homeruns definetly his doubles

  • jose cansaco

    In 2007 Ortiz was juiced and so was manny. They cheated.

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    ortiz and manny are you kidding i doubt it ortiz was injured the whole season and manny sucked

  • voice of reason

    Don’t know what facts you have its in fantasy land you pulled them from. In 2007 Ortiz played 149 games, had 52 doubles, most of his career. Hit 35 homers, and drove in 117 runs. In the ALDS batted 714 with 2 homers and 3 RBi’s in 3 games. In the WS batted 333, with 3 doubles 5 hits and 4 RBI’s in 4 games. I guess he was really injured. Its funny when yankee fans know more about the sox then sox fans.

  • http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2009/12/29/youkilis-sheds-light-on-bay-offseason-corner-spots/ peter

    lol evan funnier when they say that and get their facts wrong lol he was was dealing with a leg problem and when that cleared up he dealt with a back and shoulder problem he just was man enough to play through it unlike other players thats why he has a higher average cause instead of always trying to hit a homerun like he always does he did something different he played pepper with the green monster. you know wade boggs im sure he was a doubles machine he loved the green monster cause he knew he could get a bazillion doubles david ortiz realized that and instead of always pulling the ball he dropped it the other way thats why he hit twenty less homers and had more doubles and a higher batting average lol you should get your facts right

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