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Lester among biggest bargains in baseball 02.05.10 at 3:10 pm ET
By Alex Speier

It is now just under a year since the Red Sox gave Jon Lester the sort of deal that had no precedent. The Sox and Lester agreed on a five-year, $30 million deal that includes a $13 million option for the 2014 season. That deal represented a record in terms of guaranteed years (5) and dollars ($30 million) for a pitcher who had yet reached arbitration eligibility. (For the context of the deal at the time, click here.)

For the club, there was some risk involved. The Sox were making a sizable long-term commitment to a pitcher on the strength of one truly dominant year at the big-league level. Less than one year later, however, it becomes obvious that the deal is one that may end up saving the club tens of millions of dollars.

Over the last two years, Lester has established himself as one of the most dominant left-handers in the game. He is part of a conversation that includes CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Cliff Lee and not many others. In 2008-09, he went a combined 31-14 (tied for the 6th most wins in the majors) with a 3.31 ERA (13th), 377 strikeouts (12th), and a puny 74 OPS+ (6th). In his career, he is now 42-16 with a 3.66 ERA.

Yet assuming that the Sox end up exercising their option on the 26-year-old, he will cost $42.75 million between now and 2014. He’s only given up one year of free agency — two if the Sox exercise their option — but assuming the Boston front office does indeed keep him for the final year of the deal, Lester’s first two free-agent years would be coming at a cost of $11.625 million and $13 million.

As Brian MacPherson of the Union Leader has pointed out, those figures seem like a bargain when compared to the two market-changing contracts that were just signed by Tigers ace Justin Verlander and Seattle’s royal figure of pitching, Felix Hernandez.

Verlander — who has one more year of service time than Lester — just inked a five-year, $80 million deal that will keep him in Detroit through 2014. His free-agent years are being valued at $20 million each. That deal went just over the five-year, $78 million deal that Hernandez — who, like Verlander, has one more year of service time than Lester — signed to remain with the Mariners through 2014. His first three free-agent years are valued at an average of $19.33 million per season.

Verlander has a career record of 65-43 with a 3.92 ERA; he’s never had an ERA below 3.45. His strikeout numbers (8.0 per nine innings) are better than Lester’s (7.9), but not by much, and Lester is more of a groundball pitcher than Verlander.

Hernandez’ numbers compare more impressively to Lester’s: he is 58-41 with a 3.45 career ERA, 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings and a tremendous groundball rate that is better than either Lester’s and Verlander’s. He is also the youngest of the three. (Hernandez turns 24 in April; Lester turned 26 last month; and Verlander turns 27 later this month.)

If you were to bet on one pitcher to be the best of the three — regardless of contract — it would be Hernandez. But would you anticipate that he will be so much better than Lester that he would be worth an additional $35 million over the next five seasons? Probably not.

Put another way: had the Sox waited until after the 2010 season to sign Lester to an extension when he had accumulated four-plus years of service time, barring a disastrous performance in the coming year, there is little question that he would have been in line for a long-term deal along the lines of the ones signed by Verlander and Hernandez.

Of course, Lester’s contract cannot be compared apples-to-apples with the two that were just signed. He agreed to his deal at a much different point in his career than did either of the other two pitchers. In that regard, Lester did an excellent job of achieving a lifetime of security after just a couple years in the majors. Again, he received more guaranteed money than any other pitcher in his service class at the time that he signed his contract.

That said, the recent deals suggest that the Sox, by moving aggressively to achieve a long-term deal at an early stage of a dominant young pitcher’s career, got one of the best bargains in all of baseball. If Lester remains healthy, and continues to perform at the elite levels that have characterized his past two years, his deal with Boston will be one of the most team-friendly around.

Read More: felix hernandez, Jon Lester, justin verlander, Print  |  Email  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
  • BenInL.A.

    One other factor should be mentioned- Lester’s non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. Surely this was an element of the risk the Sox were assuming with a long term contract, and affected Lester’s decision when signing for five years relatively early in his career for the financial security. Perhaps the experience shared by the team and the player also helped to form the bonds that made this deal possible.
    It sure is nice to have Lester locked up either way. At this point I wonder if he would be considered as the “Number One” other than the fact that his contract doesn’t yet match that title.

  • http://www.overthemonster.com BenInWisconsin

    “At this point I wonder if he would be considered as the “Number One” other than the fact that his contract doesn’t yet match that title.”

    I think he already is.

  • Paul

    SUCKER!!!!!!!!!!!

    Makes you wonder what the Sox brass has to hold over these guys’ heads (Pedroia, Beckett, Lester, Youklis, Big Papi- well, we know the answer to that one) to get them to sign in their prime for relatively long time periods at sharp discounts…..hmmmmmm…..thoughts?

  • Jay

    I would hardly call him a sucker. The kid has guranteed himself 30 million dollars for playing baseball and the other’s have also received financial freedom for their entire families. Do you realize it would take 300 years @ 100k a year to reach 30 million. I say it is fair for both sides and have you seen the market in recent years apart from the truly elite free agents? Not very favorable.

  • Paul

    If I could have made my employer pay $80,000 to show up for work but I agreed to show up to work for $30,000 you wouldn’t call me a sucker? Drink the Kool Aide brother, lap it up…..LOL

  • bosoxyaz8

    Lester = Stud !

  • astern

    Paul, he was protecting himself from the potential for injury. Lets say (god forbid) something terrible happened to Lester in the next year or two. He always has that 30 mil. to sleep on at night. and saying 80 mil is to 80,000 dollars equals what 30 mil is to 30,000 is oversimplifying it to a tremendous degree.

  • Paul

    why no one is taking a whack at this one?

    “Makes you wonder what the Sox brass has to hold over these guys’ heads (Pedroia, Beckett, Lester, Youklis, Big Papi- well, we know the answer to that one) to get them to sign in their prime for relatively long time periods at sharp discounts…..hmmmmmm…..thoughts?”

    Especially when many similarly-situated people around the league are getting big paydays on long term contracts while they are in their arb eligible years…..

  • BenInL.A.

    “why no one is taking a whack at this one?”

    We don’t feed the trolls.

  • Paul

    It doesn’t concern anyone that Verlander, Felix, Howard, Utley, Cabrera, Morneau, Buehrle, Markakis, Oswalt, Wright, etc. etc. are taken care of by their teams but our guys are not……I’m worried our guys will become bitter and not perform when it counts…..I mean, I already feel like it’s affecting Papelbon….If we don’t move Lowell what affect will that have on the team?

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