As much as I like the Beltre for Lowell trade off, Lowell was more productive than Beltre at the plate last season and Beltre’s best season is safe to call a fluke year (if not a steroid year) at this point. Having VMart for a full season will be a major plus, but losing Bay more than cancels that out since VMart was here for two months. They are a better team, but Pedroia and the rest of the team should continue to get questioned about run scoring because they are not a better offense.

Agree with Mark. Scoring lots of runds isn’t the key, scoring runs when it counts is (‘clutch hits’). With Ortiz, Cameron, and Beltre you don’t get clutch hitting…or even consistent hitting. That 3 spot leaves a big hole in the offense even with the other 6 producing, which is far from guaranteed. The reality is that for all their pitching it’s hard to see the Sox being anything more than a 2nd or 3rd place finisher in the division for 2010.

runs*

Wait, are there innings when runs don’t count?

“Wait, are there innings when runds don’t count?” –Mike

Total runs scored is way over-rated in accessing winning potential. Win a game 10-3 and the extra 6 runs scored don’t matter at all. Neither does putting 20 runners on base if only a few of them score. With their current lineup the Sox don’t have much power, won’t hit for average and most likely will leave a boatload of runners on base because they won’t get the hits when they NEED them. Looks nice on paper to score a pile of runs by year’s end (still in doubt) but when they bottom out at 91 wins and are looking up at the Yankees for the division title…that scoring stat will be meaningless.

The Sox simply can’t win the division with just pitching and enthusiasm..the Yanks and Rays are too good to let it happen.

I am reading a lot of garbage in these comments. Number one, you want to compare Lowell to Beltre last season when Lowell played 1/2 his games at Fenway and Beltre played half at Safeco? What is wrong with this picture??? Yes, 48 homers in 2004 was probably a fluke, but is there any reason why Beltre, hitting at Fenway, can’t be expected to hit 25-30, with the potential for more? Right there is your replacement for Bay’s home runs, because Cameron is always good for 20+ and that’s about what you would get from Lowell. And what is this about losing Bay cancels out V-Mart because V-Mart was here for two months? What does that mean? For four months, the Captain’s ghostly bat was hurting the offense. V-Mart’s bat replaces Varitek’s limp noodle of a bat, and that is a huge upgrade. And what is this about the number 3 spot being a hole? Ortiz isn’t hitting in the number 3 spot. Martinez will, and Ortiz will bat fifth or sixth. So long as Ortiz doesn’t fall of the cliff or suffer the lengthy power outages he had last year, this offense will be more than fine. It will once again be top three in the league. Bank on it.

‘The Sox don’t have much power”

That would explain why PECOTA has the Yankees and Red Sox projected to the same exact SLG percentage, huh? And the Red Sox to win the division by two games.

PECOTA’s projections are nothing more than geek-based educated guesses designed more for individual player than teams, and they don’t (can’t) take real-world unpredictables (injury, trades, etc.) into account. PECOTA projecting the Sox will win the division by two games when their average win differential (actual vs. projected) over the last seven years is 5.6 is hardly worth a yawn.

Common sense says that over time (time = 162 games) a team with good pitching and average hitting will not beat a team with good pitching and good hitting. Face it, the Sox simply aren’t good enough with the team they presently have. They need more consistency in their offense. Like it or not, it is what it is.

PECOTA’s projections are nothing more than geek-based educated guesses designed more for the individual player than for team play, and they don’t (can’t) take real-world unpredictables (injury, trades, etc.) into account. PECOTA projecting that the Sox or any other team will win the division by two games when their average win differential (actual vs. projected) over the last seven years is 5.6 is hardly worth a yawn.

On the other hand, common sense says that over 162 games a team with good pitching and average hitting will not beat a team with good pitching and good hitting. Face it, the Sox simply aren’t good enough with the team they presently have to beat the Yanks. They need more consistency (i.e. better hitters) in their offense. Like it or not, it is what it is.

So geek-based educational guesses are better than your casual guess that our team will be worse? You’re leaving out something very very important. Great defense. This team will probably pace the league in defense (however you choose to measure it). The offense may not score as much (I think they will be about on par with last year), but the beautiful thing is that they won’t have to score as much to win games this year. Good pitching will only be made better by the defense behind it.

And for the offense, yeah we lost Bay but let’s face it, he wasn’t going to be any better this year than last, I expect him to slowly get worse every year, he just doesn’t have a good swing. And really that’s our only loss. Beltre should post better numbers in Fenway than he did in that cavern he played at in Seattle. Cameron will post his usual numbers like he does every single year. Scutaro will bring consistency in at SS that we haven’t seen in a whole and then there’s VMart, having him in the lineup for a whole year will be a huge improvement over Tek. Not to mention that Ortiz was looking much like his old self after May ended. If the long ball fascinates you then please move along because this offense isn’t the one for you, however these guys are going to work counts and get on base, which is the most important thing, hitting it far is nice but OBP correlates best to runs scored and that is what this team is going to do. This team is going to win games with it’s suffocating defense and great pitching that will be able to silence any offense and then kill pitching by working the count and chasing starters early before working away on the bullpen. This is going to be a good year.

I think you are all wrong. I think the Sox will score MORE runs in ’10 than ’09. I think the defense and pitching (starting) will be in the top three in MLB…I see the Sox winning more than 95, but probably not 100. The Yanks?….well, I think they will be there for the final gun…..Tampa?…great young team…..

Gonna be a great season….buckle up and enjoy the ride!

I know that the 2010 Sox will be a better club than 09. We have added pitching, defense and if Ortiz has issues we have Lowell. The Sox will score more runs in 2010 and limit the opposition to less run production. I remember the days of old when it was get 1 or 2 on and 3-run homer… That was the philosophy, now it is get men on get the ball in play and run the bases…. This team is capable of scoring 940-970 runs this year just based on speed. Yeah we lost Bay but Cameron, Beltre with Vmart and we are more productive. Better outfield coverage and more depth over all. I see the NYY as the wild card this year.

Tony,
In 05, 08, 08 , 09 the team established a wOBA of .352 which is always one of the best in the league. They are always in the top 3 teams each year for .SLG pct. I think Theo and the gang have it figured out when it comes to run scoring. I would be willing to be we win 95+ again this year. The red sox leave a lot of men on base because they get a lot of men on base.

I don’t know if the sox will score more or less runs, or if Ortiz rebounds or slides. So Pedroia thinks they can score more runs? It will be fun to watch. The real question is ” Cameron, Beltre and Scutaro or Lowell, Bay and Gonzales which trio represents a better chance to win?” I think its tough to argue that the new guys as a group aren’t an upgrade. Sure Lowell’s bat had thump and so did Bays. They were both somewhat limited in their defensive skills (Lowell’s due to injury.) But the offensive will likely be a top 5 AL offense in any case (conceding of course that V-mart> V-Tek at this time.) The pitching however looks excellent. The sox bring on an ace quality starter to fill the three hole in the rotation? Dice-K 2008’s leader in BA against may be a trying to get 4-5 spot?

Somebody made the comment you have to drive in those runners on base. Let me just say this again, Bay was the second best hitter in all of baseball with runners in scoring position. So why does not having this guy mean nothing to some people, Drew drives in nobody, Ellsbury drives in nobody, who going to replace that clutch hitting? All of a sudden Bays a bum because he no longer plays for the sox. Stop drinking the Theo kool-aid. The only reason the sox stats show some promise is because of Fenway, they had major trouble away from fenway scoring runs. They leave a lot on base because they have a weak lineup. People forget last year when they went to play the yankees they didn’t score in 3 of the 4 games. what speed are people talking about cameron is old and slow, scutaro is 34 years old. Never mind running the bases how will they stop people from running all over them, they are one of the worst teams in the majors at throwing out runners. He comes # 28

The Soxs certainly improved their pitching and defense. Which Ortiz will show up? The biggest loss is that veteran savvy of Lowell and V-Tek. It is the intangibles that make up championship teams. If the Sox have it they’ll play the Yanks for the American League Pennant. If they don’t mesh together they’ll finish third behind the Rays.

REMEMBER THE BRAVES THEY WERE GOING TO WIN WITH PITCHING AND DEFENSE. THEY HAD 3 HALL OF FAME PITCHERS FOR 10 YEARS. THEY WON 1 CHAMPIONSHIP. AND YES THE YANKEES BEAT THEM TOO. THIS RED SOX TEAM WILL NOT EVEN MAKE THE PLAYOFFS IN 2010 .REMEMBER IF TEXAS HAD JUST PLAYED 500 BALL THE LAST 20 GAMES THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN THE WILD CARD TEAM. AND I THOUGHT THE SOX HAD THE BEST PITCHING LAST YEAR, HOW THAT WORK OUT? They were swept out by a team that everybody said had no chance the angels.

I would take Beltre, Cameron and Scutaro over Lowell, Bay and Gonzalez on both sides of the plate any day of the week. Also, a Lowell-Ortiz platoon has the potential to be better than Big Papi’s old form, not to mention his inconsistency last year.

I don’t like the Red Sox. But the fact is your team is better than it was last year. If the rotation comes together like it has the potential to, you could use the Washington Nationals’ batting lineup and win 90+ games. But you don’t have to, do you? You get what is arguably an upgrade over last year (I think it is). Word up to those preaching OBP in this thread.

Dear Voice of Reason:

RBIs are the most overrated stat in the game (see Carter, Joe). It IS foolish to dismiss Bay’s ability with the bat, but there really is no such thing as “clutch hitting”. I saw Albert Pujols go 9-12 with the bases loaded last year (with 7 extra base hits and 5 home runs), but it’s not because he raised his game. It’s because opposing pitchers felt the pressure and made mistakes. Also luck. Maybe JD does wilt under pressure, but Bay isn’t extra valuable because he doesn’t. Statistcally speaking, Bay’s clutchness is a combination of luck and continued excellence under any pressure. And as a Seattleite, I can attest to Beltre and Cameron both being immune to pressure.

Ya know, I am tired of the J.D. Drew hate from my fellow Red Sox fans. Actually I wouldn’t even call many of you “fans.” More like whiners.
I have seen Drew come through plenty of times.
How about the 2007 ALCS>??? That grandslam was a beauty!
Even better, the 2008 ALCS!
I distinctly remember a clutch bomb this year against the Blue Jays.
He has carried the team plenty of times, regardless if you see it or not.
J.D. Drew is a OBP machine puts up good SLG numbers. That translates to a very strong OPS.
He also play VERY good defensive and makes right field in Fenway look easy when most others struggle.
I’ll be routing for Drew this year and next. I’ll also be hoping for an extension if he continues to but up solid numbers.

What’s it with you BoSox types and the Mariners? Beltre (mariner), Cameron (mariner), Varitek (mariner), hell even Ortiz (mariner minor leaguer).

Drew is the most over payed guy in baseball, the only extension with be on the DL Get this stiff out of town. Ever wonder why his obp is good he doesn’t hit he would rather walk then try to drive somebody in. The only solid numbers this guy puts up is how many years in a row he is on the DL

You added lackey to your staff of last year, who by the way of his 11 wins he beat 3 teams with a winning record, i guess 15 million a year doesn’t go very far anymore. Plus i think last years bullpen is better then this year. The washington nationals are about the only team lackey can beat. This team will finish no better then third.

Dear Bernie Williams.

Every year besides 2007 (where he earned it with a grand slam against the Indians) JD Drew is, according to fangraphs, one of the few players to fully live up to a $$14 million contract. People can wax nostalgic all they want about the glory days of Trot Nixon but if we’re looking at just the numbers (and folks, sometimes you have to disregard ‘attitude’ and just look at the numbers) JD Drew is an upgrade both defensively and offensively from the former fan favorite. Dirt Dogs are nice. Wins are nicer.

who cares what fangraphs said about this guy my eyes don’t lie. And who compared him to Trot Nixon he was a bum too. This guy sits with a hang nail. Nick Swisher must be Babe Ruth by your fangraphs logic, he had more homers, more RBI’s and is making about 10 million less then Drew. Is Swisher a better player then Drew? Swisher has more heart is his finger then Drew has in his whole body. So what wins are you talking about? The Sox have done nothing for 3 years. There are no points for playing ok. J.D. has never been the player everybody said he would become. Never. Swisher will have another season that is better then Drew. Don’t forget RBI’s are overated.

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