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October thoughts: The World Series and the Red Sox offseason 10.29.10 at 11:29 pm ET
By Lou Merloni

Could the Sox have had a shot at Cliff Lee, who dominated the Rays and Yankees this postseason? (AP)

Just a few thoughts while watching the World Series:

Beckett, not Lackey, might be the one who cost the Red Sox a shot at Cliff Lee

The Red Sox signed John Lackey last December 14th. The Philadelphia Phillies traded Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners on December 17th. Before Lee was traded, it was believed that the Phillies would do anything they could to try to re-sign the lefty. Once he was traded to the Mariners, you had to believe that it was a one-year rental.

I don’t blame the Sox for not holding out for Lee by not signing Lackey, but you could question extending Beckett knowing that Lee would be on the market at the trade deadline or during the offseason. I really thought that the Sox would hold out and wait and see how Beckett did throughout the season, and more importantly late in the season, seeing that he had struggled down the stretch in the two previous years. Don’t get me wrong, once they signed him to the four-year deal, I may have been surprised they didn’t wait, but I still thought it was a good deal at the time. But, did it cost them a shot at Lee? I think it did.

You need more than an ace come playoff time

If you look back at the American League Championship Series, there were two clear cut aces in CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee. After that, there were a lot of question marks.

Lee wasn’t available at the start of the ALCS, after pitching Game 5 against the Rays in the ALDS. So, to me, the big game to me in that series was Game 2. The Yanks used their playoff experience to come back and take advantage of a “fragile” Texas bullpen and take Game 1. It had me wondering if the Rangers could come back from that disappointing loss. It was left up to the Game 2 starters Phil Hughes and Colby Lewis. Lewis gave the Rangers exactly what they needed, keeping the Yankees bats in check early in that game. The same could not be said about Hughes, as the Rangers jumped all over him early. The same three guys in the Ranger ‘pen that got beat up during game 1 — Clay Rapada, Darren Oliver and Darren O’Day — bounced back and shut the door on the Yanks. After that game, it was over.

Fast forward to the World Series. After the much-hyped (but disappointing) pitching duel between Lee and Tim Lincecum, it was left to the Game 2 starters. Did you have more confidence in C.J. Wilson or Matt Cain?

The moral of the story: If your “ace” happens to get beaten in Game 1, you have to have confidence in the next guy to even the series.

Don’t underestimate Ortiz — a DH doesn’t come that easy

I expect that David Ortiz will have his option picked up. If you ask me, that option should be ripped up and replaced by a two-year deal this winter. I’m hearing a lot that the DH has been devalued these days. That’s because there just aren’t that many hitters in the game who can do what David Ortiz can do. Do you really think that the Tampa Rays are happy platooning Willy Aybar and Dan Johnson? No, they do because they don’t have a “David Ortiz” to plug in there everyday. (Tampa Bay tried to get a real DH with Pat Burrell. That was a failure. Burrell never produced for the Rays, who released him this summer.)

Ortiz’ struggles against left-handed pitchers are well documented. His numbers aren’t what they used to be. But at the end of the day, when the season is over, the numbers are there. Over the last two years, he has hit 60 home runs and has driven in over 200 runs. Good luck finding someone who can do that through free agency.

Bullpens are a must

I’ve always felt that World Series are won and lost because of bullpens. Obviously your starter needs to set the tone, but as we’ve seen in this World Series and ones of the past, even “good” starts may only last six innings. After that, the pressure is on. If you don’t have a guy that can get you out of a jam in the sixth and then have another two or three guys to hand it off to your closer, you are in big trouble. Which brings me to the closer. You often hear that pitching the ninth is a “different animal.” It is, but pitching the ninth in the playoffs or the World Series is a completely different level. The game has to be over if you have the lead in the ninth.

Defense…Defense…Defense

During the course of a season we see a lot of plays that, if they were made, would be considered great plays. If they are not made, more often than not they go down as a hit. In the postseason, those plays NEED to be made. The games are so intense that every mistake gets magnified. When you play the best teams in the game, you cannot give them outs by kicking the ball all over the field. Ask Brooks Conrad. If the poor guy didn’t have a meltdown in the field during the NLDS, the Giants may not be in the World Series.

Curt Young should be the next Red Sox pitching coach

Curt Young should replace John Farrell. Young was a minor league pitching coach with the A’s when Terry Francona was the big league bench coach. The Oakland A’s struggled to score runs but pitching was not their problem. Their staff had the lowest ERA in the American League. Curt Young is more than qualified and a great guy to boot.

Where did this come from with Javy Lopez?

Javy Lopez….really? Lefties hit .162 off of the former Red Sox lefty in 2010. That would have been nice to have, huh? Unfortunately for Javy, he got off to such a poor start with the Sox in 2009 that he just couldn’t recover. He is a left-handed specialist, not a mop-up guy. If you look back in April of ’09, Javy was brought in for some tough situations for someone who is asked to just get lefties out. Too often he was brought in to give the Sox innings in a blowout. Because of that, Lopez often found himself facing all right-handed hitters. That is not putting him a good position to succeed. He lost his confidence to get guys out, but as we are seeing in the postseason, he is still more than capable of getting the job done.

The Sox shouldn’t let the marketing department dictate their offseason

There is a feeling out there that the Sox need to make a splash this offseason in an attempt to create interest in their product. I don’t agree with that. If the marketing and sales department get involved in the team-building aspect of this organization, I will be shocked. The front office should not be concerned how their team is perceived by its fans. They should be concerned with doing what’s best for the organization and bringing a championship back to Boston.

All of last offseason, I listened to fans calling this station to voice their opinions of how bad this team was going to be, saying that because they let Jason Bay go, they weren’t going to score enough runs to compete. Theo Epstein and company knew that the team they put together would be just fine. I know they only won 89 games, but when they were healthy, scoring runs was not the problem. They were leading the major leagues in runs scored before they got hit with injuries.

As far as interest goes, those days are over. From 2004 to 2007, there were two seasons in this town, football and baseball. The other two big teams weren’t close to being championship caliber. Those were the glory days for both teams.

Why did ratings drop this year? It’s simple: The Celtics and Bruins were going deep in the playoffs and nobody really cared about the Sox for the first few months of the season. By the time the attention had switched over to Yawkey Way, the Sox started to lose piece after piece due to injury. Fans looked at this team and didn’t believe that they were capable of winning a World Series. That was the reality. No matter what they did at the trade deadline, the Sox could not win it all without Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury. Say what you want, but Kerry Wood was not bringing a championship to Boston.

Read More: brooks conrad, Cliff Lee, curt young, David Ortiz Print  |  Email  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
  • Brian

    Lou Merloni is a god

  • tw0c0n2me

    I agree with a lot of your points Lou, and agree the Red Sox don’t need to make a splash just to make a splash. However they should always improve if possible, and they do have the resources to make needed improvements. The possibility that Beltre and Martinez leaving is also very likely. I also agree bullpen must be addressed, but the outfield should also be a priority, and Crawford or Werth would look mighty good in the Sox outfield. The hope is Ellsbury will be healthy, but that is still a question mark at this point and along with Drew going into his last year and Cameron also not being healthy, not to mention missing most of the year at his age that should factor into the decision to upgrading in that area. Ultimately I think that the outfield will become a pri this offseason. If the Sox sign Crawford, or Werth, and the following year one of the kids can slide into right the Sox will be in a great position, and also have one of the best outfields in the league. With a little health,some tweaking and rebounding of Beckett and to a lesser extent Lackey the Sox will be back in the playoffs, and i hope it will be with Crawford in the number 3 hole.

  • rsn1616

    Obviously signing Lackey/re-signing Beckett looks bad now, but who says Lee won’t eventually implode like them? I think people are forgetting Lee will be 33 next year so it’s only a matter of time before he comes back to Earth.

  • Dave

    The Sox are less popular because the fans are smart–and the Sox have been very poorly run for a few years now, and fans know they have no shot

    The winning years were a combination of primarily great Duquette acquisitions, with some moves by Theo that put them over the top (incl two brilliant moves, Shilling, Ortiz, and one massively courageous one, the Nomar trade)

    But since then, not so much. Theo has had his moments, but major errors as well, that would have crushed smaller market teams–Drew, Renteria(10 mil a year!), Lugo (4 years at 9 mil a year!), the bullpen, Dice K (all in all given the $ involved), and no success as several major elite talents have gone to other teams in the last few years (Sabathia, Texiera, Lee, Halladay, others). Also, the 2007 World Series win was in spite of Theo(Beckett trade not his)
    Red Sox fans know you need 5 or so elite players to really compete in the east, and where they once had them (Manny, Oritz, Shilling, Pedro, Tek, Paps) they have only one or two.

    The Lackey and Beckett signings prevent major cures to this as well, unfortunately, for several years–they will lose their best and most fun players from 2010 as well–Beltre and Martinez–and are a pretty boring bunch all and all–Manny was wild, but he was a damn good hitter, the best ever from the right side, and he was a riot waiting to happen. Damon, Nixon, Millar, Lowe, Cabrera–all fun players to watch–not so much this crowd (though hats off to the amazing Dustin)–

  • http://www.conveyancingfees.co.uk Conveyancing Fees

    Well I am a red sox fan.although its been poorly run i have faith in our team

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    Being a red sox fan, i can tell you one thing…they rock and they arent going to die so soon even if u say it to be off season for them

  • http://www.apple.com Jedi Master

    I think the Sox absolutely should make a run at Lee. Somehow, I was never really sold on Lackey… strange thing is, I think he’ll have a bounce-back year, while I’m thinking Beckett has already passed his prime. Believe it or not, I’m more convinced about Lester and Dice-K than the other two.

    Get Lee, Get Adrian Gonzalez, Keep Ortiz. This would be a great start.

  • http://Enteryourwebsite... Jman

    I think the redsox need to go after Werth. Since manny, we’ve missed the big right handed bat in the lineup. Also, we have to get a few more arms in our bullpen. Brain Fuentes and jj putz would be effective additions that would fill the gap in middle relief that we desperatly need.

  • Well Run

    The sox are a VERY well run organization…all you blowhards who said they “had to sign Bay”…WRONG!

    There is no point blowing money to make a “splash” unless you get someone great…they need to sign VMart…and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Beltre come back (due to lack of big money teams needing a 3rd baseman).

    Some of their decisions have DEFINITELY back fired…but that is the case with every team. I think they will compete over the long term and win the occassional championship…works for me.

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