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Minor Details: Keith Law on Sox trade chips 11.19.10 at 3:22 am ET
By Alex Speier

Keith Law

Keith Law of ESPN.com joined this week’s installment of Minor Details. The weekly podcast, which examines the shape of the Red Sox farm system, focused this week on how well positioned the Red Sox are to make trades this winter now that the Hot Stove season seems to have been ignited.

Law touched on a number of topics, including:

–Is it worth trading top prospects for a one-year rental such as Adrian Gonzalez? Law suggested that while he thinks that the Padres superstar first baseman would thrive outside of Petco Park, the fact that he is only signed through 2011 means that the Red Sox should not deal a top prospect — such as Casey Kelly — for him.

“In the Red Sox’ division, I wonder if they’re ever really high enough of a probability of making the playoffs that it’s worth giving up prospect depth,” said Law. “You could probably look at Kelly and say he could be in the big leagues in 2012. Maybe not with the Red Sox, but he’s not that far away. … Casey Kelly is not untouchable for me, but he’s pretty darn close to it. I don’t think I’d trade Casey Kelly for one year of Adrian Gonzalez, and I love Adrian Gonzalez.”

–Do the Red Sox have the pieces to trade for superstars such as Justin Upton this offseason? For many teams, Law believes the answer is yes. There might be some clubs that are looking for what he described as the “country strong,” light-up-the-radar gun pitching prospect who is not to be found in the upper levels of the Red Sox system. But for most clubs, the array and depth of prospects the Sox feature create the basis for deal.

“Your currency may not be good at all 29 banks in the trade market,” said Law. “It might be good at 20 of them. That’s good enough in most cases.”

–Whether there are untouchables in the Red Sox system?

–The trade value of Felix Doubront, whom Law described as a valuable secondary component to a deal because he is big league ready and capable of either taking a spot in the back of the rotation or filling a bullpen role right now.

“He’s valuable as a chip because he’s a big league-ready arm in some role … who will make no money,” said Law. “That’s tremendous value. … You can’t build a deal around Felix Doubront, but he has a lot of value as the second or even third player in a larger deal because he delivers value to the acquiring club from day one.”

Law described Doubront as being a great fit for teams like the Padres and Pirates.

–How the Sox might view the possibility of trading either Lars Anderson or Anthony Rizzo, based on their relative values, their potential and the fact that the team has some redundancy at first base. Law describes Rizzo as potentially having 30-35 home run power, making him “the more valuable property,” although he also noted that Anderson could play first base for a major league club on opening day.

–Does Jose Iglesias make Jed Lowrie expendable? Does Jed Lowrie make Jose Iglesias expendable? Law described Lowrie as being, like Doubront, a very valuable secondary piece to a deal, a major league-ready piece but someone who does not anchor a deal. Iglesias — about whose defense Law raved — might have more trade value, or value to the Red Sox.

–At what position do the Red Sox possess the greatest surplus for a deal?

–Why did Andrew Miller project to be a star in college, and why does he now represent a project hoping to salvage his career.

–How are Red Sox prospects such as Ryan Lavarnway and some Rule 5-eligible relievers performing in the Arizona Fall League?

To listen to the podcast, click here.

To listen to the first episode of the podcast, discussing Baseball America’s list of the Top 10 Red Sox prospects with Sox farm director Mike Hazen and Baseball America’s Jim Callis, click here.

To send feedback or suggestions for future episodes, email aspeier@weei.com.

Read More: Adeiny Hechevarria, adrian gonzalez, Albert Pujols, andrew miller Print  |  Email  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
  • nikolai volkoff

    it figures keith law is nut hugging the over-rated sox farm system. bunch of AAAA and fringe mlb players. iglesias can’t hit, lars anderson was the next Lou Gehrig, kalish, lowrie, kelly will be traded for your next first baseman and he’s over rated too, give me a break.
    k-law is a pompous imbecile from espn probably with the redsox logo tatooed to his scrotum.
    if my dog had a face like keith law’s, I would shave it’s rear end and walk him backwards

  • Justin

    haha, so you know Iglesias can’t hit at all bc of what, 200 abs? He wont have a lot of pop, but there is no way you have enough information to say he cant hit for avg (even tho he hit .290+) this past yr. And he is the best SS in the minors on the defensive side of the ball. Based on his position and defense, he is a 2 WAR player, not counting O, and oh, he is only 20 yrs old also. That is very valuable.
    Anderson had half a good season at AA, and was not at all claimed the next lew Gehrig. He is a a good defender at 1B, and he could thrive in another situation and is major league ready.
    Rizzo was 20 years old during the season, and raked at AA, and had cancer a year ago. He has above avg power, good strike zone awareness, and as well pitch recognition and discipline. He is a MAJOR asset, as most 20 yr olds do not do what he did at AA. All three are very valuable commodities, Rizzo and Iglesias more so than Lars.
    Kelly was 20yrs old during the season, and sure, maybe he struggled with his ERA, but that is bc he started using his secondary stuff more, and tried devloping those pitches. He also raised his FB velocity from 89-91 to 92-93. He has outstanding make-up, control, and command. Most 20yr olds are not even in AA dude. He was very impressive in that context. Its all about context dude. He is easily a top 5 pitching prospect in MiLB.
    Lowrie is only 26, and is avg. at the very least defensively, at 2nd and SS. He also is a good hitter, has pretty good strike zone discipline, and pitch recognition, with gap power. He is aa 2.5-3 WAR player. You obviously KNOW ZERO about how to evaluate players “Nikolai”.
    Keep up the objective analysis KLaw

  • nikolai volkoff

    typical redsox fan(s) defending irrevelant overhyped prospects. iglesias has the bat knocked out of his hands on minor league fastballs just another rey ordonez, the .200 mendoza line at the major league level would be an acheivement.
    lars anderson is another that keeps taking two steps backwards as he moves up the minors, he’ll be doing the cha-cha for the next 5 years, peat and repeat, good luck he’s not the answer.
    kelly moved his fastball Alllllllllllllll the way up to 92-93, Wow!!!!!!!!
    that’s soooooo impressive. get back to me when he has movement on it and can control his off speed, there’s a Big difference between the minors and majors.
    lowrie, kalish, if they were going to do anything they already would have.
    26 year old minor leaguers means AAAA and part time players.
    now go huddle with your buds and figure which team(s) are gonna bite for any of these stiffs for a. gonzalez, braun, or some star player from another team, and other players that can help,
    theo looks like a “tulip or a flamer” and is in over his head as GM, and larry lucchino is a #### head. straw man henry spent about $500 million for a soccer team in Liverpool England, think he’s gonna increase payroll?????
    but keep holding on to your rat infested band box disgrace of a ball park, add another 100 seats and say how great it is. BWaaaaaahaaaaaabwahhhhaaaaaaaa. keep believing all the BS hype tony mazzzzzzzzz gammons and every other writer and call-in show hosts tell you.

    “But, but, but,……… we won 2 world series this decade. and the last century doesn’t count, just the last 10 years.
    yeah come back with that ####, Baseball is well over 100 years old and going, hold on to 10 years of relevency and not the previous 86 and 1918.
    This fan base more than any other knows how to change the subject matter, and put a spin on any objectivity”.

    beckett and whacky lackey in the tank after the new contracts, DL drew what a waste, and an even bigger waste is daiske doosh-k matsuzaka and the 51 freakin million posting fee, was the most Stupid move in the history of baseball. now your team is looking to trade him 5 cents on the dollar. still looking for a shortstop too, Nomar was the greatest and then he gets traded and all rsn says good riddance he su####. and before that A-Rod was gonna sign with you and he was soooooooooooooo great, as soon as he signs with the yankees everyone hates him, throw every player they trade under the bus, manny, mo vaughn, and big ploppi whining to the press about wanting a multi-year contract???????????? a player from another team does that and he’s awful, but big sloppi who can’t field gets a pass.
    like I said before a fan base of hypocrites. and captain snatch face, can’t throw out anybody never could, but saltalamacchia is the savior at catcher even though he is with his 3rd-4th team.
    what a waste, there’s 10 minutes I won’t get back, see ya.

  • diehard

    wow nikolai must know all..not all prospects pan out but most experts (not you) say that the sox farm system is one of the best, but I guess they all must be wrong too..idiot..

  • DaveD

    nikolai – you have issues – I would have to guess you also spat and hurled vulgarities as Mrs. Lee – you are why so many people think New Yorkers are classless

  • hankuspankus

    Yeah, but you gotta admit that “Capt Snatch Face” is pretty funny.

  • tobosox

    You dont have to say anything. His retarted statements say it all. Jackass. Like he said though, all we have to say is “we have 2 rings in the last 6 seasons, not too bad for a gm that is ‘over his head.’”. I say again, jackass. I’ll take 2 rings with no nomar then no rings and a nomar. Sorry Nomar, I loved watching you buddy but we won, so I can’t say it was a bad decision.

  • dmb

    Nikki, if you are claiming how awful Theo is, have you looked in the mirror and listed all the great moves Cashamn has made. I think the Tex and C.C. signings were good but isn’t it aboutthe post season for yankee fans. There post season numbers are in the Arod area code (choker). how is the Burnett signing working out, wasn’t one time with Vazquez bad enough that you had to bring him back for a second tour. If you want to bust on Theo for his 51 mil post on Dicek thats fine but at least he has more wins than Irabu and Igawaful(remember those two) and is still pitching. Now if you want to get into prospects lets talk those Joba the hut the most overhyped prospect inyears has done nothing. The only talant that yankee farm system has produced in the last ten years is Cano.

  • jason bay

    Everybody makes moves that don’t work, you forgot to mention the Sox wanted to sign Vazquez. How is Lackey working out? Vazquez is gone your stuck with lackey for another 4 years. Cano is the only player produced in the last ten years.The Sox have more free agents or players outside there system then the yankees. Yankee infield second Cano, SS Jeter, Catcher, Posada,and the Sox infield First base Youk, Second base Pedy that’s it. Yankees have Rivera, Posada, Cano, Gardner, Pettlie, Cavelli, Hughes, don’t get your point. Theo has made major mistakes and hasn’t won anything since manny left

  • AP

    Rivera, Posada, and Petitte arent even relevant anymore because we are talking about who has come out of these 2 farm systems lately. Cano is a great talent and Hughes lookes to be. However, Gardner hasnt done enough yet and neither has Cervelli. I am not saying Gardner and Cervelli wont become good players for the Yanks but you cant mention them yet with their limited experience. If you want me to list the Red Sox farm guys that have come out RECENTLY then here we go. Papelbon, Pedroia, Youkilis, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Hanly Ramirez (despite he got traded), Lester. All of these guys are established. By my count that is quite a bit more notable players than the Yanks farm system has turned out in the past five to six years atleast.

  • jason bay

    The only thing that is non relevant are the Red Sox. The Sox have done nothing going on 4 years. They have done nothing since Manny left. And will do nothing in 2011. They will be worst then last year. They will lose both V-Mart and Beltre, they have no catcher, Beckett and Lackey who the sox are stuck with for another 4 years both suck. Three of your best players are coming off major injuries. You have no middle relief pitching. No GM Theo sucks, when you need something he will be the last person to fill any needs of the team as proven by 2010. Drew if one could believe is even worst now then 2 years ago. Cameron will be collecting social security. And Juice head Ortiz won’t start playing for the first three months

  • Johanson

    Shall we remind the Yankee fans how Cashman the GREAT almost traded away Robinson Cano (Their BEST Player Right Now..Yes I Said It!) Not Once or twice but Numerous times? Let’s Begin…He Was included in the Alex Rodriguez trade from the Rangers…but the Rangers elected Joaquin Arias instead, He was almost traded a couple of times when the Yankees were trying to acquire Carlos Beltran but that fell through…But That’s Not all he was also included in the Randy Johnson deal from the Diamondbacks BUT the Diamondbacks rejected Cano…None of these teams ASKED for Cano he Was been shopped around (even though Scouts were praising him) But the Yankees have always been known to deal Great Prospects for Aging Stars!…It’s Yankee’s Baseball! Lol

    And It’s funny how some of you guys (Including sox fans) talk about “How we are stuck with Lackey & beckett for 4 more years” are u kidding me? they both had bad seasons, OK! but can you really judge a contract when ONLY Year 1 of 5 has gone by? 2-3 More seasons like the one that passed THEN we can all agree it was a bad signing!..in the OTHER HAND if I were a Yankee Fan (Oh Thank God I’m Not) I wouldn’t talk bad contracts…As the Yankees have a bunch of them…and MORE to come…We Will soon be adding Jeter to that list! The ONLY REASON why Jeter is even worth 15 Million a Yr is because the Yankees might get more in Return in Jeter Brands!

  • Justin

    Nikolai—–Kalish is 22, but nice try. Learn the facts before you talk nonsense. And your rational is so illogical. Kelly is 20 yrs old, with 3 plus pitches, plus command and control. That is a great pitching prospect. You know nothing about how to evaluate prospects.

    hahaha, and JD Drew was one of the most productive OF in the AL the past 4 years. RBI and HR dont mean jackshit. He has been one of the most productive players. He has barely been on the DL. He has been worth about 13 WAR over the last 4 years and has easily been worth his contract. I want a JD Crew type player on my team. Great defender, gets on base at a very high rate (15% BB Rate), and has some pop. Yes please, sign me up. He has been a top 5 OF in the AL in 2008 and 2009. You know nothing about baseball or how to evaluate players.

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