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Theo Epstein’s history of arbitration offers 11.23.10 at 8:27 am ET
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Victor Martinez (left) and Adrian Beltre (center) will both be offered salary arbitration by the Red Sox. (AP)

The Red Sox have until Tuesday to decide whether to offer salary arbitration to their free agents. Of utmost interest is how the team will proceed with its four free agents who would entitle the club to draft pick compensation should they reject arbitration and sign elsewhere.

The team is virtually certain to offer arbitration to Type A free agents Victor Martinez and Adrian Beltre. Both have markets so robust that teams will be likely to sign them even if they must sacrifice a draft pick to do so. Thus, should they elect not to re-sign with the Sox, the Sox are likely to get a pair of draft picks (one from the team that signs them, and another as a compensatory sandwich pick from Major League Baseball).

The team is also likely to offer arbitration to Type B free agent Felipe Lopez, a player whom the club signed in the final days of the season specifically in hopes of offering him arbitration, having him turn it down and seeing him sign elsewhere. As a Type B free agent, a club that signs Lopez will not have to part with a pick; the Sox would, however, get a sandwich pick from MLB.

The biggest dilemma facing the club is whether to offer arbitration to Jason Varitek, a Type B free agent who could net the team a draft pick if he departs, but who might well be inclined to accept an arbitration offer in order to return to the Sox. (For more on the Varitek situation, click here.)

The Red Sox have made no secret of how much they value the draft picks that can be gleaned through free agent compensation. Under GM Theo Epstein, the team has been willing to risk overpaying players who might accept arbitration in order to secure a chance at a pick should the player sign elsewhere. Notable examples of that stance include Jason Varitek and Paul Byrd following the 2008 season and Tony Graffanino following the 2005 campaign.

That said, while the Sox have offered arbitration to all of their Type A and Type B free agents in the past three offseasons, the team has, at times, resisted making such offers for players. Indeed, between the 2003 and 2006 offseasons, the Sox declined to offer arbitration to several of their free agents. (Caveat: it is worth noting that, whereas Type B free agents no longer require a signing club to part with a draft pick, until 2006, a team that signed a Type B free agent needed to part with a second-round pick.)

Most notably, the team declined to offer arbitration to Trot Nixon and Mark Loretta after the 2006 season, and to Kevin Millar after the 2005 campaign.

Here is a look at how the Sox have proceeded since the 2002-03 offseason under Epstein with regards to free agents who could net the team draft pick compensation.

Read More: Adrian Beltre, arbitration, felipe lopez, Jason Varitek Print  |  Email  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
  • http://twitter.com/tdaloisio Tim Daloisio

    I love the turnover from the 2004 team — that’s how to work the system.

  • Robert Thacher

    I feel alot better about the losses of Damon, P. Martinez, and O. Cabrera considering that they netted Clay Bucholtz,Ellsbury, Lowrie and Bard!.I would pat Theo on the back except these results are more about good scouting and good luck.It does help explain why Theo is so ga ga about draft picks.

  • Nick V

    Keep in mind – Nick Hagadone in ’06 and Bryan Price in ’07 were the prospects traded for Victor Martinez in ’09

  • Jimmy G

    They got two things when they let Type A guys walk. They got the draft picks PLUS the saved money to spend on another free agent.

    Here is how it works: let Beltre and Martinez walk…use the money you would have spent on them on let’s say Werth and Dunn PLUS get two (gain 4 lose two) extra draft picks (moving UP in the draft). Not every draft pick or free agent signing is guarenteed but having cheap young players (Bard, Bucholtz, etc) gives you lots of flexibility. THEO is the genius, not Joe from Burger King. Oh BTW, remember how upset you all were when the Sox let Jason Bay walk and signed Beltre. I will enjoy watching Ells, Bard, and Bucholtz pitch and remember 2007 while you all cry about losing Pedro, Damon, and Lowe and say “look at what he did”. Move away from the painting…IT’S A MONET idiots.

  • jason bay

    A genius??? Don’t you mean idiot, he is going to let two of the best players the Sox had last year for draft picks that might pan out?? And i think the Sox with all there injuries and problems were still in the race and this guy let the team rot on the vine and did nothing. Not the work of a genius. This team is going backwards, Detroit will make the playoffs and the Sox will have some nice new draft picks as they watch the playoffs. Can’t wait to here this years spin. so now they have a catcher who can’t even throw the ball back to the pitcher!!!!! This team is a joke

  • CupoChowdah

    “A genius??? Don’t you mean idiot, he is going to let two of the best players the Sox had last year for draft picks that might pan out??”

    Theos track record on draft picks speaks for itself. When he lets players go, it seems to me he gets something in return. Sometimes thats what you have to do in order to build a strong farm system, which they really didnt have before the arrival of Henry & Co.

    “And i think the Sox with all there injuries and problems were still in the race and this guy let the team rot on the vine and did nothing. Not the work of a genius.”

    What did you want him to do, give up top prospects for a 3 month rental (scott downs)? They made a bid on Kerry Wood but once again the yanks swept in and took him. Thats just the way it is. Im glad he didnt give up the farm. Theres too much that went wrong in 2010 to put the blame on 1 thing. Beckett and Lackey didnt have good years along with drew. Paps had a down year too.Add in all the injuries and it becomes a lot more than 1 problem to fix. If they got that 1 bullpen arm, would it have made up for everything else? the answer is no.Sometimes the best moves are the ones not made.

    “so now they have a catcher who can’t even throw the ball back to the pitcher!!!!!”

    Salty has a condition in his arm called thoracic outlet syndrome. hers what it says it is… a group of disorders that occur when the blood vessels or nerves in the thoracic outlet — the space between the collarbone and first rib — become compressed. This can cause pain in the shoulders and neck and numbness in the fingers….Now Salty did catch last year and I saw no signs of any issues.

    Im glad some over emotional fans arent the Gm’s of this team….

  • jason bay

    We have been hearing how great the farm system is , so where were they last year? Darnell McDonald? Bill Hall? They been talking about anderson for 2 years and has done nothing. Lets see how the best moves are the ones they didn;t make Beltre& V-Mart

  • Seven’s Number 1 Son

    We have been hearing how great the farm system is , so where were they last year? Darnell McDonald? Bill Hall?

    Are you kidding me? Do you think those guys were from the sox farm system? You are clearly the idiot and not Theo.

    Lets see how the best moves are the ones they didn;t make Beltre& V-Mart

    VMart not signing was about ecomnomics. Theo places a dollar value on a player and won’t exceed it. He knows that he woudl have got VMART the catcher for 2 years 28m and 2 years VMART the DH/1B for the 2nd 2 years at 14m. Thats what the positions and the bat are worth and he offered 4 years 42m! We have Salty and 2 prospects in the system (Adalberto Ibarra who defected from Cuba and Luis Exposito who is a possible 5 tool player)

    As for Beltre, he has had 2 great years… Both contract years… Theo isn’t gonna offer him the years that someone else will over pay. The guy is inconsistent at best and yes he did have an MVP caliber year last year but he doesn’t have the track record to back it up and Theo is cautious with that stuff.

  • jason bay

    That’s my point, they are not from the system they were picked up off the scrap pile, so i guess the prospects are not even as good as the waiver wire junk they pick up.

  • Dano50

    Not a good point at all Jason. You’re very short sighted. Ryan Kalish and Daniel Bard are not exactly off the “scrap pile”. The other fellows they picked up allowed them to continue to progress as planned. Were it not for injuries (which ought to be obvious…but apparently escapes your limited grasp)even Kalish would have been kept at Pawtucket longer. Helps to have a plan and at least TRY to stick to it. But we can all see you haven’t any idea of that. Baseball ADHD or ADD perhaps?

  • Robert

    Theo had great returns with Damon, Pedro and Cabrera.That was an extreme run of good luck. As for Bay and V.Martinez,had the team proactivly signed them within a month or two,their salaries would seem like peanuts today.And, they would have had the services of two proven players for the next 2-3 years.Draft picks are a real longshot.

  • Robert

    Puting a “$$ value on a player and not exceeding it” is arrogant and stupid. The market place and the times dictate what a player is worth. Not a GM. If V Martinez had been aggressivly pursued a month after coming here,the cost would look like peanuts today.Same thing for Jason Bay. Neither had anything to prove.If any management teams drag their feet on decision making, they will pay more in the end.

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