Full Count
A Furiously Updated Red Sox Blog
WEEI.com Blog Network
RSS
How the Tigers can ruin the Red Sox’ winter (and other leftover Victor Martinez thoughts) 11.24.10 at 7:00 pm ET
By Alex Speier

The Tigers could stick a lump of coal in the Red Sox' stocking by signing Jayson Werth. (AP)

For the Red Sox, there was a silver lining to the fact that the Detroit Tigers signed Victor Martinez to a four-year, $50 million deal. Because the switch-hitting catcher was a Type A free agent who was offered arbitration, the Sox stand to receive a pair of draft picks for his departure, both the Tigers’ top pick and a sandwich pick.

The Tigers actually have the highest unprotected pick in the draft at No. 19 overall. The teams with the worst 15 records in the game cannot forfeit their first-round pick if they sign a Type A free agent; it is only the teams in the upper half who can lose their first rounder. The Tigers, who finished the year with an 81-81 record, were the worst team without a protected pick. Because three teams did not sign their first-rounders, Detroit was positioned to draft in the No. 19 spot in the draft. Now, that pick would appear likely to go to the Sox.

But that is not a certainty. The Tigers could truly play the part of offseason spoilers for the Sox if they elected to sign a free agent outfielder like Jayson Werth. (The Detroit Free Press reports that Detroit may pursue either Werth or Crawford, depending on how much owner Mike Ilitch wants to spend.) Werth (as well as shortstop Derek Jeter, closers Rafael Soriano and Mariano Rivera and starter Cliff Lee) is rated ahead of Martinez in the Elias Player Rankings used to determine what kind of compensation (Type A, Type B, or none) a player will net if signed as a free agent. If the Tigers signed one of those free agents, then their top pick would go to another club (the Phillies for Werth), while the Sox would get Detroit’s second-round pick, roughly 50 picks later in the draft.

So, if the Tigers were to sign Werth, they would not only be grabbing a player who might hold significant interest for the Sox — a player who arguably rates as the best right-handed hitter on the market, and an excellent defensive outfielder to boot — but also they would be tarnishing the one silver lining for the Sox of Martinez’ decision to head for greener backs (and pastures).

–There is virtually no chance that the Sox will be able to replace Martinez’ offense at catcher in 2011. He had an .844 OPS that ranked fifth-best among all big league catchers last year, ahead, even, of Brian McCann. The four catchers who finished ahead of him (Geovany Soto, Joe Mauer, Buster Posey and Carlos Ruiz) aren’t going anywhere. While Jarrod Saltalamacchia has unquestionable upside, but it would be a stretch to expect him to come close to Martinez’ numbers in 2011 after he hit .238 with a .682 OPS over roughly a season’s worth of games (157) spanning the last three years.

Among catchers with at least 300 plate appearances in 2010, the top remaining free agents (by OPS) were Miguel Olivo, whose .765 OPS was almost entirely a product of Coors Field (he hit .211 with a .598 OPS on the road) and Rod Barajas, who hit .240 with a .731 OPS and 17 homers for the Mets and Dodgers.

Barajas is a name worth remembering, since the Sox and Mets discussed the possibility of a deal that would have sent Ramon Ramirez to New York with Barajas heading to Boston in a July swap. That deal was scuttled when Barajas landed on the DL with an oblique injury.

That said, the 35-year-old did almost all of his damage against right-handed pitchers, hitting .256 with a .792 OPS against righties, and .190/.552 against lefties. For his career, he has a .696 OPS against both righties and lefties.

–Martinez is a great player, potentially one of the best couple dozen hitting catchers in big league history. That said, while much has rightly been made of his incredible 2010 season against left-handers (he hit .400/.431/.742/1.173 with 12 homers against southpaws), it is worth noting that he was roughly an average offensive catcher against right-handers.

He hit .257/.315/.379/.694 with eight homers in 371 plate appearances against right-handers. Those numbers were modest. In fact, the average American League catcher hit .245/.312/.374/.686 with eight homers per 371 plate appearances last year.

Clearly, given the prevalence of left-handed pitchers in the AL East (CC Sabathia, potentially Andy Pettitte and/or Cliff Lee for the Yankees; David Price for the Rays; Ricky Romero and Brett Cecil for the Blue Jays; Brian Matusz for the Orioles), the Sox need to find someone who can replace his production against southpaws.

But it is also worth remembering that there are far more right-handers than left-handers. Martinez had more than twice as many at-bats against righties as he did lefties. He managed to do most of his damage last year in roughly one-third of his games; in two-thirds of his plate appearances, he performed at roughly an average (and very replaceable) level.

–It is worth noting that members of the Red Sox organization are not the only ones banging the Jarrod Saltalamacchia drum. At the GM meetings in Orlando last week, Rangers GM Jon Daniels relayed the following assessment of the catcher to WEEI.com:

“I definitely believe he has the ability to be an everyday guy,” said Rangers GM Jon Daniels, the GM who traded Saltalamacchia to the Red Sox. “I’ve always felt that way. We just felt like he needed a change of scenery. Boston is probably a good fit for him. They’ve always liked him. They’ve had success with a variety of different guys behind the plate. Veteran pitching staff probably helps, vs. asking a young catcher to develop a young staff. I hope it works out for him.

“He’s going to work, there’s no question about that. And there’s not a question about the ability. I think in general, with the exception of the [Joe] Mauers and the [Brian] McCanns, it’s a tough position at a young age because there’s so much going on, and I think Salty had that. Plus, he had the weight of being a big name in a big trade [for Mark Teixeira], being called up to the big leagues out of Double-A in a pennant race; there was a lot going on in his life. It’s hard enough to catch and hit every day without having to deal with some of that stuff. Sometimes it doesn’t work out in certain spots. I would be surprised if it doesn’t work out for him.”

–As is usually the case, it will make a lot more sense to judge the Sox’ decision to let Martinez depart at the end of the offseason (and again at the expiration of the four-year deal) as it does now.

Read More: carl crawford, Detroit Tigers, jarrod saltalamacchia, Jayson Werth Print  |  Email  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
  • Sportsbozo

    We all know that VMart can hit,but his defensive numbers were less than impressive. Lets hope that Jarrod Saltalamacchia is ready for the big show..

  • jason bay

    Don’t you mean hope and pray? So why did they sign Scuatro one of the worst defensive SS in the league. Beltre was no gem in the field, those two guys made more errors then any left side of the infield in baseball

  • diehard

    Beltre was no gem??? did you even watch them…also he is one of the best defensive 3rd basemen in baseball..as stated by MANY managers/coaches/players…scutaro not so much but Beltre is one of the best

  • Hank

    Yeah we’ll have Rod Barajas catching when Salty gets hurt as he often does. Lowrie at third base replacing Beltre, Maybe Scutaro at short and an outfield of either McDonald and Kalish, Ellsbury or Cameron and Drew. That ought to be the best minor league team in the Majors. And if Youkilis or Pedroia gets hurt or Ortiz finally hits bottom, we’ll be right in the same ballpark as Cleveland or Kansas City. I’d hold off on buying those Sox tickets this year.

  • http://dockoftherays.com Jason Collette

    The Elias rankings from http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/10/official-elias-rankings.html rank Werth first, followed by Martinez, and then Crawford. If the Tigers sign Werth, it would spoil the Red Sox return but signing Crawford does nothing to the compensation for Martinez unless these rankings have been changed?

  • jason bay

    Mr. Diehard, why do they call yourself that because no matter what the Sox do they can do no wrong. I also heard how great a third baseman he was, but he didn’t live up to those statements. In fact i think he made more errors then anybody in baseball at third base. And yes i did watch him and he was so overrated. At this point who cares he is gone

  • Chris

    Wow, it always amazes me when I hear someone base their entire defensive assessment on error count. Wake up, people!

  • Hank

    The Kansas City A’s used to have a number of bright young players who they most always traded to the Yankees as they were hitting their prime. To put that in context the Red Sox really don’t want to have a prime player laden payroll. They cover their many mistakes by picking up cheap retreads that might bounce back or inserting young, journeyman, type players into the lineup and sprinkle in a few prime players. Look at players they considered once to be star caliber. Brandon Moss who can’t stay in the bigs. Murphy, who’s a 4th or 5th outfielder with Texas. Darnell McDonald who couldn’t land a job with Baltimore or the Reds. We’re being shafted Red Sox fans by poor management and scouting.

  • Robert

    They should have signed Buck right out of the gate. Hit 20 Hr’s,crushes lefties,only 30,would have signed for much less, and we would have taken him away from an AL East team. Instead they wasted time with all of this. Now, they have to hope it is not to late to land Werth or Crawford.

  • http://nesn.com buckhntr

    c’mon now. we’ll always have liverpool

  • MadMc44

    There is no way the Tigers spoil the Sox off season even if they sign Werth in addition to VMart. Theo , if in fact he wants Werth, is the only one that can spoil the sox off-season. Theo thinks too much and by the time he decides it’s too late. He is down to about three weeks to find what he’s looking for and make a decision.
    Re. Beltre–put a number out there you’re willing to pay and for how long-and you need a decision by Dec.7.
    Thanksgiving is over so there won’t be any signings over dinner.
    Let’s do something before pitchers and catchers report…

  • tobosox

    hank….have you forgotten about youk, pedroia, bucholtz, lester, papelbon, bard, els, freddie sanchez or hanley ramerez? We have pretty decent scouting and you would have to be pretty dumb to say otherwise dude.

  • tobosox

    Oh and Jason Bay..you said one thing that makes sens…and that is “who cares?” and the answer is no body, no body cares about what you have to say! you stupid fag.

  • Robert

    Hank, the Yankees still seem to have players gift wrapped and sent to them, even today.The most recent being Nick Swisher from the White Sox for a 5 resin bags.

  • http://www.bestvetsinleeds.com Leroy Hagg

    Oh my goodness! an amazing article dude. Thank you Nonetheless I am experiencing concern with ur rss . Don’t know why Unable to subscribe to it. Is there anyone getting similar rss problem? Anybody who is aware of kindly respond. Thnkx

  • Robert

    Some time has passed since these posts and CC and A-Gone were added.Great moves! Biggest mistake was made two years ago when not agressivly signing V-Mart.A solid respectable offer that summer may have bagged him for 5 yr’s at 35 million.Instead,they futzed and fiddled,did not communicate with his agent,finnally issuing an insulting offer last summer,and let him hit F.A. This coming year,V-Mart could have slid into the DH spot,backed up 1st, or been the cather,giving them a truly monster lineup.With so many left handed hitters in the lineup,having his great RH bat against lefties would have been a huge asset as would his versatility.

  • http://www.breastpumpreviewscenter.com/category/lansinoh-breast-pump-reviews/ lansinoh breast pump reviews

    Tremendous issues here. I’m very satisfied to peer your post. Thanks a lot and I’m looking forward to touch you. Will you please drop me a e-mail?

  • http://is.gd/o4HIBf Brendon Winckler

    Pissed my pants! I am so happy. Just now I won a Canon EOS Rebel T1i camera for only $19.23 off this auction website here http://tinyurl.com/72t4ul3 . My birthday came early! I have not ever had this much luck like today. I normally have no luck ever. So shocked!

  • http://www.drive-lessons.co.uk/driving-lesson.html driving lessons

    Hello there, simply turned into aware of your blog thru Google, and found that it is really informative. I’m gonna watch out for brussels. I will appreciate if you continue this in future. A lot of other folks will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!

  • http://www.squidoo.com/my-home-weathervanes weathervane

    Hello! This is kind of off topic but I need some help from an established blog. Is it very hard to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty fast. I’m thinking about setting up my own but I’m not sure where to begin. Do you have any ideas or suggestions? Thank you

  • http://www.salvarrelacionamento.com reconquistar

    Hello there, simply turned into aware of your blog thru Google, and found that it is really informative. I’m gonna watch out for brussels. I will appreciate if you continue this in future. A lot of other folks will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!

  • http://freeticketsforyou.com FREE tickets

    Pretty nice post. I just stumbled upon your weblog and wanted to say that I’ve really loved surfing around your blog posts. In any case I will be subscribing in your rss feed and I am hoping you write again soon!

  • http://www.grandRapidsNightOut.com/dining Latest news cool stuff

    Hi, i think that i saw you visited my web site so i got here to go back the desire?.I am trying to to find issues to enhance my site!I assume its adequate to use a few of your ideas!!

Red Sox Box Score
Red Sox Schedule
Baseball Analytics Blog
Red Sox Headlines
Red Sox Minor League News
Red Sox Team Leaders
MLB Headlines
Tips & Feedback

Verify