A look at what the Red Sox are giving up for Adrian Gonzalez
|12.04.10 at 12:06 pm ET|
A source with knowledge of the negotiations confirmed that the Red Sox have agreed to send Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes and a player to be named to the Padres in exchange for Adrian Gonzalez. While the deal is not yet done — Gonzalez must pass a physical, and he and the Sox would have to agree to an extension — here is a look at the prospects whom the Sox would be parting with.
In summary: the Red Sox would be giving up three young, high-ceiling prospects who are considered excellent makeup guys. All three are viewed as future big league starters.
Kelly has been described as having the potential stuff and makeup to become a superstar on the mound. His athleticism on the mound has been compared to that of Royals ace (and 2009 Cy Young winner) Zack Greinke. While he had a 5.31 ERA in Double-A Portland this year, and saw his tremendous command numbers take a hit (he more than doubled his walk rate, from 1.5 per nine innings to 3.3 per nine innings), he saw the development of a power arsenal. His fastball velocity regularly touched 93-94 mph in 2010 (up from 90-92 in 2009), peaking at 96 mph, and he added a potential swing-and-miss curve to a changeup that his Arizona Fall League manager, Mike Sarbaugh, described as “a separator.”
The Sox believe that Kelly will hone his command anew with another year, and that if he has advanced command combined with three solid to plus pitches, he could be a future No. 1 or No. 2 starter. Kelly, ranked the No. 1 prospect in the Sox system by Baseball America, was the prospect whom the Padres had to have to make a deal happen.
“Watch the stuff. If you watched Casey Kelly pitch, and watched all of the swinging and missing going on — even though the strikeout numbers aren’t huge — you’d have a hard time, if you know what you’re looking at, saying, ‘This guy [is a disappointment],’” Sox farm director Mike Hazen said during the season. “In the case of Casey Kelly, I know people are going to look at stats and say, ‘This guy didn’t have that good of a season.’ … We beg to differ on that. We feel that he’s had a really good season.”
Is he replaceable? Kelly is (was?) the consensus top talent in the Sox system. There is no other player in the system who so clearly projects to be a star. That said, the team is hopeful that it has two pitchers who could develop into No. 2 big league starters, at least based on their talent. The first is 2010 sandwich pick Anthony Ranaudo, a player who, but for injuries he suffered in his junior year, would have been one of the top five to 10 picks in this year’s draft. Still, Ranaudo has yet to throw a pitch in a professional game, so while his talent appeared elite as an amateur, it remains to be seen how that will translate. The other is right-hander Stolmy Pimentel, a 20-year-old with a 3.64 ERA in his four minor league seasons as well as 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He was added to the major league 40-man roster recently, and Pimentel received strong feedback for his 2010 performance.
This is what Adrian Gonzalez did for the Portland Sea Dogs as a 20-year-old in 2002: .266/.344/.437/.781, 17 HR, 96 RBI, 138 games
This is what Anthony Rizzo did for the Portland Sea Dogs as a 20-year-old in 2010, following his early-season promotion from Hi-A Salem: .263/.334/.481/.815, 20 HR, 80 RBI in 107 games
Rizzo became the 20-year-old to hit 20 or more homers in the Eastern League since Dernell Stenson in 1998. Between his two levels, Rizzo finished the year with 25 homers, 42 doubles and 100 RBI, hitting .260/.334/.480/.814.
“We haven’t seen this kind of power production from a player in the last five years that I’ve been here, especially not from a high school kid,” said Hazen. “He’s an exciting hitter. The numbers speak for themselves, I think. To do that at that age and at that level is pretty impressive.”
It is even more impressive when considering that Rizzo missed almost all of the 2008 season while being treated for Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He showed few ill effects of the cancer treatment during an outstanding 2009 season, but Rizzo emerged with an enormous 2010 that established him as the Sox’ best power-hitting prospect. He clubbed his 20th Double-A homer in his final game of this season.
“Right then and there, I reflected on my season and said, ‘Great year,’” said Rizzo. “This year, there were a couple balls I hit where I got into the dugout and I said, ‘I didn’t know I could do that.’ Hopefully as I get older, stronger, more mature, even more power is to come.”
Rizzo was named the No. 3 prospect in the Red Sox system by Baseball America. He was taken by the Red Sox in the sixth round of the 2007 draft.
Is he replaceable? The Sox do not have another power-hitting prospect with the proven track record of Rizzo. Because the Sox are getting an elite first baseman in the deal, the idea of parting with the organization’s top prospect at that position seemed a natural.
As a 19-year-old in full-season Single-A Greenville, Fuentes hit .270/.328/.377/.705 with five homers and 42 steals in 47 attempts. When the Sox drafted him, they suggested that the cousin of Carlos Beltran has surprising power, with his wrists reminding some of Alfonso Soriano. Even so, speed is more Fuentes’ game. He is a burner with a chance to make an impact on the bases and, especially important for the Padres, in the outfield. Fuentes is considered a potentially well-above-average center fielder, a significant consideration for the Padres in spacious Petco Park, where games are truly won and lost with pitching and defense.
“This guy has some pop. He’s an impact defender,” Hazen said during the season. “He’s a traditional gazelle.”
Is he replaceable? The Sox are dealing with a position of some strength and depth in center field. Ryan Kalish showed that he might be able to play center in the majors, and the Sox believe that Josh Reddick can do so as well. Che-Hsuan Lin, in Double-A, was the best defender in the organization, and had a .386 OBP in his age 21 season. And Jeremy Hazelbaker also turned in a tremendous season as Fuentes’ teammate in Greenville. While he is not viewed as the same high-ceiling prospect (or defender) as Fuentes, he has great speed on the bases (he stole 63 bases, most by a Sox prospect in more than 30 years) with solid pop.
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