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A look at what the Red Sox are giving up for Adrian Gonzalez 12.04.10 at 12:06 pm ET
By Alex Speier

A source with knowledge of the negotiations confirmed that the Red Sox have agreed to send Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, Reymond Fuentes and a player to be named to the Padres in exchange for Adrian Gonzalez. While the deal is not yet done — Gonzalez must pass a physical, and he and the Sox would have to agree to an extension — here is a look at the prospects whom the Sox would be parting with.

In summary: the Red Sox would be giving up three young, high-ceiling prospects who are considered excellent makeup guys. All three are viewed as future big league starters.

CASEY KELLY

Kelly has been described as having the potential stuff and makeup to become a superstar on the mound. His athleticism on the mound has been compared to that of Royals ace (and 2009 Cy Young winner) Zack Greinke. While he had a 5.31 ERA in Double-A Portland this year, and saw his tremendous command numbers take a hit (he more than doubled his walk rate, from 1.5 per nine innings to 3.3 per nine innings), he saw the development of a power arsenal. His fastball velocity regularly touched 93-94 mph in 2010 (up from 90-92 in 2009), peaking at 96 mph, and he added a potential swing-and-miss curve to a changeup that his Arizona Fall League manager, Mike Sarbaugh, described as “a separator.”

The Sox believe that Kelly will hone his command anew with another year, and that if he has advanced command combined with three solid to plus pitches, he could be a future No. 1 or No. 2 starter. Kelly, ranked the No. 1 prospect in the Sox system by Baseball America, was the prospect whom the Padres had to have to make a deal happen.

“Watch the stuff. If you watched Casey Kelly pitch, and watched all of the swinging and missing going on — even though the strikeout numbers aren’t huge — you’d have a hard time, if you know what you’re looking at, saying, ‘This guy [is a disappointment],’” Sox farm director Mike Hazen said during the season. “In the case of Casey Kelly, I know people are going to look at stats and say, ‘This guy didn’t have that good of a season.’ … We beg to differ on that. We feel that he’s had a really good season.”

Is he replaceable? Kelly is (was?) the consensus top talent in the Sox system. There is no other player in the system who so clearly projects to be a star. That said, the team is hopeful that it has two pitchers who could develop into No. 2 big league starters, at least based on their talent. The first is 2010 sandwich pick Anthony Ranaudo, a player who, but for injuries he suffered in his junior year, would have been one of the top five to 10 picks in this year’s draft. Still, Ranaudo has yet to throw a pitch in a professional game, so while his talent appeared elite as an amateur, it remains to be seen how that will translate. The other is right-hander Stolmy Pimentel, a 20-year-old with a 3.64 ERA in his four minor league seasons as well as 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He was added to the major league 40-man roster recently, and Pimentel received strong feedback for his 2010 performance.

ANTHONY RIZZO

This is what Adrian Gonzalez did for the Portland Sea Dogs as a 20-year-old in 2002: .266/.344/.437/.781, 17 HR, 96 RBI, 138 games

This is what Anthony Rizzo did for the Portland Sea Dogs as a 20-year-old in 2010, following his early-season promotion from Hi-A Salem: .263/.334/.481/.815, 20 HR, 80 RBI in 107 games

Rizzo became the 20-year-old to hit 20 or more homers in the Eastern League since Dernell Stenson in 1998. Between his two levels, Rizzo finished the year with 25 homers, 42 doubles and 100 RBI, hitting .260/.334/.480/.814.

“We haven’t seen this kind of power production from a player in the last five years that I’ve been here, especially not from a high school kid,” said Hazen. “He’s an exciting hitter. The numbers speak for themselves, I think. To do that at that age and at that level is pretty impressive.”

It is even more impressive when considering that Rizzo missed almost all of the 2008 season while being treated for Hodgkin’s lymphoma. He showed few ill effects of the cancer treatment during an outstanding 2009 season, but Rizzo emerged with an enormous 2010 that established him as the Sox’ best power-hitting prospect. He clubbed his 20th Double-A homer in his final game of this season.

“Right then and there, I reflected on my season and said, ‘Great year,’” said Rizzo. “This year, there were a couple balls I hit where I got into the dugout and I said, ‘I didn’t know I could do that.’ Hopefully as I get older, stronger, more mature, even more power is to come.”

Rizzo was named the No. 3 prospect in the Red Sox system by Baseball America. He was taken by the Red Sox in the sixth round of the 2007 draft.

Is he replaceable? The Sox do not have another power-hitting prospect with the proven track record of Rizzo. Because the Sox are getting an elite first baseman in the deal, the idea of parting with the organization’s top prospect at that position seemed a natural.

REYMOND FUENTES

As a 19-year-old in full-season Single-A Greenville, Fuentes hit .270/.328/.377/.705 with five homers and 42 steals in 47 attempts. When the Sox drafted him, they suggested that the cousin of Carlos Beltran has surprising power, with his wrists reminding some of Alfonso Soriano. Even so, speed is more Fuentes’ game. He is a burner with a chance to make an impact on the bases and, especially important for the Padres, in the outfield. Fuentes is considered a potentially well-above-average center fielder, a significant consideration for the Padres in spacious Petco Park, where games are truly won and lost with pitching and defense.

“This guy has some pop. He’s an impact defender,” Hazen said during the season. “He’s a traditional gazelle.”

Is he replaceable? The Sox are dealing with a position of some strength and depth in center field. Ryan Kalish showed that he might be able to play center in the majors, and the Sox believe that Josh Reddick can do so as well. Che-Hsuan Lin, in Double-A, was the best defender in the organization, and had a .386 OBP in his age 21 season. And Jeremy Hazelbaker also turned in a tremendous season as Fuentes’ teammate in Greenville. While he is not viewed as the same high-ceiling prospect (or defender) as Fuentes, he has great speed on the bases (he stole 63 bases, most by a Sox prospect in more than 30 years) with solid pop.

Read More: adrian gonzalez, Anthony Rizzo, casey kelly, reymond fuentes Print  |  Email  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
  • msherry

    I guess Theo works in strange ways…but it sure looks as though the Sox may get some short-term pizazz over long term gain. I would have kept the “youngins”.

  • Gibba1924

    Gotta give up something to get something. All in all thios appears to be a steal!

  • steve

    looks like a steal to me too. both prospects appear to have great potential, but are unproven.

    I expected them to have to give up Bard or Iglesias or Kalish.

  • jarrod

    I’m happy with this trade. Casey isn’t guaranteed to be a superstar & Rizzo might be a future Gonzalez, its now SD’s gamble. We know what were getting back in Gonzo. My next guess is they try to pick up Werth to a Jason Bay type deal because he is a Righty but who knows we still got Mike Cameron & Ryan Kalish.

  • Dan

    IMO, it’s always better to get proven talent in its prime than to rely on unproven talent. However, for those fans that will complain about the “rich getting richer” so to speak, they have to realize that this trade happened in part because the Red Sox simply drafted and scouted well, something every team in the MLB can do. San Diego is getting some nice talent in return, so this could be a win-win for both sides.

  • Fred

    “Rizzo became the 20-year-old to hit 20 or more homers in the Eastern League since Dernell Stenson in 1998″

    Who ?????

    Exactly

  • http://weei.com Paul Thomas

    Excellent deal, not given up any Major League players. Still need Jason Werth to get to World Series..

  • SoXorGoHoMe

    Adrian Gonzalez is an incredible talent. In 2010 he was battling shoulder problems and still hit .298 with 31 homeruns along with a 3rd straight all-star appearance. The year before he had 40 homeruns. And this was all done in a pitchers ballpark that is hard to hit homeruns out of. In 2010 he led the majors with runners in scoring position with a .404 average. He also has two gold gloves. This is an incredible deal. Adrian Gonzalez is right up there with Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard for the best 1st baseman in the game.

  • flag waiver

    Had to be done…good timing. now who’s next in a number of players needed. Beltre, I’d sign him and put Youk in leftfield. Werth and or Crawford should be interesting. Still hope for Jason Upton. JD Drew is just about history another Mike Lowell for 2011. We’ll see……..

  • tito

    If Beckett and Lackey suck this year, then this trade is a moot point!!!! They scored plenty of runs last year. Pitching wins championships. If Texas or NY get Lee, then they are the favorites again.

  • Steve_in_MA

    We absolutely MUST turn to the bullpen and solidify that before we move on to outfielders with further power bats.

  • DC

    Agreed, Whoever gets Lee is the frontrunner again. This is a nice trade in all. Whoever said put youk in Left is a moron. They no longer need beltre, no place to play him. Skip crawford and Worth, let some of the young talent get the reps and take over JD’s spot next year. Crawford and Worth are not worth the money. Fill in the bullpen and this team can contend. If they can get Upton, it’s going to take Ellsbury and other prospects, not sure how I feel on that one.

    Agreed if Lackey and Beckett suck again it’ll be a long ass season. Trade Dice-K.

  • brett

    I think that this looks like a very good trade for the sox, on Becket and Lackey I think that the reason that they stuggled just signed with detroit.

  • Bill

    Excellent deal by Theo, Sox get a super star caliber player for the next 6-8 years. They filled a huge hole in their lineup and didn’t have to give up any players that were going to have an impact until at least 2012 or beyond. Now just get Crawford and some relief help and Sox fans should be very happy next season.

  • http://yahoo shawn P

    As big of a sox fan as I am, I feel like mabey we are just as much the evil empire as the yanks, to the rest of the teams.

  • mike s

    Anyone who doesn’t like this deal hasn’t seen Gonzalez play. He is as good defenisively as Texiera and while he’s not a switch hitter, his swing is tailor made for Fenway. He will add 20 points to his batting average, easy, playing 81 games at Fenway instead of Petco. In short, he will be better for the Sox than Texiera is for the Yanks.

    By the way, did anyone else catch that fact that the last person to have similar stats to Rizzo at double A was Dernell Stenson? Nuff said….. There are NO guarantees with prospects. Trust me, all Sox fans will LOVE this deal by May 1st.

    The first person that argues that the Sox should have kept Beltre because his stats were better last year gets voted off the island….

  • boris

    I was scared they would lose Bard. I like the trade. Win now.

  • joe

    @ shawnp: nobody is despised as much as the yanks but yea, we may be in the top 5. However, that goes hand in hand when you’re a top 5 contender each year. We sucked for 86 years and people (we all know someone) went to their grave dreaming of a championship but never experienced what we did in 04. So in memory of all those who passed I say this to the rest of the country, go bleep yourselves!

  • http://dlafleur@derry.k12.nh.us Dan

    I think the Sox came out ahead finally ! great things come to those that wait it out !

  • Creed

    You guys are getting in all likelihood a 7 win player/ annual mvp candidate. Gonzalez is great guy too, best of luck to Adrian and his family in Boston.

  • pistolero

    This was a great move, one that I’ve been waiting for them to make. Casey Kelly is a few years from being a major leaguer. Plus, the rotation is solid, and their contracts are pretty long. So I don’t really see a place for him to fit in the five-year plan.

    This is an especially good deal when you consider the fact that it eliminates the need to sign Adrien Beltre. Once Beltre gets his big contract, he is going to take it down a peg or two. He’s the type of player who goes balls out in a contract year and then kicks back once he gets his payday. I guarantee he will underperform this year.

    All we neeed now is Carl Crawford and I think we’re a lock for at least the wild card.

  • pistolero

    Gonzalez hits 50+ home runs in 2011. He’ll hit 60+ if Ortiz shows up this year.

  • Tony Morelli

    Extremely happy with this deal. A-Gon is a highly talented power hitter that we absolutely need right in the heart of the order. He’s a lefty and Fenway has a short porch in right field. BONUS!

    I’m giving Theo and upper management an A+ on this deal.

  • yagru

    Love this deal.. would like to see them get Werth too.. to the person who mentioned pitching, yes its true but the sox have the starting rotation pieces already.. it all depends what kind of year Becket and Lackey put out.. the sox scored plenty of runs last year, but it they whent through serious droughts and had a lack of clutch hitting..

  • BronxBob

    I can’t wait for you cry-babies to scream bloody murder in a few years when Casey and Rizzo are All-Stars. Does Hanley Ramirez come to mind? Gonzo is a good addition, but it was the pitching staff you needed to fix. Remember that when you see the Cliff Lee press conference on 161st St. in the Bronx boys and girls. Papelbon will burn down the house with his mouth this year because he now knows Theo was willing to play “Enter Sandman” in the 9th inning this coming season and send Jonny boy packing, and Big Poppy will be whinning by the All-Star break about wanting an extention. Lackey sounds like Kermit the Frog and throws like Miss Piggy and Dice-K is up for the lead role in “Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde”. Good luck to YOU Mr. Francona.

  • pistolero

    @BronzBob: The Yankees window is closing, if it hasn’t already shut.

  • Redsox931

    @bronxbob and what did trading han ram get us? i forget? I think it was josh beckett, who prior to last year getting hurt was one of the best pitchers in the game, and should have a bounce back year, and what else did we get in that trade? mike lowell, who lead the sox in both of there world series runs. Yes having han ram would be great, but you have to give up some prospects to win now, maybe if the yankees knew that last year they would have gotten lee already?

  • Jim

    “Pitching wins championships” What? Tell that to the Braves. No it does not. The Sox pitching will continue to be solid, but you have to hit to win. Gonzalez, Ortiz, Youkilis, et al (werth maybe?) will hit -and complement the pitching with great hitting – THAT wins championships.

  • Jim

    Bronxbob is a a ‘pink hat’ fan. Dude – your analysis is very, very shallow. Go do some research and try again.

  • Zak

    @Fred and @mike s

    Dernell Stenson was murdered 7 years ago. Maybe you should consider that before categorizing him as a bust because we’ll never know. I know people who saw him in Ft. Myers the year they got Manny and they said during the games he swung better than Manny. We’ll never know what could’ve been, but we can’t say he was a bust; that’s an insult to his memory.

  • tobosox

    No Jason Bay commont? Oh well…Fucking idiot…

  • Elaine Apthorp

    Assuming the extension gets worked out effectively, this is a first-rate deal for BOTH TEAMS. The Pads get genuine value (three potential major leaguers, one or two of them likely to be standout players down the road) and the Sox get a thoroughly proven, outstanding middle-of-the-order guy in his prime, who should be a huge contributor for years to come. There’s more work to be done–bullpen work, right-handed-hitter work, etc.–but this is a hugely positive move for the Sox.

    I am a little nervous about the developing pileup of lefty hitters in Boston. I love Carl Crawford, but. . . probably the fit is Werth, or to stand pat and await the blooming of the promisng Ryan Kalish. Presuming Ells is still in this mix, Crawford would give us an all-lefty outfield and we’d be lookin’ at five or six of our starters being pure left-handed batters next year. Can’t imagine that’s Theo’s plan–unless he knows something about the future destination of Cliff Lee that the rest of us don’t.

  • Elaine Apthorp

    And I will miss adrian the crazy man beltre. dude plays his heart out.

  • Robert

    If this deal works out,I am very glad that we did not part with Bard, Lowrie and Ellsbury. Knowing the Sox luck in trades,Kelly will turn out to be Roger Clemens, but if AG is extended and the shoulder heals well, we could be looking at some 50 HR seasons. Me thinks Lowrie is really going to blossom this year and take the SS spot. If so, look for 25 HR’s, 80 RBI, and a .285 average. This could be an amazing infield!Also expect Ells to bounce back to the player he was in 09.Add Werth with a Drew/Cameron platoon, and you’ve go a great hitting team with catching being the only weak spot.

  • TPM

    Love Gonzalez deal. Concerned that we’ve replaced either Beltre or Victor’s bat so far, yet still need to replace the other one. Saltalamacchia is not a big hitter. Would like to see Werth in right, strong arm and need another RH bat.

  • Name: Mark

    There is no way Gonzalez would be a good fit for the Cubs.
    He is a totally classy guy, he isn’t a whiner or a hot dog, and he puts forth 100% effort on every play.
    Zambrano, Soriano, and Ramirez would find him offensive, both personally and professionally.

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