Full Count
A Furiously Updated Red Sox Blog
WEEI.com Blog Network
RSS
A look at the Red Sox’ interest in outfielders 12.07.10 at 2:54 pm ET
By Alex Speier

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. — Red Sox GM Theo Epstein made clear that his club could proceed in a number of directions in addressing its outfield.

–The team could stand pat, using the same corps of J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Cameron and Ryan Kalish that it already has under contract.

–The team could pursue a “complementary move” for a player that would permit them to send Kalish back to the minors.

–Though Epstein did not articulate the possibility, the Sox could also still make a splash and pursue Carl Crawford, far and away the best outfielder on the market.

So, realistically, where do things stand? Based on conversations with a handful of industry sources, here is a look at some of the options that exist.

THE CARL CRAWFORD SWEEPSTAKES

There has been some suggestion that the seven-year, $126 million deal that Jayson Werth signed with the Nationals could take the Sox out of the market for Crawford. And if both Crawford and the industry ends up using Werth’s deal as a baseline to affix a value to Crawford, perhaps resulting in something along the lines of an eight-year, $160 million deal, then it seems likely that the Sox would pass on the dynamic left fielder.

But, according to multiple sources, it is premature to say there is no chance that the Sox sign Crawford. They have no doubt determined what they consider a fair value for the outfielder. If he is open to taking a deal on those terms, they could land him. But, as the Sox have demonstrated already this offseason with Victor Martinez, they are willing to affix a value to a player’s services — even one who they really like — and walk away if he wants (and gets) more from elsewhere.

“Do you have the guts to walk away and get criticized for it, knowing it’s the right thing?” Epstein said in talking about contracts. “Some organizations do, some don’t.”

The Sox have suggested they are looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder, but it is hard to see the Sox walking away from Crawford simply because he is left-handed. Indeed, Epstein disputed the notion that a team can be too left-handed on Monday night. So, the Sox will no doubt continue to explore the former Rays star, but whether there is a financial fit remains to be seen, with several teams (notably including the Angels, and potentially the Yankees and Rangers) still interested in the top position player on the market.

In addition to the Werth deal, the market for Crawford, one source noted, is also complicated by the fact that it likely hinges on what happens with starter Cliff Lee. Teams that are in the mix for Lee could turn their attentions to Crawford if they lose out on the left-hander. So the Crawford situation could take time to resolve.

THE TRADE MARKET: JOSH WILLINGHAM AND CARLOS BELTRAN

The Nationals definitely have made outfielder Josh Willingham available. Offensively, he has long fit the profile of what the Sox look for. He has a career .367 OBP and .841 OPS while averaging 25 homers per 162 games for the Marlins and Nationals.

That said, while the Sox would certainly explore the market for the 31-year-old, it might be difficult for them to give up a meaningful prospect in return. He did not play last year after Aug. 15, and he ultimately required surgery on his left knee. So, there are health questions, which in turn also translate into performance questions, though he is described as an adequate defensive outfielder. At the same time, he will likely pull in what one source estimated to be a salary of roughly $6 million. So, he represents a player for whom a team might be reluctant to give up a valuable, major league-ready pitching prospect. In the case of the Sox, sources were skeptical that the team would consider dealing Felix Doubront in order to acquire the outfielder, who will be a free agent after the 2011 season.

Carlos Beltran will likely be a player whose availability the Sox would discuss with the Mets. The switch-hitter hit .255/.341/.427/.768 last year in his return from knee surgery, though he had huge numbers (.321/.365/.603/.967 with five homers) in Sept. One talent evaluator said that it appeared that he wasn’t able to rely as much on his lower half as he had in the past, resulting in less power. Even so, the Mets are open to discussing potential deals for Beltran, who had impressive stats (.292/.364/.646/1.009) in his 55 plate appearances against lefties.

So, according to multiple major league sources familiar with the sides’ thinking, the 33-year-old will be at least worth discussing with the Mets. But the cost of acquisition — both in terms of the amount of money that the Sox would have to absorb of his $18 million salary next year (the final year of his seven-year, $119 million deal) and in terms of the player(s) that would have to go to the Mets — would be relevant. As of mid-day, there had not been any substantive talks between the Sox and Mets about Beltran.

THE OTHER FREE AGENTS

Magglio Ordonez is certainly on the Sox’ radar as a potential fit for their complementary outfield vacancy. He was a very productive hitter for the Tigers last year (.303/.378/.474/.852) before suffering a season-ending fracture of his ankle. The status of his recovery from that procedure would represent a significant consideration for a team that pursues him. So, too, would the dollars and years sought by the Scott Boras client.

He could be an impressive lineup addition, capable of delivering thump, especially against left-handers, against whom the 36-year-old hit .371/.457/.714/1.171 last year. But will he be seeking an $8-10 million deal, or even a multi-year deal, coming off of surgery? Price could certainly be a sticking point for the long-time resident of the AL Central.

Matt Diaz is also on the market after being non-tendered by the Braves. He is described as something of a lesser version of Willingham, a hitter who has been productive in three of the last five years, but who suffered through a down 2010, hitting .250/.302/.438/.739, though he did have an .830 OPS against lefties. His outfield defense is viewed as being below average.

Read More: carl crawford, carlos beltran, Hot Stove, josh willingham Print  |  Email  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
  • Joe Fan ACK

    Magglio Ordonez is the guy from that group. No sense in giving the NYM’s anything for Beltran, but how about J.D. from him? I personally do not see any need for JD this year, this team needs new attitudes and faces.He is a NL player, possibly get a bullpen arm for him and eat some contract.Besides in the playoffs against CLE, he has done SH**T. Crawford would be tempting now but 7 years down the road he wont be.Anyone besides me remember his cheap shots, rabbit punches on Coco Crisp? What will the pink hats think of that?

    MO(RF/DH)
    JE(CF)
    MC,RK(LF)

    This would be a great outfield

  • http://giggle.com Jason Jennings

    I would love if we could pry away felix pie from the orioles, he is a true super star and is probably cheap because orioles are stupid.

  • Vinn

    Regarding “too many left handed hitters,” the left/switch/right handed hitters for recent world series champion line-ups:

    10 – Giants: 5/1/2
    09 – Yanks: 2/4/3
    08 – Phils: 4/2/2
    07 – Sox: 5/2/2
    06 – Cards: 6/1/1
    05 – ChiSox: 6/1/2
    04 – Sox: 4/3/2
    03 – Marlins: 5/1/2
    02 – Angles: 4/1/4
    01 – DBacks: 4/4 (no switch hitters)
    00 – Yanks: 4/2/3

    First, only the ’10 Giants and ’03 Marlins had the same balance; no other combinations were alike. Granted switch hitters offer flexibility, but even those hitters sport sizable splits. Bottom line is there’s no blueprint for match-ups. You could say “well, they face Matusz, Romero, Sabathia, Price and possibly Lee in the AL East,” but that stuff is overblown (ie. Adrian Gonzalez vs. Cliff Lee: 7 for 10, 3 2Bs, 1 HR)– not to mention you could probably show match-ups that don’t favor other AL East teams’ hitters.

    Balance may seem ideal, but the record shows over the last decade, two teams have won the WS with 2/3 or more of the line-up having RHH; two others have won having to bat back-to-back RHHs (Giants/Marlins); and one (’06 Cards) contained 6 RHHs (plus a pitcher, arguably worse than any positional player).

    I think they could figure out what to do with Crawford.

  • Robert

    The problem with the Red Sox “affixing a value” on a player is that their value is never up to par with the real market. This arrogant expression is one of many that floats down from the front office and has to be swallowed by the fans.Now that they have Gonzo for one year anyway, they should not start nickeling and diming. Ordonez and Downs should be next on the list.I don’t want to hear them say that they would be content with the outfield they currently have. Are they kidding? They don’t even have a left fielder.The other three are huge question marks.

  • tobosox

    Way to do your HW vinn. With all of that being said…I just do not feel like Crawford is worth the money he will demand after the Werth contract has been anounced. I would love to have him running the bases in a sox uni, but you can only have so many high payroll/profile guys out there and win. You need to sprinkle in young tallent such as salty and Kalish…NOW, do I think Kalish should be our started on opening day? No. I think we need a one year type of player. And if we can make a steal and grab Beltran for a year, Do it. I wouldn’t give up much for him, but if they want to pay for a portion of his salary and take Scutaro(I’m only saying that because Peter Gammons said it on MLB network) and someone like reddick. I feel like it worth it. Another reason why I am reluctant to sign crawford is the draft pick we would give TB..We have seen what they can do with high picks, and we have also seen what the sox can do with them. I don’t want them to have an impact player that could be on our team. If another move is going to be made, please let it be through trade so we can keep the draft picks. Moreover, we all need to relax about the outfeild. This lineup will score plenty of runs the way it is. Bullpen help is numero uno right now. Again, do not sign a type A free agent. There is no guarentee with relief pitchers and when you give up a pick, it needs to be a guarentee.

  • Hub

    Kudos to Vinn. I guess that’s what bothered me the most about losing VMart was his effectiveness batting from the right side against left-handed pitching. I just hope the Red Sox have bigger plans for their outfield than Drew, Ellsbury, Kalish and Cameron.

  • Mike

    Crawford is not worth anywhere near what he’s asking. Save for SB’s, his stats don’t measure up to Beltre’s and based on equal AB’s, his stats aren’t that much better than V-Mart’s. According to the figures being thrown around, the Sox could have kept V-Mart and Beltre for about $110 Mil—and Crawford will cost them close to $140 mil, at least. So what’s the benefit of Crawford over these two. There isn’t one. Seems to me it’s subtraction(stats) by subtraction(Beltre and V-Mart), by addition(Crawford).

  • kman

    Don’t get me wrong, Crawford is looking for a lot of money, but if you have ever watched Crawford play, he brings more to the table than both Beltre and VMart. Plus, he is younger, and has a better track record. VMart was viewed as a DH long-term, and Beltre has had the reputation of playing huge in a contract year. Crawford has been a star since he came into the league years ago. Crawford is an above-average fielder in left, a position we have a hole in right now (Cameron is not a viable option for a starting outfielder going into the year), he can hit for power (an excellent number #3 or #5 since AGON is here) and average, plus on the bases, he flies. Beltre had a great year last year, and maybe it was a sign of what he can do playing for a good team in a good hitters ballpark, but he has struggled previously after getting a big deal, and I can’t recall a point in time where Crawford had a bad season. And where would Beltre play now? Also, VMart provided little outside of offense, and as a DH his offense was similar to Vlad’s, and Vlad won’t make $9 mill this year, so why would a team pay Vmart $3 mill more? Crawford might be too pricey, but to see Beltre and Vmart as a better option than Crawford doesn’t make sense to me at this point.

  • Simma

    Magglio would be a nice addition to the Sox, a one year Beltran type deal could be perfect. At 36, I think he can produce 22-28 homers and drive in 85 – 100 RBI’s. Even at 10 million, it could be a great deal for the sox, then at the end of the season, you have his money, JD’s and Big Papi’s coming off the books to invest in some big time sluggers. I wouold love to have Crawford, but it is starting to look unrealstic at dollars and years. Let’s get Downs and some other relievers over the next few weeks!

  • steve

    The Sox had thought lots of their 1999 #1 first rounder, then traded him for a veteran pitcher who lasted a very short time due to injuries.

    Perhaps bringing in a healthy 30 year old who still can cover any outfield position defensively and who could perhaps help in the bullpen might be considered by the current management.

    The cost would certainly be minimal compared to the 10′s of million$ that might be expended on questionable health issues.

Red Sox Box Score
Red Sox Schedule
Baseball Analytics Blog
Red Sox Headlines
Red Sox Minor League News
Red Sox Team Leaders
MLB Headlines
Tips & Feedback

Verify