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Three for Tuesday: Why J.D. Drew is Trot Nixon and Terry Francona’s march to Cooperstown 02.22.11 at 1:11 pm ET
By Kirk Minihane
J.D. Drew has hit 76 home runs in his four seasons with the Red Sox. (AP)

J.D. Drew has hit 76 home runs in his four seasons with the Red Sox. (AP)

Three Red Sox thoughts for a Tuesday as I keep one eye on ESPN, where in the last 45 minutes I have heard the word “great” associated with Carmelo Anthony (zero NBA Finals, zero First-Team appearances), Chris Bosh (zero playoff series wins) and Cam Newton (as many NFL pass attempts as Shane Falco). I’m actually begging for a montage of dunks set to unlistenable music …

1. Let us start with a little Player A, Player B:

Player A: .278 batting average, .366 on-base percentage and .464 slugging.

Player B: .270 batting average, .377 on-base percentage and .476 slugging.

Player A represents Trot Nixon‘s numbers with the Red Sox. Player B represents J.D. Drew‘s numbers with the Red Sox.

It’s amazing — all you ever hear from the Pink Hat crew is that J.D. Drew isn’t Trot Nixon. Turns out Drew has been almost an exact offensive replica of Nixon over the last four years.

But I get it. Drew doesn’t look the part. He didn’t own Roger Clemens (which I think an underrated factor in Nixon’s enduring popularity — the guy hit .400 with an OPS of 1.450 in 40 career at-bats vs. Clemens, including five homers) and he isn’t a Red Sox player by baseball birth, and he sure isn’t (and I’m holding my nose here) a Dirt Dog. Nixon’s baseball-reference page is sponsored by FenwayFanatics.com, who describe Nixon as “a gritty, hard-nosed player who was always ready to do what was asked by the Red Sox.”

Look, I have no idea if any of that true and neither do you. Really, what does “whatever is asked by the Red Sox” mean? The guy played right field, put up pretty good numbers and got paid a ton of money for it. Did I miss anything else?

But numbers are numbers, and they tell me that Drew has been Nixon at the plate over the last four years and they also tell me this: In 10 seasons with the Red Sox Trot Nixon played in at least 130 games three times. In four seasons with the Red Sox J.D. Drew has played in at least 130 games three times.

So, put aside the contract — is it Drew’s fault that he was offered more money than he’s worth? — and ask yourself this: If you think Trot Nixon was a productive player for the Red Sox don’t you have to feel the same about Drew?

2. Since we’re all assuming the Red Sox are going to win the World Series this year (with apologies to those haters who have predicted less than 100 wins and a World Series loss to the Phillies) isn’t it time for Terry Francona to book that room at the Otesaga Resort Hotel in Cooperstown for induction weekend in, say, 2017?

Think about it: Every manager with at least three World Series titles is in the Hall of Fame (with the exception of Joe Torre, a lock for future enshrinement). I think Francona is a terrific manager, the best in baseball today, but he joins some serious high cotton with another title. Joe McCarthy, Casey Stengel, Connie Mack (who managed 56 for years, or five more years than Francona has been alive), Walter Alston, Torre, Sparky Anderson, Miller Huggins and John McGraw are the fellas with at least three titles.

3. So we’ve now had 43 seasons since Carl Yastrzemski won the Triple Crown. When you look at the guys who have played over that span it’s amazing that no one really has made a serious run at it (I’m talking down to the last weekend of the season). Forty-three seasons. In the 43 years prior to 1967? Nine Triple Crowns (eight players — Ted Williams did it twice). Babe Ruth’s single-season and career home run records didn’t last 43 years. Hank Aaron’s career mark? Nope. Roger Maris? No luck.

Clearly, any short list of the top active candidates to win the Triple Crown starts with Albert Pujols. He’s played 10 seasons and has finished in the top three in Triple Crown categories a total of 16 times. So he’s the guy.

But how far down do we have to go before we arrive at Adrian Gonzalez?

If you project Gonzalez’s road numbers from 2010 to a full season you get 40 homers, 118 RBI and a .315 batting average, numbers that would have finished seventh, second and fourth in the AL last season.

But I’m thinking Gonzalez is going to hit more homers and knock in more runs with this team, isn’t he? Better lineup, he’ll see more pitches, all that stuff. Can he hit .340? Probably not, but maybe he sneaks in a .325-.330 year in the right season. I understand that I’m jumping ahead a little (you think, Minihane? The guy hasn’t had an at-bat with the Red Sox and you’ve got him as Yaz 1967 2.0) but I can’t think of five guys currently playing with a better chance than Gonzalez to win the Triple Crown.

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  • Robert

    Good or bad, Terry will be the Red Sox manager untill he decides to step down. Kind of like Joe Torre, who was a mediocre manager untill he joined the Yankees. Great point about J.D. Drew. He has been a good ball player,just like Trot Nixon was. He was supposed to be better, but so was Trot. People have really treated him unfairly here. About the Triple Crown, if no one did it during the steroid era,it’s not likely to happen again. But, if A-Gon’s shoulder is healthy,and his drives to left are high enough to clear the Monster, you never know. Great statistics!

  • Aashish Sharma

    Here’s the thing about Drew. It’s the money he’s being paid..I know you mentioned it’s not his fault he was offerred $70 mil over 5 years, but if you are paid that kind of money (especially in this town) the expectation is you will produce. If Drew came here with an annual salary of $6-8 million people wouldn’t say anything. You also have to take into account his personality. It doesn’t bode well with people that he comes across as a lazy, reserved player. Trot like you said was a fan favorite because of his hard play and “dirt dog mentality”. And lastly Drew can be frustrating to watch because he gets red hot for 2 weeks every now and then and hits .500. But then he cools off for 2 months and falls off the radar. Trot was a consistent .260 hitter, and most people would prefer that. Not to mention he dominated righties. That’s just a few of the reasons we will always love Trot Nixon here, and will just remember JD Drew as “that other right fielder”.

  • http://letsgosox.blogspot.com jere

    You have no idea if Trot Nixon was a hard-nosed player? You can’t include a two-game pre-rookie season in the total amount of seasons for Trot either.

    If your argument with Drew is that he’s exactly as good as Trot Nixon while making 56 million in 4 years to Trot’s 27 million in 9 years, you’ve kind of made the argument for the other side.

  • SoxOrGoHoMe

    Two Points:
    1. FINALLY!!!!! Someone with some baseball intelligence and common sense writes an article explaining that JD Drew actually is a good player. He has been mistreated by the media and the fanbase. He does not deserve the amount of disrespect that he’s gotten. I personally love JD Drew. I’m going to enjoy watching every at-bat he has this season.

    2. I completely agree with you about Adrian Gonzalez. I think Miguel Cabrera has a very good shot at winning a triple crown too, but AGon’s not far behind. He hits for a high average and has tremendous power. And the thing that people haven’t mentioned is the fact that he put up 100 RBI seasons in San Diego with hardly anybody on base ever. He hit .404 with runners in scoring position last year. If he hits .400 with runners in scoring position in 2011 he’ll easily have 150 RBI’s. Just think about all the times Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Crawford are going to be on base. It’s going to be incredible.

  • joker

    Baseball intelligence? This guy has been a stiff from day one. 14 million for what? he doesn’t hit for average, he has no power, drives in nobody, But his obs is good who cares? so he walks a lot i would rather have a guy who hits and does something besides watch all the pitchs go by. i am going to in joy watching him leave town, and get half of what the sox paid him

  • John Kreiss

    The comparison of JD Drew to Trot Nixon is not valid. JD Drew is a much better player, and signing him over Nixon was an upgrade.

    That said, Drew is way overpaid, and was a bad signing even though he is a better player than Trot Nixon.

    It’s not Drew’s fault that the Red Sox elected to give him all that money. It’s Theo’s.

    Overall, I think Theo has done a good job, but the JD Drew signing was not one of his best moments.

  • John Kreiss

    Terry Francona has been the best Red Sox manager ever. If he wins a third World Championship with the Red Sox, he should be a first ballot hall of famer in my opinion.

  • Relax

    The problem with Drew is that everyone thinks he’s a wimp. He had that label before he came to the Sox and it stuck. When Nixon got hurt everyone was fine with it because they thought he got hurt from “playing hard”. Drew is just a quite guy who gets hurt probably as much as Nixon did. But Nixon played beyond his ability, and Drew has a ton of ability and never put up the crazy great year that was expected of him.

    I agree with Kreiss that he is better than Nixon. Even if the hitting numbers are equal, Drew is the better fielder. Given the lack of great outfielders in the AL it makes Drew that much more valuable. He may be a wimp at times, but he is an undervalued member of this team.

  • John

    Kirk-Your note was filled with an astonishing amount of ignorance and arrogance. Ignorance for the fact you have no understanding of the fan base you serve and arrogance for thinking that your technocrat stats tell the complete story. Trot Nixon was paid 6-7 million per year to be a number 6 -7 hitter and play a solid right field. JD Drew was paid 14-15 million per year to be a middle of the order force, play spectacular right field defense and be a gaming changing force. Nixon lived up to expectations and never complained. Drew failed to live up to expectations and complained.

  • McNab

    John K: wicked good points, all.

    Relax: Yes – absolutely Drew’s had that tag for a while and people often don’t see past it. And the part that makes me laugh is I’m pretty sure JD runs with it because he honestly doesn’t care what others think, which I have to respect; and he likes to see the reactions…there is NO way that he made his recent hamstring statements without knowing full well what the fallout would be. It’s kind of funny actually (provided, of course that he puts up decent numbers; otherwise we roast him).

    Joker (choker?) ol’ buddy…there you are!! …still not fooling a soul. You’re a yankers fan and you’ve proved it again and again…your cute little systematic assassinations of the Bosox players one by one has us so worried about our inferior team – the one projected to roll over the MLB by those with a lot more upstairs than you (which is everyone) – that the nation might just crumble! I can’t give you credit for having much more than a dog turd between your ears, but I will give you credit for consistency, by golly. Once again: it was our decade. It IS our century. And if you and your buddy baby ruth can get someone to read the roster to you, you’ll see that none of that is about to change.

  • http://www.fenwayfanatics.com/ FenFan

    Kirk,

    Thanks for mentioning my site (FenwayFanatics.com) and my sponsorship of Trot Nixon’s page at B-R.com. Wonder if you noticed that I also sponsor J.D. Drew’s page?

    What do I mean by “…always ready to do what was asked by the Red Sox?” From day one with the Sox, I always felt that he gave his everything on the field. Do I believe the same of Drew? Yes, actually.

    Feel free to come and visit us any time. :-)

  • Robert

    One caution about A-Gon and the triple crown. The guys hitting in front of him don’t walk much. They are good hitters but none has had a .400 OBP. It’s one of the problems with this team. This will hurt his chances for an RBI title.People don’t want to talk about statistics on this board, but they tell the story. Gonzalez himself will probably be the only guy with 100 walks.

  • McNab

    Matter of perspective Robert. If your DH and cleanup hitters aren’t doing so hot (which has often been an issue for us) and the chance you’ll get moved around the bases aren’t so good; then good players like Youk and Pedroia aren’t going to rely on that and hope to get batted in after taking a walk (in Ells’ case he just needs to be set straight and made to hit the ball down, which I see happening this year). Getting stranded on base does nothing for your team.

    That may have just changed. It’s going to be great fun to see what happens to OBP’s.

  • Robert

    Hey Mcnabb, good post! Walks are about the only thing I agree with the Sabermetric crowd about. They are important,as a walk is as good as a hit. Crawford could elevate his game to HOF level if he would be more selective, but your not going to change him now. Ells,must be more patient to be considered a classic lead off hitter.. Pedey could draw more walks but no one can argue with what he had done and how he does it. I just don’t see alot of OBP in front of Gonzalez.

  • Bob H.

    Four years ago I said that Drew was a younger Trot Nixon. He wears the same number, and gives you the same numbers in the same number of games.

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