I’m pretty sure that this is more than you wanted to know about pitching in the middle of the strike zone. It often doesn’t end well for the pitcher and the results have been awful for the Red Sox so far in 2011:

* – Through May 11, major league hitters had seen over 28,000 pitches (about 18 percent of all pitches thrown) that could be considered belt-high and over the middle of the plate (“middle/middle”). And hitters have taken advantage of those pitches, too, hitting .315 with a .594 slugging percentage and a home run every 23 at bats. On all other pitches, the league has hit .222, slugged just .329, and homered once every 54 at bats.

Really, it’s about what you would expect.

Now let’s look at it in terms of my pitch-by-pitch scoring system: “Middle/Middle” pitches have averaged +1.47 points per pitch while all other pitches have averaged just +0.11.

“But Gary, if hitters are ripping middle/middle pitches, why is the quality points per pitch average BETTER on those pitches”? Well, because the pitcher gets credit for every strike (swinging, called, or fouled off) but never gets docked for balls, walks, or hit batsmen.

But when Red Sox pitchers have thrown “middle/middle” this season, they’ve averaged just +1.30 points per pitch, second worst in the majors:

+1.25 – Astros
+1.30 – Red Sox
+1.31 – Rangers
+1.34 – Royals

Opponents have hit .331 with 20 homers (one every 19.8 at bats) against Red Sox’ middle/middle tosses. The Giants, with pitchers like Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, Matt Cain, and Brian Wilson, have been most effective on middle/middle pitches so far:

+1.70 – Giants
+1.62 – A’s
+1.61 – Nationals
+1.61 – Indians
+1.59 – Yankees

There are a couple of ways to be more effective than average despite middle/middle location. A pitcher can have great “stuff”, or he can be lucky.  Here are the top individual pitchers so far this season in terms of average points on middle/middle pitches (min. 100 such pitches):

+2.10 – Philip Humber, White Sox
+2.03 – Tim Lincecum, Giants
+1.98 – Kyle Lohse, Cardinals
+1.95 – Jaime Garcia, Cardinals
+1.93 – Josh Beckett, Red Sox

Also in the top ten: Josh Johnson, FLA (+1.86), CC Sabathia, NYY (+1.84), and Jered Weaver, LAA (+1.79). With an exception or two, it’s a who’s who of “stuff”.

What about the other Red Sox pitchers?

+1.42 – Daisuke Matsuzaka
+1.03 – Jon Lester
+1.02 – John Lackey
+0.83 – Clay Buchholz

Notes: Buchholz’ (+0.83) ranks fourth worst in the majors and OPS allowed on middle/middle (1.180) is second highest in AL (Carl Pavano, 1.182) …That’s quite a regression from his +1.52 average in 2010…Last year, over 15% of swings against Buchholz’ middle/middle pitches did not make contact. This year: Just 5.2%… Toronto was able to finish off 13 at bats on middle/middle pitches vs. Lackey on Wednesday night, going 6-for-13 with a home run…Lackey had allowed 6+ hits in a start on middle/middle pitches only once since joining the Red Sox prior to Wednesday… Matsuzaka has coaxed just three misses out of 70 swings (4.2%) on middle/middle pitches so far in 2011 after 11.1% last season.

Big props to JoeLefkowitz.com and his Pitch F/X resource for making this research possible.