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What history says about the Red Sox’ opportunity in this year’s draft 06.04.11 at 2:11 pm ET
By Ryan Hannable

The Red Sox have four of the first 40 picks in next week’s Major League Baseball draft. It’s a rare situation for any team to be in, as only eight times since 2000 has a team had four of the first 40 picks. Those include the 2010 Angels, the Athletics in 2002 and 2004, the Braves in 2000, the Cubs in 2002, the Giants in 2007, the 2005 Marlins and 2004 Twins.

Having such a high number of top picks allows the organization to possibly take chances on guys whom they might otherwise shy away from if they did not have as many top picks. The Sox often refer to using top picks as a stock portfolio, using some to acquire high probability guys but for whom the payoff is capped, and others on higher risk players (whether due to makeup, signability, or tools that remain in the early stages of development) who can also offer huge returns if everything clicks.

“You want to get good players,” general manger Theo Epstein said. “You want to combine upside and probability but when you don’t have extra picks, it’s sometimes hard to take that extra risk with the very high upside. You can diversify your portfolio a little more when you have more picks and take that chance.”

Teams that have had such a large number of top picks haven’t fared as well as one might think:

–The Marlins had four of the first 40 picks in 2005, a draft that was renowned for its depth of impact players. Yet only two players selected by Florida that year (Chris Volstad, Ryan Tucker) have made it to the big leagues, and they have seen limited action.

–In 2004, the Twins had five of the first 40 selections, but only three made it to the big leagues, with Trevor Plouffe failing to take advantage of a shot at being Minnesota’s starting shortstop, Glen Perkins making his impact as a left-handed setup man (a capacity in which he has been admittedly terrific this year) and Matt Fox now existing as a tweener in the Red Sox system.

–The Cubs had four of the first 40 picks in 2002 and none of the players made it to the majors. (Rich Hill was a fourth-rounder for the Cubs that year.)

There were, however, a few teams that had success with being in this position.

–The 2002 Athletics had seven of the top 40 picks in the famous Moneyball draft. While some of the players never panned out, they produced three big league regulars — outfielder Nick Swisher, jack-of-all-trades Mark Teahen and starter Joe Blanton — who became established big leaguers.

–The 2004 Athletics received limited return from three of their four picks, though they did select an All-Star in closer Huston Street with the No. 40 overall pick.

–The Braves had four of the first 40 in 2000 and drafted Adam Wainwright (a future All-Star who was used to acquire outfielder J.D. Drew in a trade) and Kelly Johnson.

–In 2005, the Red Sox were in a similar position as they are now. They had five of the first 47 (23, 26, 42, 45 and 47) selections. It was a very successful draft as they drafted quality players who are having success at the major league level, including All-Star pitcher Clay Buchholz, current lineup regulars Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie, and a pair of pitchers who have contributed at different points in Michael Bowden and Craig Hansen.

Epstein says the Sox will approach this draft like they did in 2005.

“It’s pretty similar,” he said. “You can cast a wider net of talented players, there is kind of a sweet spot in the draft. You know you’re not going to get the top 10 guys in the draft, we’re not picking quite that high, but that next tier of guys who might be mid-late first rounder’s we could get repeated looks at those guys and try and get them in the right order.

“This year we are spending a lot of time on players 10-40 on the list because we will probably end up getting four of those players.”

Having such a high number of top picks has energized the scouting staff and the organization is looking forward to next week’s draft.

“It’s always a great feeling to have extra picks,” Epstein said. “I think it energizes the scouting staff the whole year because they know going in and seeing players, there’s a much better chance you can actually get a guy.”

“You know when you rank the first 40 guys, you know you’re getting four of them,” he added. “That’s a nice feeling. We just have to do our job and get them in the right order and see how things break.”

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  • Evergreen Monster

    I think this is good news for the farm. I think most of us agree this is where Theo shines as a GM. His development record is better than his ability to sign FA’s. At least ones that work out in this town.

  • Fisk

    Theo doesn’t run the draft Ameil Sawdaye does.

  • http://Enteryourwebsite... Chris

    Yeah, and Theo has no influence whatsoever.

  • Babe Ruth Is Dead

    You think Theo just says…yeah…okay…whatever you want…these are some of the most important decisions the entire organization makes…and he is just hands off…yeah right!

    In any successful business you delegate…get input…and then make the important decisions yourself….using everyone’s weighted input (weighted based on how important you feel their feedback is)

  • http://www.sportshouting.com SportShouting.com

    Here’s a link to a mock draft http://bit.ly/mC4Fn6 a lot of good prospects to choose from. It will interesting to see if the go with a college or high school player.

  • murraysons

    Pitching and power hitters is what they need.. Lars hasn’t continued developing and Anthony Rizzo is absolutely killing it in the Padre organization. I’d still make that trade ten times out of ten though.

  • Craig

    I read once and scanned this article 3 more times and shouldn’t have had to. Why didn’t you put what pick numbers the Sox have in this years draft? You thought to put what picks the ’05 Sox had and who cares now. It would be nice to know what picks we have THIS year…

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  • Uncle Buck

    The whole first line was on, no doubt. Krejci was incredible as well. This team does seem to have a switch. Let’s hope from here on in they leave it on. Tuukka was huge.

  • Uncle Buck

    This is not the Bruins team we saw limp down the stretch. The fire appears to have been lit. And, as you pointed out, some chips are starting to drop in the B’s favor, similar to the Cup run. Not going to get too excited yet, but there is a lot to feel positive about that was not there 2 weeks ago.

  • Uncle Buck

    lol….Mike, Tom, Pete….whatever name he fancies for the trolling moment. Nice showing by the B’s up in Toronto. Loved the fact they took the two up there. I was up your way in the great state of Maine today. Had to make the long arse ride up to Bangor and back. Too much wheel time on 95.

  • Schwank

    Great game from an entertainment standpoint. They were steady and Rask came up big. Toronto is fast and we knew that going in. I knew that if we could withstand the first 5 minutes they’d slow and they did and we got the first break!
    To that idiot Callahan, (who I can’t figure out whether he’s just stirring the pot or whether he truely doesn’t have an in-depth knowledge of hockey or sports) who was trying to make a case this morning for Kessel and why did the B’s trade him? Sure he passed the eyeball test last night and he is incredibly fast. Had the Bruins twisting and turning to keep up with him. But that’s not all it is. He’s inconsistent and disappears at times. He doesn’t back check or play defense. Finally a knowledgeable caller called in and explained + – and how that apllies to Kessel’s career. It was the knock on him when he was here and remains still. Callahan, to his credit, listened albeit he whined about the importance of + or – a little. It’s very important. The equivalent in basketball is the instant offense bench guy that plays 15-18 minutes a game. You ask yourself “why don’t they play that guy 35 minutes?” Because there’s an aspect of their game that is missing (i.e. defense). And because of this they become a liability. That’s Kessel most of the time. Stick em on the powerplay ….sure he’s great. Just not a two way player.

  • Bruinman86

    Bangor is 2 hours north of me. Not much up there. I’m in Freeport, just 15 min up the road from Portland. We’re you kind enough to take some of those damn black flies back with you?? Meanwhile, i noticed Mike didn’t respond. Guess the B’s need to lose for that to happen. What a puss.

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