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The decline of J.D. Drew? 06.22.11 at 9:09 am ET
By Alex Speier
J.D. Drew has hit 76 home runs in his four seasons with the Red Sox. (AP)

J.D. Drew ranks near the bottom of big league outfielders in nearly every major offensive category. (AP)

At a time when Josh Reddick has been giving evidence of a maturing approach at the plate, J.D. Drew has been unable to make any kind of offensive impact for the Red Sox. His game-ending punchout on Tuesday night — a check swing on a 95 mph fastball against Padres closer Heath Bell – placed a punctuation mark on a season-long drought.

Red Sox manager Terry Francona maintains that he still expects that Drew will go on one of his annual hot streaks in which he proves capable of hitting home runs in bunches. Yet while that possibility certainly looms, it is also fair to ask whether Drew is simply in a state of career decline at age 35. Certainly, his standing among his peers suggests as much.

For years, Drew’s numbers have suggested a player who is subject to an unfair degree of criticism. This year, however, statistics offer him no quarter.

There are 68 outfielders in the majors who have had at least 200 plate appearances. Of those, Drew ranks in the bottom 20 percent in nearly every offensive category.

Drew’s nine extra-base hits are tied for 64th – just one ahead of notorious batter’s box lightweight Juan Pierre. His .230 average is 61st; his .328 slugging percentage is 63rd; his .660 OPS is 57th. Though his .332 OBP ranks in the middle of the pack, his 19 runs (in a lineup that leads the majors in scoring) are second to last and his 18 RBIs are 57th.

Moreover, there are other telling aspects that speak to a decline in his other tools. He has become a more conservative baserunner as his speed has diminished, as he’s taken an extra base (first to third on a single; first to home on a double; second to home on a single) just 17 percent of the time, less than half the 38 percent clip at which he did so last year.

In fact, 2011 marks the third straight year of decline in the rate at which he’s taken an extra base. That trend points to the toll taken by the game on his legs at age 35.

It is important to note that metrics such as Fangraphs’ UZR and John Dewan’s Plus/Minus suggest that he is still playing defense at a high level. He still gets picture perfect breaks on most balls and takes remarkably direct routes, something that has played a significant part in the Sox’ display of excellent early-season outfield defense. His collaboration with Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford to create one of the best defensive outfields in the majors should not be overlooked when contemplating his relevance in the lineup.

Nonetheless, his lack of impact in other aspects of the game has made it fair to wonder whether others — most notably Reddick, who is considered a very good defensive outfielder — should get a greater opportunity to play.

When the Sox signed Drew to his five-year, $70 million deal, they were well aware that he would likely show decline by the final year or two of the contract, as he moved beyond his prime. That was, quite simply, the cost of doing business with the free agent following the 2006 season.

Now, while there is still time for Drew to go on a tear that suggests that rumors of his demise are to some degree exaggerated, thus far in 2011, that has yet to occur. Drew has performed like a player for whom the end of days as a productive regular is nearing, making it fair to wonder what kind of alternatives the Red Sox should explore — whether internal or external — going forward this year.

The situation lacks urgency thanks to the exceptional play of the roster from top to bottom. The team is winning in bunches with Drew in the lineup. Nonetheless, while Drew was one of the better outfielders in the majors in his first 3 1/2 years in Boston (at least when playing, his power, patience and defense were all well above average), it has become increasingly fair to view right field as an area of potential upgrade for a team that is striving for remarkable goals.

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  • Fred

    At least we know he isn’t using any PEDs. gotta respect that

  • Craig in CT

    I don’t remember Drew having that “annual” hot streak at the plate last year. We kept waiting for it, but I think last year was the first year when it never came, and in a year where the team needed it most due to injuries. I’d like to see Reddick get increased time over the next month, either to establish himself or to make him a more enticing trade chip.

  • Fred

    yeah like bring him jd late in a game with a lead as a defensive sub

  • Mikey

    I don’t want to pile on but…the man just seems not to care anymore. He has always been laid back but this year he just seems to be totally out of it. Tito is only using him only against right handed pitchers and giving him a ton of time off…I don’t know how he can accept that huge paycheck every two weeks with a straight face…

  • Paglia Guy

    Retire, JD, I’m begging you!

  • FRANCES E SOLITRO

    j.d. SHOULD BE GIVEN HIS RELEASE SINCE YOU MUST PAY HIM ANYWAY. THIS WAY WE CAN GIVE PEOPLE LIKE JOSH REDDICK A CHANCE AND HELP THE TEAM

  • Shaughn

    as a transplanted sox fan in Atl They Called him Just Disabled Drew Here seems that they should platoon him with Reddick at least

  • JackClarke

    9 extra base hits in 230 at bats..he’s hitting .230. Is there anyone who would miss him if he was released today…..another HUGE THEO BUST!

  • Cal

    I don’t see those “numbers” that suggest “a player who is subject to an unfair degree of criticism.” Last year he hit .255, with .279 and .280 the previous seasons. RBI 64-68 per year, HR 19-24 per year. And the numbers don’t capture how much time he spends taking called third strikes (another hat trick capped by that ninth inning whiff) and bouncing out to first or second base. Here’s the most important number: $14 million per year. Is this a $14 million player?

  • MadMc44

    Thanks JD for your contributions. Either keep him as a 4th or 5th OF for def. or DFA for the balance of the season. Cameron and McDonald combined have made fewer contributions than Drew.

    I would slide Reddick into RF and platoon if necessary with Cameron. When CC returns I would either DFA Drew and /or DFA McDonald. When JD is released he may retire or hook up with the DBacks and finish his career with his brother. McDonald will probably clear waivers and take an assignment to the PawSox.

  • Dano50

    MadMc44…have you looked at Cameron’s (and McDonald’s) stats? WORSE (much) than JD’s. Just sayin’. Why bother with “platoons” if the guys you use are even worse?

  • Jim

    Before anointing Reddick as the Sox RF for the rest of the year, it pays to look at his minor league stats. He’s a notorious streak hitter and is likely to go 2 for 30 as he is 12 for 30. This year he started fast for the PawSox, but was down to .230 when he was called up.

    If Drew were to made a back up the first player to try is Cameron and determine it playing everyday improves his hitting. He’s never platooned and some guys simply have trouble adjusting.

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