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Red Sox draft update: Where things stand with midnight deadline looming 08.15.11 at 4:50 pm ET
By Alex Speier

Sandwich pick Jackie Bradley is one of several Sox draftees whose status remains unresolved as a midnight signing deadline nears. (USC Athletics)

It has been quiet with the final hours ticking off to the midnight deadline for draft picks to sign with the teams that selected them in June.

In some cases, deals are essentially done but have not yet been approved by Major League Baseball, which is trying to delay news of player signings to bonuses in excess of the recommended slots for their draft pick positions as long as possible. In other instances, players and their advisers are hoping that the pressure of a deadline will force teams to sweeten their offers. Meanwhile, in some negotiations, teams are digging in with the expectation that they don’t need to compromise in their offers, instead believing that when players are faced with the reality of signing now or going to school and entering a future draft in which there may be some kind of hard slotting system, the draftees will blink and take the guaranteed money.

It is a recipe for brinksmanship that in many cases won’t be resolved until midnight nears. That said, here is a look at where things stand with the eight top Red Sox picks whose status remains unresolved as of this afternoon:

1st round (No. 19): RHP Matt Barnes, University of Connecticut

The logjam of college pitchers still has yet to break, and so, Barnes’ negotiations remain unresolved. With less than eight hours until the signing deadline, 23 of the 33 first-round picks remain unsigned; Barnes is one of seven college pitchers who has yet to turn pro. He has taken a physical, and his signing is considered something of a formality, though he is likely waiting to see if any of his college colleagues signs before he finalizes an agreement. Still, Barnes is considered virtually certain to sign — the only question is for how much. (MLB’s slot recommendation is $1.386 million.)

One consequence of the fact that he has not yet signed is that it decreases the likelihood that he will be able to pitch in games this year. Whereas some college pitchers in the Sox system have been able to use a full summer in Lowell as a springboard to having their first full-season assignment come in High-A (Justin Masterson, Kyle Weiland and Alex Wilson all come to mind as recent examples of that pattern), Barnes’ late signing diminishes the likelihood that he could follow such a course. It’s not impossible (Daniel Bard and Chris Hernandez are examples of Sox pitchers who signed late but opened their first full pro seasons in High-A), but a late signing does decrease the likelihood of a developmental fast track.

1st round (No. 26) C Blake Swihart, commitment to University of Texas

The Swihart negotiations have been kept relatively quiet, but it is safe to suggest that the 19-year-old — who would be draft-eligible as a sophomore if he fulfills his lifelong ambition of enrolling at the University of Texas — has immense leverage in negotiations. As a switch-hitting catcher with first-round talent, he has a rare skill set. Meanwhile, whereas most high schoolers have to wait three years before they again become draft-eligible after their junior season, Swihart would be 21 by the end of his sophomore year, thus giving him an extra year of draft eligibility if the Sox don’t pay dearly for him.

“Is there a better position to be in than a sophomore-eligible switch-hitting catcher at the University of Texas who was just a high school senior who got taken in the first round?” one Swihart associate, who did not have direct knowledge of his talks with the Sox, mused earlier this summer. “Any decision you make is going to work out pretty freaking good.”

Swihart will likely come down to the wire with the Sox. While some teams viewed him as unsignable (one was deterred by the prospect of a $4 million asking price for his bonus), the Sox took him with the understanding that they were willing to pay to blow past the slot recommendation of $1.197 million to get a deal done. Certainly, his talent and negotiating position suggest that he could challenge the $2.55 million bonus received by Anthony Ranaudo last year and Casey Kelly‘s $3 million bonus (spread over five years, with a present-day value of $2.4 million) in 2008 to rank among the biggest bonuses ever given to a Sox draftee under GM Theo Epstein.

Swihart is expected to sign (unlike some other Longhorns recruits, he is not currently in Austin, instead remaining in New Mexico today), albeit at significant cost. Put another way: He is likely to put enough of a dent in the Red Sox’ signing budget that it would be an unenviable position for a draftee not to have signed if and when the Sox and Swihart settle on a bonus.

1st round supplemental (No. 36 overall) LHP Henry Owens, commitment to University of Miami

The big, lanky left-hander out of Southern California was expected to need an over-slot bonus to sign, and as such, he was viewed all along as unlikely to sign until today. That said, while he is not expected to sign for the slot recommendation of $889,200, all indications are that the deal for the big, lanky southpaw will get done.

1st round supplemental (No. 40 overall) OF Jackie Bradley Jr., University of South Carolina

It’s no surprise that Bradley’s future will not be known until later tonight, given that he is represented by Scott Boras, who is a champion of using teams’ sensitivity to time pressures to extract more money from them. Last year, Boras was the adviser to Ranaudo when the pitcher agreed to sign in the final two minutes before the deadline.

Bradley has suggested via his twitter account that he expects to return to school.

“I feel like I’m coming back [to South Carolina],” he tweeted on Friday.

And Bradley, who entered the year as a candidate to be drafted in the top 10-20 picks (before underperformance and then injury dropped his draft stock), could indeed roll the dice and return to school as a senior without leverage. The slot recommendation for the No. 40 overall pick is $829,800; the No. 20 pick garners a recommended bonus of $1.359 million, more than $500,000 more than the No. 40 pick; the No. 10 pick has a recommended bonus of $1.863 million.

So, conceivably, Bradley could take a risk and turn down what will likely be an over-slot offer from the Sox at No. 40 to try to position himself to be a premium pick in next year’s draft, which isn’t considered as deep as this year’s. He wouldn’t be the first Boras client to do so. That said, it would be a considerable risk, given that his struggles at the start of the year predated his injury.

He’s accomplished plenty in college (College World Series MVP, two-time national champion, etc.). Bradley is believed to feel ready to start his pro career, and it would again be surprising if that outcome did not arrive by the end of Monday.

4th round RHP Noe Ramirez, Cal-State Fullerton

Ramirez was in Boston for his physical last week. The right-hander with a swing-and-miss changeup and advanced command of his low-90s fastball may be the first of the Sox’ unsigned picks to reach an official deal on Monday. Updated: Ramirez has signed for $625,000. For more on him, click here.

5th round SS Mookie Betts, commitment to University of Tennessee

The Sox were high on Betts when they drafted him, and believed that negotiations with him to sign would be fairly straightforward. However, that expectation has not proven the reality. As of late Sunday night, there was no dialogue between the Sox and Betts. The shortstop — who recently rejected a bonus in line with a second-round pick (meaning at least $387,000) — may well get squeezed out of bonus money that might be redirected towards other players whom the Sox took, most notably, Swihart and/or eighth-rounder Senquez Golson.

That said, a detente and signing are certainly possible. A year ago, negotiations between the Sox and pitcher Brandon Workman (a second-round selection) looked like they might sour, to the point where the Sox pursued other draft targets (most notably Lucas LeBlanc, who agreed to sign rather than going to LSU). Instead, the pitcher and his family pushed to get a deal done on the final day, and he came down from a request of $1.25 million to sign for $800,000. If Betts is to sign, it would likely have to follow a similar template.

7th round LHP Cody Kukuk, commitment to the University of Kansas

Kukuk is a tall, athletic left-hander who generates plus velocity. He is considered a raw pitcher with a high ceiling. However, prior to the draft, he sent an email to all 30 clubs stating that he was seeking a $1.05 million bonus to pass on a college career. The Sox have made clear that they won’t go to those lengths to sign the seventh-rounder. As of this afternoon, there was no deal yet involving the high schooler.

8th round OF Senquez Golson, commitment to Ole Miss

Golson has been torn for a few days between the lure of playing college football in his home state or accepting a seven-figure signing bonus to sign with the Red Sox. The Sox do believe that Golson is passionate about playing baseball (something that the team views as a crucial first question to ask about two-sport stars), but the decision has clearly been a wrenching one for a player whose raw tools are impressive as any position player whom the Sox drafted aside from Swihart. Golson flew into Boston on Monday morning to continue his conversations with the Sox; as of this afternoon, there was still no resolution on his situation. Updated: Golson has taken a physical and remains in Boston, but with less than five hours before the deadline to sign, he remains undecided as to whether to sign or return to Ole Miss.

Read More: 2011 MLB Draft, Print  |  Email  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
  • Matt

    Ummm Jackie Bradley is not your typical Scott Boras client. I live in MA but go to the University of South Carolina and he was in two of my classes this past year. He’s a great guy and isn’t seeking attention or bluffing to get a few more extra million from a team-something that Boras clients are notorious for. I believe him in that he is 50-50 at this time.

    Plus, he deserves a higher price than his slot would indicate. He messed up his wrist and had he not gotten injured would have been a LOCK for the 10-15 range, and very well could have snuck into the top 10.

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