| Why the winter trade market is unlikely to yield a closer | 11.15.11 at 4:41 pm ET |
MILWAUKEE — While the logical focus on alternatives to Jonathan Papelbon is on the free agent market given the wealth of closers (there are three closing Francisco’s alone!) available in free agency, it is worth asking whether the trade market could prove fruitful in identifying a better option. After all, relievers available in trades are typically younger, less expensive and closer to their career primes.
And certainly, there will be teams that will be open-minded should teams such as the Red Sox approach them about trades for closers. Pirates GM Neal Huntington, for instance, recently said that his team would at least listen if approached by other clubs about All-Star closer Joel Hanrahan.
Other creative solutions potentially exist. The Cubs, for instance, would likely listen if another team wanted to make a heavy play for Sean Marshall, who is signed for $3.1 million in 2012 and then will be eligible for free agency after the year. The left-hander who has been among the most dominant in the game (10.1 strikeouts, 2.5 walks and 0.2 homers per nine innings along with a 2.45 ERA over the last two years) in a setup role.
That said, the likelihood is that teams with closing needs focus on the free agent market rather than the trade market right now for a couple of reasons.
First, the wealth of available free agents means that it would make little sense to add a reliever at a substantial prospect cost right now. For the most part, teams would rather sacrifice money and perhaps one compensatory draft pick (depending on the shape that the new Collective Bargaining Agreement between baseball owners and players takes) to sign one of the many available free agent closers.
Secondly, from the standpoint of the potential sellers, many teams believe that it makes far more sense to move pitching in-season rather than during the offseason.
Typically, every contending team is looking to upgrade its pitching as the trade deadline approaches. That, in turn, can create fierce competition for a relative scarcity of arms. As one executive noted, while there is some risk to taking a pitcher into the season (there is the possibility that injury or ineffectiveness can undermine his worth as a trade chip), there tends to be a greater premium on the return for dealing a pitcher in-season.
During the offseason, with free agent arms available to plug into rotations and bullpens, the trade value of relievers tends to fall short of what it is during the season because teams can explore other avenues. During the season, aside from the occasional waiver wire transactions or the acquisition of players who have been dumped by another team, there is no alternative to upgrading the pitching staff than via the trade market.
Last year, the Padres captured the most significant return for a reliever when they dealt setup man Mike Adams to the Rangers on the July 31 deadline in exchange for a pair of high-ceiling arms in Joe Weiland and Robbie Erlin, a pair of pitchers who reached Double-A in 2011 and who project as potential big league starters. That is the sort of return that few teams would be inclined to part with during the offseason, when there are free agent alternatives who would not put such a dent in a prospect pool.
All of that being the case, in this offseason market, the primary strategy for teams such as the Sox that are looking to shore up the back of their bullpens will likely remain focused on the free agent options. The price that a team would be willing to pay to trade for a closer and the price that a team would rightly seek to move a top-notch reliever are less likely to match up at this stage of the year than they would be towards the deadline.
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