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What to make of the big Yu Darvish news 12.20.11 at 1:23 am ET
By Rob Bradford

The Rangers are ready to invest heavily Japanese starting pitcher Yu Darvish. (AP)

John Blake knows winning posting fees.

In November, 2006 — at the general managers meetings in Naples, Fla. —  Blake was the media relations director for the Red Sox when they won the blind bid to exclusively negotiate with Daisuke Matsuzka. Monday night the Wenham native was holding the same position for the Rangers when Texas earned similar honors — claiming the top bid for the rights to work out a deal with the most highly-regarded Japanese pitcher since Matsuzaka, Yu Darvish.

The differences between the two experiences? For starters, Texas’ bid came in at $51.7 million, just north of the Red Sox’ bid of $51,111,111.11 million for Matsuzaka.

But there’s more …

As much hype as there was surrounding Matsuzaka, who was one year older than the 25-year-old Darvish when making his entrance into Major League Baseball, the Nippon Ham Fighters’ righty may be more of a sure bet than the Sox’ hurler. It’s not hindsight, or caught-up-in-the-moment optimism. Darvish simply might be better equipped for success in the United States.

When the Rangers placed their bid on Darvish (which they can get back if no deal is reached in 30 days) what they are banking on is somebody to fill the gap left by C.J. Wilson. Wilson went 16-7 with a 2.94 ERA while totaling 223.1 innings in 34 starts in 2011. Darvish — pitching with an extra days rest — went 18-6 with a 1.44 ERA, striking out 276 while walking just 36 in 232 innings over 28 starts.

What is remarkable is that the 6-foot-5 Darvish has averaged exactly eight innings per appearance over his five seasons with the Ham Fighters, never totaling an ERA of more than 1.88. As former major leaguer C.J. Nitkowski expertly points out in his column, “Why Some Japanese Pitchers Struggle in MLB,” was one of two pitchers in the six-team Pacific League (which uses the designated hitter) to top 190 innings.

While Matsuzaka’s resume prior to coming to the Red Sox was built on a wide variety of pitches, to go along with a fastball that was supposed to be in the mid-to-high 90′s, Darvish’s size and motion suggest less room for interpretation when it comes to actual “stuff.”

There was a reason the Rangers (and reportedly Blue Jays) were ready to invest more than $100 million in Darvish. Top of the rotation arms are hard to come by. And when those kind of arms are made available in the free agent market while the pitcher is still in his mid-20′s, then the appeal is understandable.

But, the potential investment won’t be without risk. Lessons Red Sox followers should be all too familiar with.

As was with the case with Matsuzaka, Darvish would be coming to the United States having thrown a ton of pitches for his age. According to ESPN.com, the big righty threw 120 or more pitches in 15 of his 28 starts in ’11, with seven appearances going 130 or more pitches. The report states that the last MLB pitcher to total as many as seven outings of 130 or more pitches was Randy Johnson in 1999. Darvish also had nine starts of 140 or more pitches in ’10. (It should be noted, however, that he was getting at least one more days rest than he would be afforded with the Rangers.)

Pitching in Texas, without executing a familiar routine, can be challenging when August and September rolls around. Wilson took great pride in his preparation and seemingly found a solution when it came to performing in the Arlington heat. Considering the adjustments facing Darvish, throwing 100 degree heat into the equation after he had been used to pitching primarily in temperature-controlled domes, might be worth watching.

And while the next 30 days don’t figure to be a chaotic as what the Red Sox went through with Matsuzaka during their negotiations with Scott Boras, the leverage Darvish holds in regard to having the option of returning to Nippon is very real.

The guess here is that, unless Darvish truly doesn’t want to pitch for Texas, the path to signing won’t be anywhere near as complicated as it was in the Matsuzaka case. Remember, the Daisuke negotiations lasted 29 days before a six-year, $52 million contract was agreed on. (For a recap of the process, click here.) Darvish isn’t currently enjoying the best relationship with Nippon, and he is in the process of going through a divorce. He is also represented by Arn Tellem — not Boras — so impromptu press conferences on the 28th day calling his client “Fort Knox” probably won’t be forthcoming.

Assuming Darvish does agree to terms with the Rangers — who now have a glut of starters with Neftali Feliz moving into the rotation — the first chance the Red Sox have of facing the righty will be during a two-game series at Fenway Park starting on April 17.

But few times Darvish may face the Sox (he couldn’t possibly be any more effective against Boston than the man he replaced, Wilson, who was 4-0 with a 1.08 ERA in his last five starts against the Red Sox), the Japanese standout’s true effect on the American League East race perhaps already embedded itself in the fact he isn’t pitching for the Blue Jays.

With the assumption that Darvish will be a top of the rotation anchor, the prospect of a Blue Jays staff putting him in the middle of Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, a resurgent Dustin McGowan, and even perhaps the developing Kyle Drabek would entrench Toronto in the conversation for winning the American League East. Perhaps Jays’ general manager Alex Anthopolous invests the resources pegged for Darvish elsewhere (Prince Fielder?) but with an already better-than-average offense in place, Darvish would have undoubtedly had the most impact on swing of power in the division.

And for those wondering … No, the Red Sox did not bid on Darvish.

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