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Depth charge: How Red Sox starting depth is shaping up 12.22.11 at 2:04 pm ET
By Alex Speier

Felix Doubront

Most of the curiosity surrounding the Red Sox rotation this offseason has focused on which high-end pitchers the team might pursue (whether trading for someone like Gio Gonzalez, Matt Garza or Gavin Floyd or a free-agent such as Hiroki Kuroda or Roy Oswalt) or the two pitchers (Daniel Bard, Alfredo Aceves) who were key bullpen contributors for the Sox last year but who will be stretched out as starters in spring training.

However, the Sox’ efforts this offseason stretch well beyond just the top five starters whom they will feature, at least on paper, at the start of the season. Teams typically need at least seven or eight quality starters to make it through the shifting fortunes of the season and to withstand injuries and performances that fall short of expectations.

Last year, the Sox used 10 starters. They’re not alone. In the last 10 seasons, the Sox have averaged 10.2 starters per year. Since 2005, about 61 percent of teams in baseball have required 10 or more starters to make it through a year (led by a 2006 Royals team that used a shocking 17 starters in their season).

That being the case, the Sox are looking not just at high-end options (such as the free agent and trade candidates listed above), but also depth options that will give the team some stability when injuries inevitably enter the picture.

As the team continues that undertaking, here is a look at pitchers who are currently viewed as depth options in the organization:

GIVENS — the three starters who are certain (barring injury) to enter the year in the rotation, and require little explanation:

Josh Beckett (13-7, 2.89 ERA, 193 IP)
Jon Lester (15-9, 3.47, 191 2/3 IP)
Clay Buchholz (6-3, 3.48, 82 2/3 IP)

BUBBLE — entering spring training, the pitchers who are currently slated to compete for starting jobs:

Alfredo Aceves (10-2, 2.61, 114 IP in the majors): Aceves made four big league starts and two more in the minors. He has a four-pitch mix that suggests the stuff to be a starter, although he was also a remarkably impactful reliever given his unique ability to work several innings at a time.

Daniel Bard (2-9, 3.33, 73 IP): Bard hasn’t started a game since 2007, but his three-pitch fastball/slider/changeup mix makes him the highest-ceiling Sox pitcher in just about any role in which he pitches. That said, there is a great unknown about managing the sort of innings bump that he’d face.

Felix Doubront (0-0, 6.10, 10 1/3 IP in the majors; 3-5, 3.96, 77 1/3 IP in the minors): 2011 was a disappointing year for Doubront, who is now out of options. He dealt with a series of minor injuries — his elbow in spring training, his groin and hamstring during the season — that interrupted what had been a very promising career arc. When he is healthy, Doubront is a left-hander with three solid average big league pitchers and the build and delivery to be durable. But he wasn’t healthy in 2011 after ending the 2010 season unable to pitch in September due to an upper back injury, and now it remains to be seen what shape his Sox career takes.

He is, in the words of one person in the organization, the biggest wild card for the 2012 team. He could win a rotation job out of spring training. He could be an impact bullpen arm (a role for which he was projected for 2011 after showing promising glimpses of being able to help in that capacity in 2010). He could be traded either this winter (indeed, if the Sox do acquire a starter in a trade, Doubront is among the likeliest players in the organization to be moved, since he’d have value as a potential big league starter but no clear track to the Sox roster). He could be traded in a roster crunch at the end of the spring.

Nothing is certain with the left-hander. But multiple members of the organization have talked with the 24-year-old this offseason about the importance of remaining committed to his offseason conditioning so that he can come into spring training in top shape and give himself the best chance to compete.

Andrew Miller (6-3, 5.54, 65 IP in the majors; 3-3, 2.47, 65 2/3 IP in the minors): Miller is a wild card in the same mold of Doubront. Like Doubront, he’s out of options, and will compete for a job in the Sox rotation in the spring. He would have less trade value than Doubront, in part because there’s been greater inconsistency to his performances in six pro seasons. He shows phenomenal flashes, as with his ability to dominate the Rangers in August. If he can harness that in spring training, he could win a rotation spot or a meaningful bullpen role (ex-Sox manager Terry Francona referred to Miller’s fastball/curveball combination as being like a left-handed version of Bard last spring). If not, he could be a candidate for a late-spring trade.

NON-ROSTER DEPTH OPTIONS

Brandon Duckworth (8-6, 3.97, 118 IP in the minors): Duckworth, who turns 36 in January, recently re-signed on a minor league deal with the Sox. He pitched well enough last year in Triple-A Pawtucket that he was in the conversation as a potential depth option at multiple junctures. However, with Miller and Kyle Weiland (traded to the Astros earlier this month) in the system and pitching very well in the minors at times when the Sox needed to add an arm, Duckworth didn’t get a big league shot. He was then unhealthy down the stretch, unable to start after Aug. 15, thus taking him out of consideration in September when the Sox were desperate for starting depth.

Even so, he is viewed as a veteran whom the Sox would trust in case of injury-induced need.

Alex Wilson (10-4, 3.11, 133 IP in the minors): Wilson, a 2009 second-round pick of the Sox, is expected to impact the Sox at some point this year. There is a likelihood that it will be as a starter, since his mid-90s fastball and swing-and-miss slider point to someone with a late-innings repertoire. At the same time, he’s made significant strides as a starter, showing that he could hold his velocity deeper into games in 2011 than before, and also showing the ability to work down in the zone to get more groundballs and improve his pitch efficiency.

That being the case, multiple Sox officials said that Wilson has reached a point where there would be comfort using him as at least a spot starter, even if relief is his likeliest destination. In that vein, it is worth remembering that Jonathan Papelbon made his debut with three starts in 2005 before shifting — as it turned out, permanently — to the bullpen that season.

UNLIKELY TO BE IN THE PICTURE

–Though both right-hander Stolmy Pimentel and left-hander Drake Britton are on the 40-man roster, both — after struggling in 2011 — are unlikely to see the big leagues in 2012. Instead, both with open the year competing for rotation spots in Double-A Portland. The two hurlers have the stuff to give them high ceilings, but they will need to make significant strides forward to put themselves in position to impact the Sox in 2013.

–Junichi Tazawa made his big league debut as starter in 2009, but in his return from Tommy John surgery last year, he was limited to short stints, primarily out of the bullpen. Nothing has been decided formally about Tazawa’s future, but the power of his stuff in short stints last year was impressive, to the point where it would not be surprising if he became a reliever going forward. The right-hander, who underwent surgery in April 2010, does not face any workload restrictions going forward.

Read More: alex wilson, alfredo aceves, andrew miller, brandon duckworth Print  |  Email  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
  • 770rebbe

    is it me or does the Sox have a paucity of pitching in the minors?

  • Hoppykins83

    Mr. Theo went out of town preaching about building up the Cubs farm system and making it an organization that produces solid prospects every year to contribute in the big leagues. Cubs fans… look at our farm system, in September Theo brought up his best prospect… Wyland

  • BUBBA0308

    NEED TO SIGN KURODA, OSWALT, AND MAHOLM

  • spiritof67

    Did I miss some news on Wake? I know everyone’s written him off, but ironically he didn’t spend one day on the DL last year. If nothing else, he could be useful in the Paul Byrd mode come July-August when half the rotatoion is inevitably banged up.

  • Demarco606

    telling people for years,no clue about pitching talent.theo most overrated executive in sports just ahead of his cousin brian cashman.The cubs owner has the same religion as Theo,i’m shocked he got the job.

  • Relax

    Where have you been Hoppy?  Do you even pay attention to the Sox minor leagues or are you just one of the haters who likes to bash anyone they can?  If you want to see how Theo built the farm system take a good look at the current Red Sox team.  The Sox have developed more home grown talent than other high market team that usually drafts in the lower end of the rounds. 

    And just because Wyland was the guy who got the call doesn’t make him the best prospect.  If you really think that then you just don’t have a clue.  I am not saying they are stacked with pitching in the minors, but they just traded Kelly and most of the better propects were at high A or AA.  Theo did a much better job than Duquette ever did. 

  • Demarco606

    Do you realize Sox, went over slot every year Theo was the GM a huge advantage.Other big market teams didn’t or not nearly as much as the Sox.

  • Demarco606

    Theo inherited Youk,Lester and Hanley Ramirez when he took over.like Felger said a barren farm system.

  • HarryB1964

    Anyone with any brains would write him off. If he was on the disabled list for the last two months, whenFrancona gave him eight starts to win one game, the Sox would have made the playoffs.
    LET THIS GUY GO!!

  • Ricie_19

    Agreed!!!  Thank you Tim but time to set sail!  Is Sonnastine worth taking a look at by the Sox? 

  • Victor Baird

    They need to stop talking and make a couple of significant trades or signings !!!!

  • JohnD

    You hit the nail on the head!

  • Anonymous

    Seems like alot of players out there don’t favor coming to Boston. Gee, they seem to pay pretty good, so what’s the real reasons? Snoozing, while other teams fill there holes. Maybe the new pitching coach will be able to steer the management in the right direction. Sox need about 5 more starters and relief pitchers.

  • Wakefan

    Hey Harry, he pitched well enough in most of  those games to win. Its hard to get a “W” with no run support.

  • Anonymous

    What about all the talk of clubhouse problems, especially among the pitchers?  I would think the Sox should entertain offers for all three of the them.

  • EarlSweatshirt

    Yeah, Felger has a clue about Bogaerts, Barnes, Swihart, Cecchini, Middlebrooks, Ranaudo, Britton, Iglesias, etc.  I doubt Felger has watched one minor league baseball game in the past year.  So your taking his word on the state of the farm system and have the balls to be proud about it?

  • EarlSweatshirt

    Laughable argument with no context.

  • http://www.facebook.com/gloruss Glo Tom

    Idiot RS, losing 2012 already and it has not even started.  Fatty Beckett and crawford not even speaking to their so-called boss.  Go Marlins!

  • Anonymous

    They should blow this team up and retool with young players over the next 3-4 years.   Watching this current group will be painful to say the least.

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/ZVFM2HRNC5CTO2OUXD4XTX65O4 Dennis

     Whatever happened to “can’t miss” Ranaudo?  Doubrount isn’t an answer. Looks like the Sox will have to overpay for Bailey or Madson, if they use Bard and Aceves as starters. 

  • Izzienutz

    Tazawa will be in the BP this year for sure. Before his injury he threw 109 innings with a WHIP of 1.04 at AA and AAA.  In his comeback this year, his SO/9 was 11.2.  The kid has some stuff. He can fill the Aceves role.

  • Barry

    This team is in deep ____ if Bard, Aceves, and the band of minor league pitchers that are listed in this story are going to be relied on.

  • Zeke

    Why has Charlie Haeger, knuckle-ball pitcher on the Paw Sox roster, been completed un-noted?
    He has done well for the SeaDogs, after signing a minor league contract. He did spend time for the Chisox and the Dodgers with limited success.
    He has worked out with Wakefield, an excellent teacher.
    Why not at least give him a chance?  To ignore him would seem to be an insult.

  • anguillaman3

    Usefull….he started the entire 2′nd 1/2…he had one win….were you watching any of the games Wake pitched in ….he sucks.

  • JimDaytona

    Plain and simple, this group of so called starters are not strong enought to help the Sox compete for a wild card. Cherrington is in over his head.

  • Rintintin

    WE NEED roy oswalt, dickhead, leroy ninker, bailey, quentin, and love somebody else. njrkegtrgtrgnktkgtgtrkngrngtrngktrgt Dick Dick Dick Dick

  • DickSullivan

    barrry!

  • KC

    Thus far, Cherrington seems to be nothing more than Theo Jr.  Could be they are in for a long season; but, we’ll see what transpires over the next few weeks.

  • Sparrowhawk75

    OH MY GOD!!! He said the. “D” word!!! If you say it twice more in front of a mirror, HE will appear — he’ll rearrange your furniture, eat your puppy, drain your farm system, throw a dead fish in your baseboard heating, etcetera

  • Anonymous

    The ONLY way Wakefield might be useful is as a 9th inning,bases clean,closer. I f Bard has pitched the 8th, Wakefield may be able to fool 3 batters in the 9th. Beyond that, he is a huge liability to winning. Francona loved Wakefield to the point of leaving Aceves and Hill in Pawtucket untill mid May,in favor of bringing Wakefield north in April. This stupid decision cost the Sox the division. I still don’t want him on the roster for fear that Valentine will use him as a spot starter,where he is awful. But, with Valentine not being so loyal to players,it might be worth a try if all other options fall through.

  • Anonymous

    While agreeing that Cashman is a good  GM, be advised that he has allowed the following players to slip through to other teams. Jon Axford, Tyler Clippard,Aceves, Meloncan, Melky Cabrera,and Ian Kennedy, with only Granderson to show for it.

  • Anonymous

    Ah,just developing prospects doesn’t make Theo a smart GM. Developing good players has a lot of luck involved. Take Justin Masterson, a player who would look great on the staff today. He was traded for V Mart, which would have made sense, if they got right after him and extended his contract. They got a year and 1/2 of quality hitting, and made no effort to retain him. Start by remembering that Youk was signed by Duke. Duke brought Pedro and Manny,two certain HOFers. He also aquired a fine all around player in Johnny Damon, only for Theo to let him go,where he produced nearly identical numbers in 4 years with NY.The list of bad trades and poor signings would require another post.

  • Anonymous

    Right. Failed to mention Hanley,Lester, Anibel Sanchez, Freddy Sanchez, David Eckstein, Shea Hillebrand,and Justin Duschrocher. All of these players were given away by Theo,except Lester. Duke aquired Tek and Lowe. He did make plenty of mistakes in letting Eckstein and Duschrocher  go, but did not have the funds availble that Theo did. He did quite well with what he inherited,which was a mess.

  • Anonymous

    True. Good Point.

  • http://twitter.com/Zj_6 Zack Jones

    The same group that won 90 games last year with crippling injuries on both sides of the ball? shut up.

  • http://twitter.com/LarsChunks LarsChunks

    Deer Alex Spire, Lern to profred.

  • Anonymous

    Cub fans shouldn’t have to sit through another rebuilding process. They should have already signed Fielder.He might not win them a pennant,but would give the fans something to be excited about.

  • Anonymous

    Bill James is killing them.

  • Anonymous

    Sounds like they have to give Doubront a full shot at starter or in relief, since he is out of options. If they can bring quality back in a trade,do it. Andrew Miller is not a wild card,just wild,and not very good. Hopefully, he will not be needed.

  • Anonymous

    They do that in Oakland, every five years, or so.

  • Anonymous

    They don’t need to blowup the team. They need fill holes with quality MLB players,and quit whining about luxury tax.

  • Frank Castle

    Get some depth at TE so we can slide Hernandez out to WR from time to time.

  • Dano S

    Mainly we need another tight end because of Injuries.Pats doing awesome job so far.Additional
    free agents I like William Middleton CB Jaguars,Derek Landri DT Eagles,Aaron Ross CB Giants,
    Phillip Wheeler OLB Colts,Jacob Hester FB SD,William Hayes DE Texans.
    Pats Mock Draft 31.0 1) Melvin Ingram DE S Carolina 1) Mike Adams OT Ohio State
    2) Mark Baron S Alabama 2) Jared Crick DL Nebraska 3)Jonathan Massaquoi DE/LB Troy
    4) Matt Reynolds OL BYU.

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