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Where should Jacoby Ellsbury hit? 02.22.12 at 5:50 pm ET
By Alex Speier

Jacoby Ellsbury (AP)

There are two schools of thought when trying to imagine where Jacoby Ellsbury might fit into the lineup.

As he blossomed into a 30/30 hitter who ranked as one of the most dynamic in the game, Ellsbury’s swing became that of a hitter who typically resides in the middle of the order. The centerfielder led the American League with 83 extra-base hits, a number that suggests that he could have finished the year with more than 105 RBI.

On the other hand, his ability to run and on-base presence suggested that he remained a tremendous fit for the leadoff spot in which Ellsbury has spent most of his career. He has always talked about the top-of-the-order being a hand-in-glove phenomenon. And, as the leadoff hitter, Ellsbury would be certain to see more plate appearances than he would in any other spot in the order.

Certainly, Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine is weighing those elements as he tries to determine how to assemble his lineup for next year. Valentine discussed the factors that will play into his decision on Wednesday.

Someone that has as many extra-base hits as he had last year, if he was going to duplicate that, the only thing we can define is that in 162 games, he would definitely hit 162 times with no one on base if he’s the leadoff hitter. That’s the only thing we can define,” said Valentine. “That has to be considered, if in fact we wanted to give him a chance to have those 162 with someone that he can drive in with an extra-base hit. So I think, if it’s just one player, you say that one player can hit a few different spots in the order for all different reasons.

“(But) I think, there is a thing about hitting in an order that sometimes guys have mental conditions also. I’m pretty sure it was Mike Piazza who came to me and said, ‘I can’t hit fourth.’ I said, ‘Oh, you should have told me before I made the lineup.’ And then he hit fourth for us and he’s going to the Hall of Fame. It’s one of those things.”

For obvious reasons, no spot in the Red Sox lineup stepped to the plate more times with the bases empty than the team’s leadoff hitter. The No. 1 overall hitter in the lineup batted 274 times with runners on base, three fewer than the 277 times that the team’s No. 9 hitter batted with base runners and more than 100 fewer times than the batters in the No. 4 spot (390 times) and No. 3 spot (378) stepped to the plate with runners on base.

But, the Red Sox leadoff hitter stepped to the plate 782 times in 2011, compared to 748 plate appearances for the No. 3 hitter. So, if the Sox decide that Ellsbury is likely to sustain his increased power, they must weigh the value of having him bat more with runners on base (by dropping him in the order) as compared to the number of times they have him step to the plate.

Evidently, the matter is not black and white, not only because there are different arguments regarding where Ellsbury should hit based on his own performance, but also because of similar arguments that can be made about other hitters in the Red Sox lineup. That is why Valentine has said repeatedly that he is focused not on individual hitters but instead on “groupings” as he considers the different ways to construct his lineup.

Where should Jacoby Ellsbury hit?

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  • http://twitter.com/Zj_6 Zack Jones

    Leadoff, no question about it, it’s not often you find someone who offers everything you could want in a leadoff hitter: Power, Speed, Patience, and he wants to hit there. Let Pedroia, Crawford, or Agon hit 3rd

  • Ari

    I think third because he is  hitting 32 hrs and 105 rbis. That is good.

  • BobCavic

    Rickey Henderson hit for power, but was nearly always a lead-off hitter. Sure, Rickey would have gotten more RBI as a #3, but his speed and on-base presence made it imperative that he remained the lead off hitter. That is where Ellsbury belongs, regardless of his power.

  • http://twitter.com/Momster14 Momster

    1 Crawford
    2 Pedey
    3 Ells
    4 Adrian
    5 Youk
    6 Papi
    7 Ross
    8 Salty
    9 Aviles

    I like this.
    CC for leadoff. Let’s try. He will be able to do.
    I know he don’t like to hit for leadoff.
    But It’s huge waste of speed that teams put in CC behind Papi,youk,Adrian.

  • http://twitter.com/Momster14 Momster

    I think that the most problem is Where should CC hit  than Where should Jacoby hit.

  • UKSoxFan

    Ells
    Crawford
    Pedey
    Gonzo
    Youk
    Papi
    Salty
    Cody Ross
    Iglesias

  • Andy

    Ellsbury and Crawford should be well separated in the lineup, and neither of them can steal bases with slow runners in front of them.  Ellsbury will probably have a better OBP than Crawford.  That suggests Ellsbury 1st, Crawford 7th or even 8th.

  • DG

    Yes!  This is what the line-up should look like.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/David-Palozej/100003149722784 David Palozej

    Ross (R handed) 7th with Salty (Lefty/Switch) 8th and Iglesias or Aviles (R handed) 9th…
    keep the R handed hitters separated…but, top 6 looks great!!

  • Jules Toraby

    1. Crawford
    2. Peddie 
    3. Jacoby
    4. Gonzo
    5. Youk
    6. Ortiz
    7. ross
    8. Salty
    9. aviles

    I wonder what batter is less likely to ground into a double play with runners on base. If you 2 on and 1 out, who could you rather be hitting gonzo or ells? Do fast runners on base help break up the double play? Also, with men on base do you want a L/R handed batter? Do baseball players tend to pull the ball? Left handed hitters are already closer to first base. Hitting into the shift? or do you need to have a fast hitter? I’m all for putting peddie in either leadoff or further down in the line up to give it balance. And what about OBP, i was all for JD drew batting leadoff, but that wasn’t popular. Imagine ortiz or youk batting leadoff, or ninth for that matter. Its natural to have the sluggers in the middle of the order, but when their all on base do you really expect aviles or salty to deliver in the clutch? If crawford is uncomfortable at the bottom of the order, let him stay top 2. Some players are affected by battering order more than others. See: peddie as a cleanup hitter.

    Also: if you see 3-4 players at bat in an inning, who do you want leading the following inning. I believe the right 3-5 player set is important, because your building innings. You want people that can take pitches, and people who swing. 

    Jacoby is on base with one out, who do you want to hit behind him, a lefty power hitter? defensive shift? or a right hander with speed? if he’s on first, would they employ the shift on papi leaving 3rd base open for him to do a double steal? If ells is on 3rd, do you want a left or righty hitting? *(not that he’s going to steal home, unless its lefty) Also need to consider who they might intentionally walk depending on how you structure the order. 

    Additionally, you have to think if it is a righty or lefty pitcher, and how that affects the batter. Do righties on righties pull more to left? hit it towards the shortstop? would of lefty pitching to a righty hit the other way more? dribble it to 1st or short?and consider where the pitchers back is turned to the base runners. A lefty pitching, its harder to steal second, but easier to steal 3rd or home.

    If i was manager I would do:

    1. Crawford
    2. Youk
    3. Gonzo
    4. Ellsbury
    5. Peddie
    6. Ortiz
    7. ross/sweeny
    8. salty
    9. aviles

    Worst comes to worst, and you go 3 and out, you have ells starting off the 2nd with the bases empty and he can still steal. or you have 2 on- 2 out with peddie coming up, or loaded 2 out with ortiz. 

    Game is on the line.. who do you want to hit with bases empty? and who do you want to hit with runners on? also, relief pitcher comes in, which three batter could make him throw 20 pitches. 

    runner on first, who could score on a double by ortiz? not youk, not adrian, 

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/ZVFM2HRNC5CTO2OUXD4XTX65O4 Dennis

      I agree with Momster, but I’d flip Crawford and Ellsbury.

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