| Where should Jacoby Ellsbury hit? | 02.22.12 at 5:50 pm ET |
There are two schools of thought when trying to imagine where Jacoby Ellsbury might fit into the lineup.
As he blossomed into a 30/30 hitter who ranked as one of the most dynamic in the game, Ellsbury’s swing became that of a hitter who typically resides in the middle of the order. The centerfielder led the American League with 83 extra-base hits, a number that suggests that he could have finished the year with more than 105 RBI.
On the other hand, his ability to run and on-base presence suggested that he remained a tremendous fit for the leadoff spot in which Ellsbury has spent most of his career. He has always talked about the top-of-the-order being a hand-in-glove phenomenon. And, as the leadoff hitter, Ellsbury would be certain to see more plate appearances than he would in any other spot in the order.
Certainly, Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine is weighing those elements as he tries to determine how to assemble his lineup for next year. Valentine discussed the factors that will play into his decision on Wednesday.
Someone that has as many extra-base hits as he had last year, if he was going to duplicate that, the only thing we can define is that in 162 games, he would definitely hit 162 times with no one on base if he’s the leadoff hitter. That’s the only thing we can define,” said Valentine. “That has to be considered, if in fact we wanted to give him a chance to have those 162 with someone that he can drive in with an extra-base hit. So I think, if it’s just one player, you say that one player can hit a few different spots in the order for all different reasons.
“(But) I think, there is a thing about hitting in an order that sometimes guys have mental conditions also. I’m pretty sure it was Mike Piazza who came to me and said, ‘I can’t hit fourth.’ I said, ‘Oh, you should have told me before I made the lineup.’ And then he hit fourth for us and he’s going to the Hall of Fame. It’s one of those things.”
For obvious reasons, no spot in the Red Sox lineup stepped to the plate more times with the bases empty than the team’s leadoff hitter. The No. 1 overall hitter in the lineup batted 274 times with runners on base, three fewer than the 277 times that the team’s No. 9 hitter batted with base runners and more than 100 fewer times than the batters in the No. 4 spot (390 times) and No. 3 spot (378) stepped to the plate with runners on base.
But, the Red Sox leadoff hitter stepped to the plate 782 times in 2011, compared to 748 plate appearances for the No. 3 hitter. So, if the Sox decide that Ellsbury is likely to sustain his increased power, they must weigh the value of having him bat more with runners on base (by dropping him in the order) as compared to the number of times they have him step to the plate.
Evidently, the matter is not black and white, not only because there are different arguments regarding where Ellsbury should hit based on his own performance, but also because of similar arguments that can be made about other hitters in the Red Sox lineup. That is why Valentine has said repeatedly that he is focused not on individual hitters but instead on “groupings” as he considers the different ways to construct his lineup.
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