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Nuggetpalooza: The Red Sox and ‘hyper-clutch’ situations do not mix 08.17.12 at 2:04 pm ET
By Gary Marbry

If you are following me on Twitter (@nuggetpalooza), you would have seen this nugget during Wednesday night’s loss to the Orioles:

Pedroia ends the 7th with a runner in scoring position (with the Red Sox) down 5-3. The Red Sox are 1-for-26 since April 6 with RISP/two outs in the 7th inning or later when trailing by one or two runs.

That’s my definition of a “hyper-clutch” situation. Two outs, late in the game, your team is losing, and you are, at worst, the tying run. There are no “productive outs” in this situation. Execute, or you are probably going to lose the game.

On Opening Day in Detroit, Ryan Sweeney stepped to the plate with two outs in the 9th inning, Darnell McDonald on second base, the Red Sox trailing, 2-1, and the Tigers’ Jose Valverde on the mound, who was a perfect 49-for-49 in save opportunities in 2011. Sweeney raked a triple into the corner to tie the game (only temporarily as it turned out).

Since Sweeney’s hit, Boston hitters are 1-for-26 in those hyper-clutch situations and 0-for-17 since Dustin Pedroia singled against the Rays on May 26 (the Red Sox trailed 2-1 in that one, too, but Kelly Shoppach did not score on Pedroia’s hit). Surprisingly, the Red Sox have not been the worst team in the majors in those situations this season, thanks to the Angels (through Wednesday):

.000 – Angels (0-for-20)
.074 – Red Sox (2-for-27)
.083 – Rockies (2-for-24)
.087 – Blue Jays (2-for-23)

But how great must it feel to be a fan of the teams that are getting the big hits this season?:

.308 – Nationals (12-for-39)
.297 – Cardinals (11-for-37)
.286 – Orioles (8-for-28)
.273 – Royals (12-for-44)

Want to know how to win your division? Look no further than last year’s Brewers, who went 12-for-25 (.480) in hyper-clutch situations last season, the highest team average since at least 2002 in those situations. Here are the Red Sox averages each season since 2002:

2011 – .275
2010 – .178
2009 – .419
2008 – .150
2007 – .157
2006 – .389
2005 – .300
2004 – .207
2003 – .222
2002 – .238

In these hyper-clutch situations, batting average “works” because it’s HITS that get the job done. Drawing walks is all well and good, but in most cases when the situation is hyper-clutch, a walk just passes the burden on to the on-deck batter.

Sweeney’s big triple on April 5 made him 3-for-12 in his career in such situations at the time (he has since struck out in his one subsequent chance at hyper-clutch glory). Three players have collected three hyper-clutch hits this season: Russell Martin of the Yankees, Yadier Molina of the Cardinals, and Norichika Aoki of the Brewers. Since the start of the 2002 season, now-Marlin Carlos Lee has come to bat 64 times in such situations, hit .259,  and homered five times, the most by any single player in that span of 10 3/4 seasons. But the best hyper-clutch hitter in that span has been White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski, who has a career .400 hyper-clutch average and 16 RBI in those spots. Here are the batting average leaders in such situations since the start of 2002 (active players only; min. 20 such AB):

.407 – AJ Pierzynski
.400 – Michael Bourn
.364 – Paul Konerko
.360 – Wilson Betemit
.357 – Chase Utley

And now the trailers (same minimums):

.040 – David DeJesus (1-for-25)
.043 – Jayson Werth (1-for-23)
.053 – Adam Dunn (2-for-38)
.080 – Eric Chavez (2-for-25)

Other players of interest:

Jacoby Ellsbury – 6-for-11 (.545); 1.252 OPS
David Ortiz – 11-for-36 (.306); 21 RBI is tied for 2nd most
Dustin Pedroia – 3-for-22 (.136); All singles
Adrian Gonzalez – 3-for-22 (.136); All singles
Cody Ross – 1-for-15; 7 strikeouts
Kevin Youkilis – 4-for-21 (.190)
JD Drew – 3-for-22 (.136); 10 strikeouts
Derek Jeter – 12-for-37; 4 HR and 25 total bases

Finally, a few words about David Freese – He of perhaps the biggest hyper-clutch hit of them all, a two-run, game-tying, triple with two outs in the 9th inning in the sixth game of last year’s World Series, is 5-for-11 in those spots in his regular season career. Hey did y’all know that if you narrow the definition of hyper-clutch even further, to just the 9th inning or later, that there have only been six such hits in the sixth or seventh game of a World Series ever? And the Cardinals collected two of those six hits in Game Six last year (Freese in the 9th and Berkman in the 10th).

Have a great weekend!

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  • Paul

    great stat

  • Jaime29

    Pretty much sums up the Sox season. Walk offs and coming from behind late have just not happened this year. If they’re down late, it’s hopeless. See yesterday’s game with the Yankees as an example. 

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