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Red Sox offseason gains definition with likely multi-year deal with David Ortiz, deadline for qualifying offers 11.02.12 at 6:58 pm ET
By Alex Speier

The Red Sox made a one-year, $13.3 million qualifying offer to David Ortiz on Friday. (AP)

The murky picture of the offseason just gained a measure of definition.

The deadline for teams to extend one-year qualifying offers to their free agents came and went at 5 p.m. on Friday. The qualifying offer, which represents the average of the top 125 salaries in baseball (approximately $13.3 million), assures that should a free agent leave a team to sign with another club, his original club will receive a draft pick in the supplemental first-round as compensation. The club that signs a free agent who received a qualifying offer, by contrast, must forfeit its top draft pick outside of the top 10 picks in the draft (which are protected).

UPDATE: David Ortiz and the Sox have agreed to a two-year, $26 million deal with incentives that could push the value of the deal up to $30 million after receiving a qualifying offer from the Red Sox.)

More significant was what happened to a number of other free agents who are on the market.

Some players represented no-brainers to receive qualifying offers. Those included outfielder Josh Hamilton of the Rangers and Rafael Soriano of the Yankees, the former of whom will certainly receive an offer that exceeds the one-year, $13.3 million construct in both length and years, the latter of whom just opted out of whom just opted out of a contract that would have paid him a guaranteed $14 million in 2013. Some prominent free agents, meanwhile, were ineligible to receive qualifying offers because they changed teams mid-year (Anibel Sanchez of the Tigers, Zack Greinke of the Angels and Ryan Dempster of the Rangers all fell into this category).

However, several free agents who could address areas of need for the Sox were not necessarily locks to receive offers, given the uncertainty about whether or not a team would be willing to risk having the player accept the qualifying offer and thus come back on a one-year deal with a costly salary.

Here is a brief look at the players who received qualifying offers, and some who did not, and how that could impact the Sox’ offseason. One note: Because the Sox have the No. 7 overall pick in the 2013 draft, their first-round selection (as one of the top 10 picks) is protected. For them, signing a free agent who receives a qualifying offer would cost them a second-round pick rather than a first-rounder — a significant consideration that will give the Sox greater comfort about signing a free agent who receives a qualifying offer than if the team had to give up its first-round pick.

RECEIVED QUALIFYING OFFERS

Michael Bourn: Bourn, who turns 30 in December, is an excellent defensive center fielder who gets on base at a respectable clip (.348 OBP since 2009), impacts the game on the bases (average of 51 steals over the last five years) and typically stays on the field. Still, given the paucity of center fielders on the market, he’s likely to receive a deal that might run counter to the tenets of discipline that Sox GM Ben Cherington has preached. So, the fact that he received a qualifying offer is neither a terribly surprising nor a terribly impactful one for the Sox.

Josh Hamilton: Though the premier position player on the market, the Sox are unlikely to get involved in the Hamilton sweepstakes given concerns about his age, injury history and past issues with addiction.

Hiroki Kuroda: If there’s one move on which the Red Sox might most want a do-over from last offseason, it was likely the inability to sign Kuroda while letting him go to the Yankees. The team has long been bullish on the right-hander, having made him the club’s primary target at the 2011 trade deadline. However, in this case, the qualifying offer is likely irrelevant, since there seems an excellent likelihood that he’ll return to New York on a one-year deal. He has shown a preference to go year-to-year with his contracts in Major League Baseball, and he was outstanding with the Yankees in 2012, going 16-11 with a 3.32 ERA in 219 2/3 innings.

Adam LaRoche: The Nationals first baseman is coming off a huge year in which he hit .271/.343/.510/.853 with 33 homers and won a Gold Glove. In 2012, he had the most productive season of any corner infielder in his walk year, showing power and solid plate discipline while working pitch counts (he averaged 4.03 pitches per plate appearance). He’d address a number of deficiencies for the Sox, though the soon-to-be 33-year-old — who declined his side of a $10 million mutual option — will come at considerable cost, and now, he’d also require a pick.

Kyle Lohse: Lohse is coming off of two very good years in St. Louis, having gone 30-11 with a 3.11 ERA over the last two years in St. Louis. Still, he’s a pitch-to-contact guy who turned 34 last month. With the Sox trying to skew younger in their rotation, a long-term deal would represent the wrong sort of risk for them to take with him, thus meaning that the Cardinals’ decision to make him a qualifying offer likely has little effect.

Rafael Soriano: Again, little impact on the Sox. GM Ben Cherington noted on the Red Sox Hot Stove Show on Thursday that the team feels its bullpen is a strength; the Sox are typically leery of long-term, big-money deals for relievers given concerns about performance volatility and the fact that such investments are typically inefficient given how few innings closers work.

Nick Swisher: Swisher, who turns 32 this month, could address Sox needs either at first or a corner outfield spot, he’s demonstrated an ability to perform well while playing in a big market, and his ability to work deep counts and elicit plenty of walks plays into an area of 2012 deficiency for the Sox. Though he had a poor postseason (5-for-30), he hit .272/.364/.473/.837 with 24 homers during the regular season, numbers that compare favorably to those posted by Cody Ross, and that were in line with his career averages (.256/.361/.467/.828). Given their needs, he seems almost certain to be a player of interest to the Sox this winter, though again, the idea of giving up a pick for a player whose prime years are likely behind him represents a suboptimal outcome.

B.J. Upton: The Sox need at least one, more likely two and possibly as many as three outfielders this offseason, depending on whether they decide to trade or keep Jacoby Ellsbury and whether they think Ryan Kalish can be an everyday big leaguer at the start of 2013 after two years that were lost to injuries. Upton represents a player who combines power, speed and above-average defense, and he’s also young (he turned 28 near the end of the season). In many respects, his numbers over the last five years compare closely with those of Ellsbury. He’d require a long-term deal and the sacrifice of a pick, and he’s long been viewed as an underachiever based on his incredible five-tool potential, but he’s still been a valuable player, and unlike Bourn, he could offer value as a corner outfielder as well.

NOTABLES WHO DID NOT RECEIVE QUALIFYING OFFERS (CLARIFICATION: THIS IS ONLY A LIST OF PLAYERS WHO WERE CONSIDERED POSSIBILITIES TO RECEIVE QUALIFYING OFFERS; THE SOX WILL HAVE INTEREST IN ADDITIONAL FREE AGENTS WHO WERE NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE QUALIFYING OFFERS)

Torii Hunter: The 37-year-old has remained productive into his late-30s. While the Angels likely viewed him as a potential overpay candidate at a one-year, $13.3 million deal, his track record is one of impressive consistency. The 2012 season marked the sixth time in the last seven years that he’s posted an .800-plus OPS, and while part of that reflected a high batting average on balls in play, the fact that he’ll be on the market, can be signed without giving up a pick and likely in line for a deal of no more than a couple of years might make him an appealing target as a potential “bridge” (ah, that word) to some of the team’s outfield prospects such as Kalish, Bryce Brentz and Jackie Bradley Jr.

Edwin Jackson: Jackson is young for a free agent (he turned 29 in September) and has been durable, with six straight seasons of 30-plus starts and five straight of at least 180 innings. The Sox were interested in him on a one-year deal last winter (when he did not cost a draft pick), but at a time when they had limited financial flexibility, they were out-bid for him by the Nationals, for whom he was 10-11 with a 4.03 ERA (roughly in line with league average). As a younger pitcher, he did prove a solid member of the Rays rotation in 2008, and he shows swing-and-miss stuff (8.0 strikeouts per nine innings in 2012). His inclusion on this list is a surprise — multiple major league sources expected him to receive a qualifying offer. He didn’t, which makes him even more appealing.

Russell Martin: The 29-year-old catcher hit for power (21 homers) but otherwise struggled (.211 average, .311 OBP, .713 OPS) in 2012 with the Yankees. He seems an unlikely match for the Sox, but his availability without a draft pick has implications for the Napoli market and, potentially, for the trade value of the Sox’ stock of catchers.

Mike Napoli had a career-low .227 average in 2012, unfortunate timing for a player coming off of a monster 2011 campaign (.320/.414/.631/1.046, 30 homers). Still, he draws a ton of walks, resulting in a solid .343 OBP, and with 24 homers, he still ended the year with a .469 slugging mark and .812 OPS. He would give the Sox a needed power-hitting presence and a player who delivers grinding at-bats. The team could use him as a first baseman or have him work with either Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Ryan Lavarnway as a catcher/first baseman. He’s not considered defensively elite, though its worth noting that in 2011, he led the AL in catchers’ ERA. Because of his 2012 struggles, he might also be open to a short-term deal in a favorable ballpark — likely part of the reason why the Rangers didn’t extend a qualifying offer to him. As a career .306/.397/.710/1.107 hitter with seven homers in 19 games at Fenway, he could be a good fit for the Sox lineup — particularly now that the team wouldn’t have to give up a draft pick to get him.

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  • Anonymous

     Napoli is the only one here that makes any sense…trade salty have lavarnway and napoli platoon C and 1B or keep Salty and have 3 of them do a round robin.  Napoli on a 2 yr deal for 15mill sounds good to me and would make him happy and not underpaid which would pay off with is play on the field.

  • Kjd0719

    Zach greinke was traded from the brewers to the angels mid season. This is the second article today I’ve read from this site that has no clue on how to check their facts. What a joke

  • http://profiles.yahoo.com/u/ZVFM2HRNC5CTO2OUXD4XTX65O4 Dennis

     Swisher or Ross?  Their stats are nearly identical and it looks like Swisher will cost twice the $$$$. This decision should be an easy one for the Sox.  

  • Elaine_Apthorp

    When I think “Adam LaRoche” I am transported back down the wistful spirals of time to his tantalizingly brief stint with the Sox, which reminds me of other short stints that hurt to think about.

    Can we say A D R I A N  B E L T R E, for example? 

    Hubris is what reaps the whirlwind, I guess. Theo and his mates in the Sox front office, having made many smart and effective moves over the years by picking up marginal youngsters with high ceilings and great players coming off lousy seasons, were on a mission to snag that big bat to replace Manny Being Manny, but looked for it not in the outfield (where we had brave journeymen in left and an aging herniated JD Drew in right) but at first base–where we had all-star hitter and Gold Glove defender Kevin Youkilis. Frustrated when their first target, MarkTexeira, went to the Yankees, the Sox turned to Plan B–which was not, “hey, we were so smart to snag Adrian Beltre after a down year and we totally hit the jackpot! Let’s sign him to a long-term deal!” but Let’s Get Gonzalez. Adrian Gonzalez, despite shoulder trouble in 2010, was a legitimately great player. But because (1) he came in trade and (2) he’s a first baseman, he cost the Sox a lot more before he even arrived than he could deliver when he got here. For not only did we have to ship off the top three players in our farm system (a reasonable gamble to take, though we sure could use RHP Casey Kelley right about now, couldn’t we, and OF Anthony Rizzo too?), but also we had to let go of Adrian Beltre (who was a huge powerhouse hitter–and fielder–for the Sox in 2010, but who became expendable when the acquisition of Gonzalez bumped Kevin Youkilis from first base to third) and destroy Kevin Youkilis (who, durable at first, moved back across the diamond to the physically demanding hot corner, where he was soon injured, injured again, and declining steeply in production). Now we have no Kelley, no Rizzo, no Beltre, no Youk, and no Gonzalez either. And wouldn’t ya know it, here we are . . . looking for a big bat, good young pitching, an outfielder, AND a first baseman.

    And, just for fun, here’s Adam LaRoche back in the hopper (albeit probably not for long)–potentially available, but at a hugely bigger price than he would have cost had we simply kept him when we had him.
     
    If all that ain’t a tale of woe in front office regret, I don’t know what is.

  • http://twitter.com/Zj_6 Zack Jones

    ALWAYS SAY YES TO RIGHT HANDED POWER IN FENWAY

  • http://twitter.com/Zj_6 Zack Jones

    wait………Zack Greinke of the……Royals?

  • Brian

     I just don’t see Napoli, at 1B he’s league average at best, and I don’t want him as a backup/part time catcher with Lavarnway.  Alex just wrote an article on defense and run prevention, and catcher defense (especially pitch framing) plays a huge role in this.  Look, Varitek was overrated in this aspect of the game, but Salty and Lavarnway are a big part of the pitching struggles, and Napoli might be worse than both guys (if it’s possible to be worse than Lavarnway).  The Rays are way ahead of the curve on this, their catchers are great framers and it’s the reason their guys outperform their peripherals.

  • Brian

     Nice revisionist history.

    For one, I actually wanted Beltre back, but the overwhelming narrative of Red Sox fans and media was he was just a contract year guy and shouldn’t be re-signed. 

    Next, the Adrian Gonzalez trade was still worth it.  Sorry, but I would rather not have Casey #4 starter Kelly and Anthony Rizzo than have to pay Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett all that money.  Without that trade the Red Sox would be stuck with a terrible aging core of overpaid players and there is obviously no way the Dodgers would’ve dealt Webster (who is arguably better than Kelly), De La Rosa, and Sands for Beckett, Crawford, Kelly, and Rizzo.  Red Sox fans keep talking about AGon like the Padres trade didn’t work out, but I might take De La Rosa and Webster over Kelly and Rizzo, and when you add in the 100+m you freed from dead weight it’s a no brainer.

    Third, Adam Laroche was the definition of a part time 1b, which has very little value.  He had a career year at 32, good for him.  It was flukey as anything and no one in the league valued him that much coming into the season.  Pure revisionist history with ignorant narratives.  I’m sure if Beckett has a good year next season people will complain that we “dumped” him, you people have no shame.

  • Stewie

     All valid points!

  • Michael

    Elaine, you can’t go on this long spiel without recognizing that when Beltre was let go, the Red Sox got two draft picks that they used on Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Blake Swihart. 2011 was an epic draft class, and the front office did well to get four picks before the second round (Barnes and Owens were the parting gifts of V-Mart). You also fail to mention, concerning Gonzalez, that the losses of Kelly and Rizzo have been mitigated by the gains of Webster and De La Rosa. A good portion of the value you lament losing has in fact been recuperated, which hopefully will become evident in the next few years.

  • Spinkat

    I haven’t trusted in BB for about four years. Now I actually dislike him and am totally fed up with his arrogance. A few years ago, you couldn’t imagine a better coach in the league. Now there are a dozen of them.

  • Spinkat

    The ONLY reason they failed in the postseason is because the Pats’ “braintrust” has failed to rebuild the defense where they were dominant when they were winning super bowls. NOTHING to do with the offense which has been near the top, or at the top, statistically for years. Their defense has been pulling up the years for years. Pull your blinders off and smell the roses. Brady is now 36, in the twilight of his career. You expect him to overnight develop a repoire with a receiver like he did with Welker? Not going to happen. You can continue to believe…I’m under no illusions anymore. I see other teams moving way ahead while the Pats continue to decline.

  • Marlenereid

    speak for yourself

  • Boston_Sports

    The Patriots need a receiver to stretch the field and then defense, defense, defense.

  • Marlenereid

    why would you wish that on any player.

  • Stick

    Don’t remember anything more than two dropped balls by welker when it counted the most. Good riddance prima donna, no more Dolphin rehabbing okay bb?

  • whitey

    Disabled List???  As the great Cris Carter once said, “COME ON MAN”!!

  • whitey

    I’m not so sure Welker is a better overall player than Amendola…Let’s give this kid a few seasons, then make that assesment…Amendola looks a heck of a lot like Welker did when the Pats traded for him, except Amendola is bigger and faster.  Anyone with half a clue knows that -60-70% of Welkers stats were due to having Brady throw him the ball.  Now I’m not saying that Welker is a slouch, but simply put, he was replaceable, and the Pats knew it..Again, if this kid stays healthy, I think we have another possibly great slot receiver on our hands!!  Let’s get some freaking defensive studs know coach!!!   The team needs to sign at least one solid corner and safety free agent, plus bring back Talib, or another corner, as Dennards situation is unknown…

  • Rightallthetime

    I love the idiots here who only think a guy can be good if he was good elsewhere and they should be paid 10M a year. IDIOTS, you can’t build a roster worth a darn like that. Hopefully this guy will excel here LIKE WELKER, who was no-name chump in Miami !!!! And we gave up 2 draft picks for, which at the time seemed RIDICULOUS !!

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