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Game-changer: Reported Blue Jays-Marlins blockbuster shakes up AL East 11.13.12 at 9:51 pm ET
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Right-hander Josh Johnson is among the players reportedly heading to Toronto from the Marlins. (AP)

The American League East suddenly looks like a drastically different place.

The Blue Jays and Marlins rocked the baseball industry on Tuesday night as reports emerged of a blockbuster that will send shortstop Jose Reyes, starting pitchers Josh Johnson and Mark Buehrle, second baseman Emilio Bonifacio and catcher John Buck to Toronto.

In exchange, Miami will receive:

– Outfielder Jake Marisnick (a potential five-tool center fielder who ranked as the second-best Blue Jays prospect after finishing 2012 in Double-A);

– Left-hander Justin Nicolino (a potential mid-rotation starter who spent all of 2012 in Single-A with excellent strikeout-to-walk numbers);

– Right-hander Anthony DeSclafani (another pitcher who put up solid numbers in Single-A);

– Shortstop Yunel Escobar (a talented but enigmatic player who drifted into considerable public scrutiny when he wrote a homophobic slur in Spanish on his eye black);

– Infielder Adeiny Hechavarria (in the eyes of some, a variation on Jose Iglesias, with slightly better — though still limited — offensive tools and a good but not Iglesias-level glove);

– Right-hander Henderson Alvarez (who spent an unimpressive year in the Toronto rotation throwing hard but featuring no real above-average pitches);

– And a solid defensive catcher without any offensive ability in Jeff Mathis.

For the Sox, the primary impact of the trade comes in the form of a division that now appears even more formidable than the one that just steamrolled Boston en route to a 69-93 record in 2012. The idea of a Jays lineup featuring an elite leadoff man in Reyes followed by the likes of third baseman Brett Lawrie, former 50-homer hitter Jose Bautista (if he recovers fully from wrist surgery) and former 40-homer man Edwin Encarnacion is imposing.

Meanwhile, the Jays will feature a rotation with tremendous potential albeit few guarantees. In a best-case scenario for Toronto, the team can get a bounceback to All-Star form from left-hander Ricky Romero (who went from a 2.92 ERA in 2011 to a 5.77 mark in 2012, then required an elbow clean-up after the year), strong contributions from 29-year-old Johnson (who has the ceiling of a top-of-the-rotation starter but with little performance certainty after going 2-8 with a 4.94 ERA on the road in 2012, compared to marks of 6-6 and 2.96 at home) and Buehrle (12 straight years of 200+ innings, with nine years in that span of sub-4.00 ERAs), good health from right-hander Brandon Morrow (10-7 with a 2.96 ERA in 21 starts in 2012) and a passable contribution from left-hander J.A. Happ (10-11, 4.79 ERA, 144 strikeouts in 144 2/3 innings in 2012 between the Astros and Jays) at the back of the rotation, the team could have a rotation that could rival anyone’s. Of course, if Romero resembles his 2012 form, and Johnson looks like the pitcher who was beaten up on the road, and Buehrle’s billion innings of work catch up to him (and the AL East proves inhospitable to the guile that has permitted him to live with a mid-80s fastball), and Morrow fails to prove that he can sustain health and dominant stuff for a full season, and Happ continues to struggle with command issues . . .

The best- and worst-case scenarios are, of course, extreme for Toronto with this deal. Still, the idea of the Blue Jays on paper is an impressive one. Indeed, a case can be made that the Jays now have the fewest holes of any team in the AL East, with a chance (again, largely depending on Toronto’s health) to compete toe-to-toe with virtually anyone in the division:

In isolation, the players who went from Miami to Toronto wouldn’t necessarily have carried tremendous appeal to the Sox. Reyes is still owed $96 million over the next five years; though an All-Star caliber player in his prime, there’s plenty of risk to such a long-term deal for a player who has dealt with a number of injuries (though none in 2012, when he played a career-high 160 games). The Sox weren’t terribly interested in the idea of trading for Johnson, given that his uneven 2012 performance came with a number of question marks and he’s just one year away from free agency (something that is unappealing for the Sox in a trade candidate, given the team’s uncertain ability to contend in 2013). Buehrle is owed $48 million over the next three years; it’s fair to ask whether, after a career in the AL Central and NL East, his stuff can hold up in the AL East.

Still, the collective impact on the Jays should represent a considerable upgrade at a number of positions. If that comes in concert with strong performances by the returning Toronto players, then there could be a new contender in the AL East.

What will this actually mean for 2013? It’s waaaay too early to say. But clearly, the offseason of 2012-13 is off to a fairly wild start, with emerging evidence that more shocks are in store.

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  • Fraggles

    With the marlins giving money to jays…. Can the commissioner nix the deal and send a message to the Marlins? More importantly….. Loria??

  • Kingkelly

    Thanks for the prompt, clear report and juicy details on this megadeal, Alex.   The Jays’ trade seems just short of historic.   Now if the Rays open a period saloon outside the Trop, and the Red Sox hire a limping deputy for their second Pitching Coach, the new AL East will have become the old Wild West.   Maybe Dr. Steinberg can catch the zeitgeist and round up some Conestoga Wagons to replace the equipment truck on the run to Ft Myers.   
    I can’t help wondering if the Blue Jays owner and GM got stirred up by our grab for John Farrell –just two seasons after JF began managing there, one of them ruined by injuries.  The owner spoke gamely about the trade for Aviles and wishing Farrell well, and his words sounded fairly accepting.  But I got a sense of vaguely pressured speech, an urge to keep talking about and around the event, like a man who had been stung deeply but wasn’t saying so directly.   After all, Mr. Henry was crestfallen when Theo left a year early for a promotion (to Larry Lu’s title) with the Cubs, after nine years and two World Series titles. The Farrell hire was something else. 
    There is little doubt that luring Farrell away from the Jays — so soon and for a lateral move, after an even earlier press for him had failed  — carries an implicit message.  It is a silent but wicked one that devalues the Toronto franchise.   It is roughly this:  “The Red Sox matter.   We regret the timing and inconvenience, but we have championships to win.”  The implied flipside of this message is even more brutal.  “There is less urgency for YOUR club:  the Jays have been treading water for 20 years.  The very stud we want and trust to be the next great Red Sox manager couldn’t get any sustained uptick from your program.” For his part, JF thanked the Jays for giving him the opportunity to get valuable experience.   Then he gushed about his delight at returning to Boston, which he said “always seemed to be the epicenter of baseball.”   It was music to our ears, not so for the Jays.   [After all, Toronto is cast as what?  Sgt. Preston’s “Mush You Huskies” Managers Instructional Camp -- in the Yukon boonies of baseball?]   A hint of entitlement in this grab, don’t you think?   And no clue that Canadians over the years have felt a deep cultural resentment at being treated like the slow witted country cousins in a large American family.             
    Whatever stirred them initially, this was a drastic move – especially considering how precious top prospects are now under the new CBA rules.   No more draft picks back for late summer rentals; no retargeting of bonus money if a team fails to sign one of its own; not much chance to catch up by overspending internationally on bonuses for young Asian or Latin players.   The Jays shook their big league tree and defoliated the farm.    You did a great job bracketing the possible outcomes for the Jays, Alex, and, by way of trickle down, for the AL East.  The Red Sox were wise to avoid taking on this much payroll, age and injury risk.  The Sox must stay on a cautious and patient path, one that aims for a higher and more sustained plateau of 4-6 years in which we are a favorite to go deep into the playoffs.  We could get lucky sooner; or we could have another year in which we score an elite draft pick, as our young players move up the minors, improving in leaps and bounds.  For now, anyway, we won’t have the idea of Josh Johnson to kick around anymore.      

    • Doug

      Exceedingly well written post, thanks.

  • Kingkelly

    Thanks for the prompt, clear report and juicy details on this megadeal, Alex.   The Jays’ trade seems just short of historic.   Now if the Rays open a period saloon outside the Trop, and the Red Sox hire a limping deputy for their second Pitching Coach, the new AL East will have become the old Wild West.   Maybe Dr. Steinberg can catch the zeitgeist and round up some Conestoga Wagons to replace the equipment truck on the run to Ft Myers.   
    I can’t help wondering if the Blue Jays owner and GM got stirred up by our grab for John Farrell –just two seasons after JF began managing there, one of them ruined by injuries.  The owner spoke gamely about the trade for Aviles and wishing Farrell well, and his words sounded fairly accepting.  But I got a sense of vaguely pressured speech, an urge to keep talking about and around the event, like a man who had been stung deeply but wasn’t saying so directly.   After all, Mr. Henry was crestfallen when Theo left a year early for a promotion (to Larry Lu’s title) with the Cubs, after nine years and two World Series titles. The Farrell hire was something else. 
    There is little doubt that luring Farrell away from the Jays — so soon and for a lateral move, after an even earlier press for him had failed  — carries an implicit message.  It is a silent but wicked one that devalues the Toronto franchise.   It is roughly this:  “The Red Sox matter.   We regret the timing and inconvenience, but we have championships to win.”  The implied flipside of this message is even more brutal.  “There is less urgency for YOUR club:  the Jays have been treading water for 20 years.  The very stud we want and trust to be the next great Red Sox manager couldn’t get any sustained uptick from your program.” For his part, JF was gracious in thanking the Jays’ owner and front office for giving him the opportunity to get valuable experience.   Then he gushed about his delight at returning to Boston, which he said “always seemed to be the epicenter of baseball.”   It was music to our ears, not so for the Jays.   [After all, Toronto is cast as what?  Sgt. Preston’s “Mush You Huskies” Managers Instructional Camp -- in the Yukon boonies of baseball?]   A hint of entitlement in this grab, don’t you think?   And no clue that Canadians over the years have felt a deep cultural resentment at being treated like the slow witted country cousins in a large American family.             
    Whatever stirred them initially, this was a drastic move – especially considering how precious top prospects are now under the new CBA rules.   No more draft picks back for late summer rentals; no retargeting of bonus money if a team fails to sign one of its own; not much chance to catch up by overspending internationally on bonuses for young Asian or Latin players.   The Jays shook their big league tree and defoliated the farm.    You did a great job bracketing the possible outcomes for the Jays, Alex, and, by way of trickle down, for the AL East.  The Red Sox were wise to avoid taking on this much payroll, age and injury risk.  The Sox must stay on a cautious and patient path, one that aims for a higher and more sustained plateau of 4-6 years in which we are a favorite to go deep into the playoffs.  We could get lucky sooner; or we could have another year in which we score an elite draft pick, as our young players move up the minors, improving in leaps and bounds.  For now, anyway, we won’t have the idea of Josh Johnson to kick around anymore.      

  • Zippy

    The Jays will always suck. 

    • Nkahn89

       they already have 2 rings so they haven always sucked. last year they were right in the fold before there whole team got injured. now with a healthy team and this great trade they will win the east

      • Perspective

         Disagree. This isn’t as great a deal as it appears. The Marlins were awful with the same players. Johnson was atrocious on the road and is a free agent after ’13, Buerle will get eaten alive in the AL east, Reyes is prone to injury and has many years left on that contract. Giving up the farm for these guys was a stupid move.

        • Idiot Finder

          you’re an idiot. the jays did not give up the farm. you are one dumb tool, same with the rest of the fools saying the jays parlayed their farm. clearly, you are not paying any attention to the team, because the jays still have one of the best farms in baseball. “true” blue jays fans are shocked because we didn’t give up a single golden prospect. and part of the idea of having a ‘great’ farm is to use it to trade for good players, or keep them. our farm has done exactly what we need it to do.

          and why do people keep saying that these players were sucky on a sucky florida team? are the jays the same as the sucky marlins? no. we are kinda sucky too, but we play in the best division, and we constantly compete. adding the marlin’s best players to our team, without subtracting our best players, is a different forluma. can’t stress this enough – you’re an idiot.

  • Bunts

    Thanks for the analysis Alex … good stuff. Maybe its just unfounded optimism on my part, but in looking at the grids you shopw above — I’m just not willing to concede that the Sox cant compete in 2013, simply by spending a bit this winter — while at the same time limiting themselves to 1,2 and 3 year contract commitments, therefore, not effecting any rebuilding. I am, however, very concerned that the front office is paralyzed by analysis and the need to try and find the great bargain. Money is their leverage (not skill of evaluators or front office staff) …. and it needs to be used, understanding there is plenty of it and short term deals keep them from getting into the problems of the past few years. Of course, that is predicated on our trusting ownership …ie, are they willing to spend money with the hopes they “might” compete … or will they only spend money after they get the club to a level where they feel very confident they will compete?

    • Allan in Millis

      “I’m just not willing to concede that the Sox can’t compete in 2013….”

      i conceded last April. the RedSox did a lot to unload part of the cataclysm. but they still have a long way to go. btw, it took the equivalent of Babe Ruth and Mickey Mantle, and a great pitching staff to win the first championship in boston in 86 years…. the team they have now is unrecognizable by comparision. and since when, is merely being able to compete, ever gotten it done in the American League ?

      remember the Joe Morgan magic teams ? me neither.

      • Bunts

        Allan… yeah, my Sox memory goes way back and is pretty solid (Little Louie falling around 3rd base ring a bell?) … but it’s not about history, it’s about the present — and right now, teams can be rebuilt pretty quickly — so for that reason, I believe you can never punt on a season.

        • Kingkelly

          Solid memory, Bunts – and the occasional post-traumatic twitch to go with it, no doubt! 1972 was it?  Another year of formative damage here in the Tragic Kingdom (LOL).  And the awful postscript to the Little Louie bellyflop, is that we finished HALF A GAME out of first place. Because of some labor turmoil, we had played one fewer games.  No chance to make up the extra game and earn a one game playoff with the Tigers.  Ouch. 

          Your point about never writing off a season is well taken.   It would be ideal to reload just enough to (1) have a few elders to model good chemistry and habits and especially a few lost priorities like working counts and plate discipline, and to (2) be able to catch lightening in a bottle and grab one of the wild cards if, say, Farrell is able to turn Lester and Buchholz back into near aces, Lackey pitches 200 inn and wins 14 games again, and we get lucky with injuries and with guys like Lava and Iggy stepping up.  I’m up for it so long as the steps don’t involve more impulse signings, or a regression to a Spy vs. Spy undermining of the GM and other yada yada in the front office, or the leaks and smears and other House of Borgia action that set the rabid fringes of the sports media to stalking the Popeye’s chicken and rounding up clubhouse evil doers for public confessions.   And there is no way around the need for patience, Bunts – both toward the inevitable ups and downs of young players and also for the great short term value signings that crop up later in the off season.   

          I also worry a little that Ben may be a bit too deliberative for some one with such a crowded plate.  The missed timing on Dave Magadan and a recent 40-man roster Oops — the Brewers swiped one of our promising AA relief pitchers – suggests that Ben may need to delegate more.  I hope he will add players wisely, without blocking our top prospects with too many 2 or 3 year  Napoli and Hunter types, and without squandering too many of our better prospects in trades for players who’ll be long gone before we have built the next really good Red Sox team with the stuff to contend for several years..    

  • Sigh

    I wonder if John Farrell is slowly banging his head against a wall somewhere. 

  • http://www.facebook.com/RodfromCranston Rod Carri

    Sure Ben, sit back, sign ancient has beens. Don’t do anything that might cost a prospect. We all know they are future Hall of Famers and CY Young winners. Just disgusting at the inaction by Cherington. The LA trade was Luccino’s baby. Wish we had a dynamic GM, instead of Mr. Milquetoast.

    • Doug

      The Dodger trade was Bens. the hiring of Valentine was Lucchinos baby, get your facts right.

  • Dano50

    Hmmm…given some of the panic I’m hearing from those who think the Jays just became front-runners for 2013…I just had to refresh my memory.  The Marlins finished dead last…WITH these tremendous stars.  Didn’t we just jettison some of our own overpaid “talent”?  What has Reyes won?  Why is this highly skilled and even more highly paid player being moved so often?  I’m not nearly as interested in this as I am in what our Red Sox do.  I don’t believe this team of ours is nearly as bad as some think.  I certainly wouldn’t give up either of our two top position prospects, Bradley and Bogaerts for just about anyone.  I still think last season was an absolute aberration.  But even if it wasn’t…there is enough of a foundation…with a couple of additions to still compete while giving a couple of young, future stars to ready themselves in AAA this year. 

    • Doug

      Well written post, I also share your feelings, I’m not ready to bail at all, it’s just the overwhelming numbers of RSN that will give up at the slightest hint of something not going their way.  We have a good core group and will sign the necessary players in time, just don’t panic, what amazed me was the Jose Reyes played in 160 games last season, this guy is constantly injured?  So how iwill the hard pounding of that rug help him this coming year, it’ll be like old times he’ll be in and out of theline up a lot, those pitchers are going to find it much tougher in the AlL. East, so don’t panic my friends we’ll be up there soon.

  • Doug

    On the surface a great deal for the Jays, time of course will tell, I’m not going to be like the majority of RSN and go on the doom and gloom trail, this is a long HSL and we’ve made a block b uster Brinks Trade last summer that gives us 1/4 billion, before hitting the panic button just relax and watch things unfold, of course now Hunter is a Tiger so we can scratch that one.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/UPI42DTKMF5MITVVAKUJHCVTQQ melissa

    RED SOX ALL THE WAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/UPI42DTKMF5MITVVAKUJHCVTQQ melissa

    SOX ALL THE WAY BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BABA BOOEY, BABA BOOEY,BABA BOOEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • Bunratty

    Bennie?  Seriously??

  • scrappycoco

    dont recall the jays blazing a path to the world series when they had halladay in his prime & a somewhat decent hitting lineup

  • Anonymous

    With ticket prices highest in the league and a roster that has more holes than swiss cheese, Baby Ben better get his arse in gear and work his magic.  

  • Anonymous

    Alex Speier wrote: “Right-hander Henderson Alvarez (who spent an unimpressive year in the Toronto rotation throwing hard but featuring no real above-average pitches)”
     
    Henderson Alvarez is two-and-a-half years younger than Red Sox lefthander Felix Doubront. Compare their 2012 numbers:
     
    Alvarez 31 GS, 187.1 IP, 4.85 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 88 ERA+
    Doubront 29 GS, 161 IP, 4.86 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 89 ERA+
     
    Alvarez is a year younger than Red Sox righthander Rubby de la Rosa. Compare the 2011 numbers for Alvarez and de la Rosa:
     
    Alvarez 10 G, 10 GS, 63.2 IP, 3.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 121 ERA+
    dlRosa 13 G, 10 GS, 60.2 IP, 3.71 ERA, 1,40 WHIP, 100 ERA+
     
    Alvarez posted his numbers in the American League East, while de la Rosa posted his in the National League West.
     
    Alvarez appears to measure up well with the young darlings of the Sox staff.

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