Full Count
A Furiously Updated Red Sox Blog
WEEI.com Blog Network
New market reality: A look at Shane Victorino deal and how it fits Red Sox’ plans 12.04.12 at 6:30 pm ET
By Alex Speier

Shane Victorino

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — The Red Sox wanted a right fielder with the legitimate defensive range to play center for a few reasons. First, the team wants someone with the ability to handle Fenway Park’s expansive piece of right field real estate. Secondly, the team wants to have roster depth and flexibility to feature a solid backup plan should Jacoby Ellsbury be unavailable at any point in 2013 or for Jackie Bradley Jr. come 2014. And, if the team either trades Ellsbury this year or if Bradley — contrary to expectations for his development path — isn’t big league ready by the start of 2014, the team needs a fallback option in center, while also getting a player who can fill the vacancy that exists in right field in 2013 and, depending on the pace of Bryce Brentz‘s development, perhaps 2014 as well.

Enter Shane Victorino.

According to a major league source, the Red Sox reached a three-year agreement. Reports peg the value of the deal at $39 million ($13 million a year) for the outfielder, who just turned 32 in the past week. Victorino projects, according to another source, to be the everyday right fielder for the Sox while also providing the center field protection that the team needs. The deal isn’t yet final, as he needs to take a physical for it to become official.

The contract might seem like a steep cost of admission for a player who is coming off the worst season of his career. Victorino hit .255/.321/.383/.704 with 11 homers and 39 steals in 45 attempts for the Phillies and (after a mid-year trade) Dodgers in 2012. Those marks were down considerably from a career line of .275/.341/.430/.770.

The Sox are hopeful that he can bounce back closer to career norms. But even if he doesn’t, his defense and speed on the bases give him value even if the 2012 season represented something other than an aberration. Moreover, he does not cost the Red Sox a draft pick, as he was ineligible for a one-year qualifying offer from the Dodgers after having been traded mid-year.

While Victorino is a switch-hitter and thus, in theory, could give the Sox some left-right lineup balance, he struggled badly against right-handed pitchers in 2012 (hitting .229/.296/.333/.629 against righties, and eventually trying to bat right-handed against right-handed pitchers), compared to excellent marks against lefties (.323/.388/.518/.906). That is in keeping with Victorino’s career trends. Against lefties, he’s a career .301/.373/.508/.881 hitter, while against righties, he has a .267/.330/.402/.732 line.

“There are no perfect players,” observed one team source.

That being the case, the Sox wanted to continue an offseason that has seen them address most of their needs without sacrificing their future. The team has added two outfielders (Victorino, Jonny Gomes), a first baseman (and potentially catcher) in Mike Napoli and another catcher in David Ross without sacrificing any prospects or draft picks. That, in turn, follows GM Ben Cherington‘s stated desire to build a strong team for 2013 without compromising the team’s long-term outlook for 2014 and beyond.

But what of the cost of Victorino’s deal? Line up the top center fielders who have signed this offseason and it doesn’t necessarily look so out of place:

—–

B.J. Upton, Braves

Cost: 5 years, $75 million and a draft pick.

Age during contract: 28-32

2012: .246/.298/.454/.752, 28 HR, 31 SB

Career: .255/.336/.422/.758, 20 HR (162-game avg), 39 SB (162-game avg)

Angel Pagan, Giants

Cost: 4 years, $40 million

Age during contract: 31-34

2012: .288/.338/.440/.778, 8 HR, 29 SB

Career: .281/.333/.424/.757, 10 HR (162-game avg), 29 SB (162-game avg)

Shane Victorino, Red Sox

Cost: 3 years, $38 million

Age during contract: 32-34

2012: .255/.321/.383/.704, 11 HR, 39 SB

Career: .275/.341/.430/.770, 14 HR (162-game avg), 30 SB (162-game avg)

—–

So, Victorino cost slightly more per year than Pagan, but he comes off the books sooner — falling into the Sox’ blueprint of acquiring players on shorter-term deals. He also costs less per year and required fewer years than Upton — and he didn’t require the sacrifice of a draft pick.

Again, it seems expensive, but center fielders are very rarely available on the free agent market. In the previous four offseasons, the most notable center fielders to move in free agency were Coco Crisp, Mike Cameron, Marlon Byrd and Willy Taveras. If the Sox wanted a player capable of being a center fielder, they were going to have to pay a premium to land him.

Still, signing Victorino shouldn’t prevent the Sox from other moves. Between the departures of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Nick Punto in the Dodgers blockbuster, and the departures since last year of Daisuke Matsuzaka, Kevin Youkilis, Bobby Jenks and others, the team had more than $100 million come off its books.

To date, while the Sox have re-signed David Ortiz for a lower average annual value (AAV) than he played under last year, the team has spent approximately $34 million in terms of AAV on four free agents (Victorino, Gomez, Napoli, Ross). In other words, the team still has plenty of remaining flexibility beyond what it has spent to this point.

So far, all of the Sox’ moves have addressed areas of need. They haven’t prevented the team from being able to address other areas (starting pitcher, perhaps a shortstop, bench depth), and they haven’t cost the team either prospects or draft picks. In that context, so far, everything is proceeding according to a fairly well-defined blueprint.

Read More: 2012 Hot Stove, Shane Victorino, Print  |  Email  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
  • Doug from Woburn

    Have they even tried to offer the Marlins a package for Stanton? Ben…..ahh….Larry could you at least pick up the phone and see what they think. Victorino in right, poor choice. Gomes in left is just stupid.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/SHDUOOCILZCM47EC34MA4NK4PM James

    never mind backseat drivers now we have backseat gm’s

  • AndyP

    That’s why disgruntled fans make the big bucks.

  • DOLLAZ151

     LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A LOCK IN THE AL EAST BASEMENT NEXT NOT WORTH THE MONEY. BAD MOVE BEN BAD MOVE……

  • Ipse Amicus

    That statement does not make sense: Pagan is only 1 million more and they get him for an fourth year, but we should celebrate that Victorino comes off the books sooner?  If they were going to take him at all, doesn’t it make sense to secure a 4th year for the 1 million?  And also, wouldn’t the cost’s being spread out over 4 years instead of 3 make him more useful for trading?

  • DOLLAZ151

    Thank god for the patriots man to keep are spirits up, Just thinking  of this moves the soxs are making makes me sick.

  • Ipse Amicus

    And how does this leave room for those in Pawtucket like Brentz and Linares and Hassan and Hazelbacker?  Or have we already decided they are not good enough?

  • Ron from Melrose

    “Never confuse activity with achievement.” – John Wooden   Dwight Evans could probably give you .250/.320/.400/.720 and he’s 61 years old. 

  • Ben

    i remember this guy! isn’t his name coco crisp though?

  • Rcsully65

    I read today that Marlins want 3 Top prospects for Stanton and they said almost every team has asked. I’d be curious if Salty to Dodger could get Dee Gordon.

  • EDog

    $100 million to play with and this is the most creative the Sox can get? Napoli, Gomes, and Victorino? Sure, the free agent market is somewhat soft this year and they are areas of need, but c’mon!

  • Reality Check

     Yes – but the Giants are World Series Champions. The Red Sox were a mess and shed unprecedented salary. Unfortunately this puts the Sox at a disadvantage, and it looks like they are having to pay a bit more to attract free agents.

  • Steven Ladd

    Pitching? Pitching? Bueller? Oh and one thing on Napoli and his Fenway numbers…He is now on the same team as the pitchers who assisted him in achieving those. Sooo maybe they’re gearing up for a little Beckett interleague action at the fens???

    Haren was just had for 1/13. Probably could have done something there. I’m indifferent on Victorino.

  • Old Time Hockey

    name all the great free agents out there genius

  • Kc_flynn

    Best post I’ve read in a long time.

  • Anonymous

    Why is the best baseball writer in Boston writing for a radio station?

  • Ohara

    Pitching anyone?

  • Leavi27

    Who’s in Left?

  • 2013-hardworking team

    a little expensive, but I like the character of all these players the sox have been signing.  Aside from them all having experience on winning teams, they all bring either leadership and/or an edge/toughness to the team.  

  • Michaeldonahe

    The sox are doing a great job so far. Not sure why people are complaining. Looks like good deals so far for less by not having to give up picks. The players added so far will help, and other potential moves will make them even a better team. Stanton isn’t worth all the prospects. Besides picking him up will just end up like ells. Plus these contracts are short term until the highly regarded prospects are ready. Need someone to play short, a pitcher, outfielder and bullpen. I see them out of the cellar, can’t see it any other way. Some fans get so upset because the sx don’t go after high priced players. It’s all for good reason. Bay for instance, injury prone. Victorino showed what type of character he has. Took 3 years over 4, yeah it gives him a little more money, but he wants to be with a winning team. Shame on him for wanting to win. Negative fans that think they know the payers and what they are capable of and bash them are pathetic. Guess a lot of teams were interested in them because of their lack of skill too huh? Please get over it. Good signings guys… GO SOX!!!! You have my 100% support as a TRUE Sox fan

  • Brian

     Might as well try to Verlander, Harper, Trout, and Braun.  I mean, I’m sure they forgot Giancarlo played baseball, maybe you should text Ben and tell him some guy in Woburn figured it all out.

  • Brian91388

     Most people are ignorant, they’d complain about anything.

  • Popsy

    Nice Call

  • Anonymous

    Shorter term, more money, no draft picks. Isn’t this what everyone was whining about before? How much will Ellsbury make? And we got what from him last year?

  • Peter Nichols

    That’s what I’ve been thinking all along.The Sox have a glut of young outfield talent and are busy commiting to iffy veterans rather than clearing the way for the talented youth.  Ryan Kalish and Jerry Sands should be competing for full-time postions come spring training. Jackie Bradley and Bryce Brentz aren’t far behind, and JC Linares, Alex Hassan, and Jeremy Hazelbaker could be very useful back-ups/platoon players.Signing on Jonny Gomes somewhat cheaply for two years wasn’t a bad idea, but the Shane Victorino deal is for too much money and for too long.

  • Anonymous

     Yeah, a trade for Stanton makes sense… all it would cost would be EVERY GOOD PROSPECT IN THE ORGANIZATION.

  • Anonymous

     The Dodgers have AJ Ellis as catcher.  Would you trade five years of a talented middle infielder for one year of a backup catcher?

  • Anonymous

     Probably a combination of Gomes and Kalish.

  • Anonymous

    This is a signing predicated on the (usually correct) theory that players return closer to their career average after an exceptionally good or bad year. He seems like a fine 4th or 5th outfielder. The only issue I have the signing it is that you are supposed to buy low when a player is coming off a poor year, thereby reaping the benefits of the relatively low market value. The Red Sox paid for Victorino’s career numbers, with no apparent discount for his poor 2012. That doesn’t seem like good financial sense.

    And, the Sox are still a strong bat away from a lineup. Napoli, Gomes and Victorino fill a few holes  but doen’t come close to delivering the offense needed. We have signed a bunch of cogs, but we need an engine.

  • Anonymous

    Sox fans need to start following national baseball media for objective insights. Local guys are deep in the tank and wont risk losing their key to the executive washroom at Fenway.

  • Grygor_c

    I’m betting dinner that Jason Bay has a better season then Gomes. Any takers?

  • Tonyfranco

    Gomes had the exact same season as Cody Ross.  How much will Ross go for?  In fact their averages were essentially the same, with just about the same HRs for each.  Additionally, they both were inept against RHP.  Gomes was lower at about .209 to Ross’ .240.  However the difference is actually only 3 base hits. 

    So again, how much do you think Ross goes for?

  • RedSox1949

    We don’t need Stephan Drew or any other free agent shortstop.  We have shortstop prospects (great prospects) throughout our system.  And I am not about to give up on Iglesias yet.  His glove and arm are A+.  Oh ya, I forgot he has a hole in his swing.  BS, BS, BS.  In 361 ABs at AAA last year he hit .269.  And he struck out 47 times for a strikeout rate of 13.02%.  Yes, he did have trouble in his September call-up.  But how many major league hitters don’t have an extended period of non-productivity.  I remember Pedroia and Gonzalez, plus everyone who ever played the game having those periods.  If he is working on adding strength this off-season, as I heard he was going to do, he could be a very pleasant surprise this year.  But, this is Boston, and if you take too long to develop, we need to get rid of you.  That is the Boston mindset.  Quit being so negative.  Iglesias will be an outstanding shortstop, and it could happen this year, and I just hope it is with the Red Sox.  If it takes another year, it takes another year.  And we do have Ciriaco who proved he can do a very decent job at shortstop.  Don’t give up on this kid.  His cieling is too high to give up on him yet.  Get positive for a while.  Come o nBoston!!!!

Red Sox Box Score
Red Sox Schedule
Baseball Analytics Blog
Red Sox Headlines
Red Sox Minor League News
Red Sox Team Leaders
MLB Headlines
Tips & Feedback

Verify