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What the acquisition of Stephen Drew means 12.17.12 at 10:00 am ET
By Alex Speier

The Red Sox have a one-year agreement with shortstop Stephen Drew. (AP)

All offseason, the Red Sox have targeted free agents who a) were available on short-term contracts; b) didn’t cost the team a draft pick; c) are capable of solid if unspectacular returns; and d) can upgrade the team’s production at each position in the short term while permitting the organization’s inventory of prospects to continue developing. Perhaps no player more obviously fit into that blueprint than Stephen Drew. Thus, it came as little surprise when the team agreed (according to multiple industry sources) with Drew on a straight one-year deal for 2013.

According to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, who first reported the agreement, the deal is for $9.5 million. (Such a contract would, in turn, boost the Red Sox’ payroll for 2013 within approximately $10 million of the luxury tax threshold. More on the financial implications of Drew for the shape of the team’s payroll is here.)

Drew, who turns 30 in March, has been limited over the last two years by a broken ankle that cost him much of both the 2011 and 2012 seasons, and that hindered him on the field when he returned in 2012. In the last two years, while playing for the Diamondbacks and (after a mid-year trade in 2012) the A’s, he’s played just 165 games, hitting .238/.313/.373/.687 with 12 homers in that time. Those numbers, in turn, left Drew open to a short-term deal in a favorable hitter’s park where he might be able to re-establish his value before going back on the market, much as was the case in 2010 with a fellow Scott Boras client, Adrian Beltre, who signed a one-year deal with the Sox after an injury-riddled career-worst campaign in 2009.

Though Drew struggled in 2011 and 2012, in the previous three years, he’d been one of the better offensive shortstops in the game, hitting .277 with a .335 OBP, .465 slugging mark, .800 OPS and 48 homers while averaging 146 games per season and delivering roughly average shortstop defense (as measured by John Dewan’s Plus/Minus and Runs Saved metrics). His OPS during that three-year span ranked third in the majors among big league shortstops with at least 1,000 plate appearances, behind only Hanley Ramirez (.917) and Troy Tulowitzki (.883), and ahead of Jose Reyes (.791) and Derek Jeter (.783).

Such a performance, in turn, underscores the notion that he has fairly considerable offensive upside, particularly when measured against peers at his position. And, given that he’s still in the middle of his theoretical prime years, the idea of a rebound from his struggles of the last two years isn’t far-fetched.

Drew’s upside and willingness to sign a short-term deal both fit into the Red Sox’ offseason scheme. By getting the 2004 first-rounder (No. 15 overall) on a one-year deal, it insulates the Sox from risk if he does not bounce back offensively or if he doesn’t show the range to remain at short. (Some talent evaluators noticed a decline in his range in 2012 while he returned from his ankle injury; Dewan’s system had Drew being seven runs worse than league average in 2012, as opposed to an average of roughly two runs better than league average from 2006-11.)

Yet even if his production doesn’t bounce back, his patient approach at the plate still should contribute to the lineup reconstruction in which the Sox are currently engaged, with an emphasis on hitters who can work deep in the count, drive out a starter and then pillage opponents’ middle relievers.

While he’s not cut from quite the same cloth in terms of plate discipline as his brother, former Red Sox outfielder J.D. Drew, there’s at least a fraternal resemblance. Drew has seen an average of 3.88 pitches per plate appearance in his career (slightly above the league average of 3.80), and in the last two years, that number has bumped up to 4.20 pitches per plate appearance.

Meanwhile, as a left-hander with stronger numbers against right-handed pitchers (.274/.339/.445/.784 career, .234/.329/.368/.697 in 2012) than southpaws (.242/.299/.400/.699 career, .198/.260/.302/.563 in 2012), he should help to provide some balance to a Sox lineup that was skewing right-handed with the agreements with Mike Napoli (pending the outcome of talks to resolve an apparent issue with his physical), Shane Victorino (a switch-hitter with decidedly better numbers against lefties than righties), Jonny Gomes and David Ross.

With Drew in the fold (assuming he passes his physical), the Sox can afford to take a more deliberate approach to the development of shortstop prospects Jose Iglesias and Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts, who has fewer than 100 plate appearances in Double-A, was likely ticketed for a return to Portland regardless of whether the team signed Drew. But if the team hadn’t added Drew — the best available shortstop in a fairly terrible class of options at that position — then there was a good chance that Iglesias would have entered spring training as the frontrunner for the starting job.

Given Iglesias’ spectacular defensive potential, that wasn’t the end of the world. Even if he proved woeful at the plate, his incredible glove still could have made the 22-year-old (who turns 23 in January) an asset to the big league team.

Still, given that he hit just .118/.200/.191/.391 in 77 plate appearances in the big leagues in 2012, the appeal of sending him back to Triple-A to build upon the progress that he showed at that level in 2012 (hitting .266/.318/.306/.624 in 88 games, with August and May representing the best two months of his career) was not inconsiderable. With Drew as the Sox’ primary shortstop in 2013, Iglesias can gain everyday at-bats in Triple-A, regardless of his production at that level. He will also serve as roster protection should Drew get injured, an option with whom the Sox would be comfortable for at least a couple weeks at a time and perhaps longer.

If Iglesias makes further progress this year in Triple-A, then he’ll either force his way onto the Red Sox roster (perhaps supplanting Drew, who could become either a utility player or a trade candidate) or gain value as a potential trade chip himself, at a time when Bogaerts is closing the gap with Iglesias in terms of his big league ETA.

So, Drew fits on a number of levels. At the least, he’s a credible place holder with a good plate approach. If he bounces back, he’ll give the Red Sox above-average offensive production at shortstop on a low-risk deal, something that could give the Sox greater flexibility to make a trade (whether it involved Iglesias or Drew himself) in the middle of 2013 or, if Drew stays for a full year and plays at a high level, could help the team to secure an extra draft pick if he leaves in a better free agent position than he arrives.

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  • Anthony

    This is getting way to exciting for me, a bunch of leftovers.. go sox !!

  • F the Red Sox

    Is this a joke. Lets pay a guy 10 mil a year who is a step down from Pedro c. I think I am going to shoot myself in the face now…..

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100003997287905 John Smith

    9.5 million for a guy who had a -0.6 WAR last season? Winning.

    Ben Cherrington is like mana from heaven for the rest of the AL East.

  • askj

    Just like psychos shouldn’t be allowed access to weapons, morons shouldn’t be allowed access to advanced statistics.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100003997287905 John Smith

    Show some respect to the victims in Conn. 

    If you don’t like my use of advanced statistics. Fine, show me one that indicates Drew was a good player last season and worthy of 9.5 million.

    It seems like the Redsox are paying top dollar for players coming of bad years and hoping they get themselves back on track. Well thats fine if you are only doing that in 1-2 instances.

    However, almost every FA the sox have signed are coming off down years or have huge question marks going forward. I guess they can sell hope that if everything goes right they will have a solid team but thats not what the way baseball works (or life in general).

  • OY

    If they’re hiring incompetents they could hire me at age 60… I have bad knees, a bad back, bum shoulders and bad feet.  But hey, I work cheap and I can strike or ground out with the best of ‘em..

  • LarryL.inBoston

    Awesome move Ben. You are lighting the baseball world on fire you rascal.

  • Ipse Amicus

    I like this signing, if but only if, he has the range.  Otherwise, it is a terrific move.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/SHDUOOCILZCM47EC34MA4NK4PM James

    was gonna make this post before reading article, it wouln’t have made a difference. u guys r so predictable. every one is so negitive. u should pick a new team to root for maybe u won’t complain so much……    WRONG

  • http://twitter.com/JLFCASH John Fahrer

    A step down from Ciriaco? I have a feeling Ciriaco will be Darnell McDonald Part II in 2013 (a minor league journeyman who was a solid bench player for one season then came back down to earth shortly thereafter). Drew’s much more patient at the plate and his production in 39 games for the A’s is 20 homers and 75 RBI in a 162 game span. And he’s 100% recovered from that broken ankle now. Look for him to be another money well spent one year pickup in 2013 (just like Beltre, another Boras) guy was in 2010.

  • Anonymous

    How are you in the clubhouse?  That seems to be the number one priority right now.

  • tim

    This is a good move people .. esp on a 1 year pillow deal!  He is a huge step up from Iglesias offensively and is coming of a down year in a pitcher-friendly park.  This is a lot like Beltre coming from Seattle.  Sox need power and he should provide that in the friendly confines of Fenway. I bet he hits .265-270 with 20+ HRs.  If not, or if he gets hurt, than can always bring up Iglesias and we’re right back where we started.  Now sox just need a cheap lefty LF (that can hit righties) to platoon with Gomes.  How about bringing back Podsednik?  Good offseason (with the future in mind) for Ben.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100003997287905 John Smith

    Career:
    Player A (32): 1871pa, 51/69sb, .277/.308/.408/.716, .312woba, 89wRC+, +9.3uzr/150@SS, 7.3fwar, 2.3fwar/600pa, 6.8bwar, 2.2bwar/600pa

    Player B (30): 3417pa, 34/49sb, .265/.328/.433/.761, .330woba, 94wRC+, -4.6uzr/150@SS, 11.9fwar, 2.1fwar/600pa, 11.6bwar, 2.0bwar/600pa

    2012:
    Player A (31): 546pa, 14/20sb, .250/.282/.381/.663, .288woba, 74wRC+, +6.2uzr/150@SS, 1.8fwar, 2.0fwar/600pa, 2.0bwar, 2.2bwar/600pa

    Player B (29): 327pa, 1/3sb, .223/.309/.348/.657, .291woba, 79wRC+, -10.7uzr/150@SS, 0.0fwar, 0.0fwar/600pa, -0.1bwar, -0.2bwar/600pa

    The same guys who said Player A was completely worthless trash when he was traded for a manager a couple months ago, are now praising the team for signing player B for $9.5m.

    Weird.

  • Ben

    This whole off season screams we won’t compete for at least 2 years.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100003997287905 John Smith

    Yep, looks like the Redsox are basing their model on the cubs and trying to build a club full of lovable losers.

  • anguillaman3

    The signing is yet further proof that Bench Cherington is in way over his head. FIRE HIM NOW !!!
    9.5 million…and you can count on the guy missing 1/2 the season..just like Bailey, and Napoli will likely miss time again due to injury this coming year.  Signing a bunch of stiffs for 1-3 years does not make the deals good because they are short term deals.  Meanwhile Lou Merloni is pining away..excusing bad deal after bad deal because the “SOX HAVE A LOT OF HOLES TO FILL”…yup and who is to blame for that?

  • Wmeritz

    The Sox do have a lot of holes to fill. What they can ill afford to do is fill these holes with overpaid square pegs.

    The free agent market is full of guys seeking enormous paydays and long contracts.

    We will see just how smart the Sox were this off season once the regular season gets underway.

    At this point I am pessimistically optimistic.

  • Nighttrain75

    be careful throwing out all that confusing player A and player B along with all those silly numbers. the people your post is intended for won’t understand your point

  • Anonymous

    Where are you getting your info?  He’s averaged 146 games/season in his career.  Oops, does that not support your agenda?

  • Anonymous

    Obviously you’re clueless about the economics of the Free Agent market (which is ironic considering your name, lol).  There are literally 2 SS on the whole market that can be considered starter-worthy.  You trade Aviles (who was arbitration eligible) for a manager, and get an equivalent player who bats Lefty (needed).  So you get a manager and flip your SS batting side and you give up what?  A little money?  How is this not a good move?

  • anguillaman3

    Napoli, Drew and Bailey …of the three none of them has averaged 146 games over the last three seasons…check the stats… I think three years..the last three years is a good window into what you can expect next season?  Agenda….dude, I’m just a Sox fan that’s it..hate to see the home team making mistake after mistake..year after year.

  • Doug

    Yeah, this is NEGATIVE NATION at its worst, what is wrong with these clones, are they brainwashed by the sick Boston Media?  

  • http://twitter.com/Zj_6 Zack Jones

    people like you who constantly called for the sox to trade crawford and gonzalez are the reason why there are so many holes to fill

  • http://twitter.com/Zj_6 Zack Jones

    he was injured and it’s low-risk high-reward. figure it out

  • http://twitter.com/Zj_6 Zack Jones

    I’m curious to know what SPECIFIC moves you would’ve made this offseason. and I mean every detail. B/c all you do is complain but you stop short of giving us a solution

  • anguillaman3

    I actually never ever advocating trading either player.  But anyways’ I don’t see it as my fault that they are replacing Crawford and AGON with another Drew at 9.5 Million and that they signed GOMES for big money…I’m not the one making these moves..the GM is.  Also, DUDE..asking fans what would they do or “why are you not the GM”..its not very insightful. Don’t blame caring knowledgeable fans for the Piss Poor moves the Sox GM’S continue to make at every turn.

  • William Simeone

    Just spening money on free agent players that ae at the end of their careers. Better to bring up kids from Pawtucket. Red Sox are not going anyhere for the next 3 years. Ben you are incompetent. Red Sox need an old school baseball man to be their GM. I will go see Pawtucket Red Sox and boycott the parent team. Wait until the season begins and we compare the free agent signings against quality free agents they could have signed.

  • http://twitter.com/BallgameExpress Ballgame Express

    It’s so obviously a bridge year. A strategy is unfolding and while it is never popular to just be good enough to pacify the average fan as we fans always want to win this year, this club plain and simple isn’t good enough. Let’s look at the developmental side of the organization with the eye toward 14 and 15 and beyond. And seriously isn’t it all and always going to boil down to pitching. So while the Sox have an average team on the field relative to the rest of the division (and that’s assuming everyone has around their career average year), the pitching has too many question marks. Oh except that Dempster is hilarious. That is a fact. It is pitching that is really in need of an upgrade as much as or more than anything else over the next 2 yrs. That awesome clubhouse chemistry might sour a bit but it won’t be real funny to fans if the Sox are 10 games out in July.This team only competes deep into the season if everyone plays way over their heads in a miracle season scenario with the Jays collapsing. Possible but not likely. Folks get used to it “bridge year or 2″ it’s so obvious. Fans should enjoy Fenway and MLB, root for the Sox it’s our team they are way better than last year and we still  care, but fans should be realistic.

  • Dewey

    Nobody was calling for Crawford and AGod to be traded….the idea of someone taking on those contracts (plus Beckett!) at the time was ridiculous. I think most fans figured we were stuck with them. I do wonder why they can’t get any Ross-like bargains, and think if they have this many health concerns about Napoli, they should run away fast! DH spot is full and not sure who they were even bidding against there.

  • Anonymous

    I like it, too, Tim.  I was surprised by his career stats until I remembered he was a 1st round pick.  If he is recovered enough to regain some of his range in the field, it is a major improvement over Iggy and Ciriaco.  

    It appears that a healthy Kalish will be the platoon LF going into the Spring.  Maybe more will happen then if he can’t show enough.

  • Anonymous

    With all due respect for the advanced metrics of ballplayer evaluations, the eyeball test says Mike Aviles couldn’t hold a healthy Stephen Drew’s jock.   

  • Anonymous

    Napoli is the only one that it would be fair to include there.  Bailey is a relief pitcher and Drew broke an ankle (badly, I hear) in 2011.  We’re all just fans here seeing things through different colored lenses at times.  That is the fun part of being a fan.

  • Anonymous

    The Ross bargains are gone from this year’s inflation in salaries.  Agreed on the Napoli thing, but we need someone at first, preferably one who doesn’t insult the glove by putting it on.  Without many options, fans may have to settle for him.

  • Dano50

    John Smith says,”If you don’t like my use of advanced statistics. Fine, show me one that indicates Drew was a good player last season and worthy of 9.5 million.” 

    You’re absolutely right.  Problem here is you’re judging the player on the basis of a half season…one in which he was also traded…between leagues even.  Not exactly a terrific use of those stats really.  The guy is a veteran of 7 big league seasons…with plenty of motivation to perform if he’d like to continue to remain a well paid vet.  He’s also a place holder…short term guy to give two young prospects time to develop.

    Lastly…9.5 mil IS a lot of money.  But that’s what FA vets of this level are getting these days.  Moan all you wish.  That’s the reality.  Would have doubtless cost a bit less if it had been for two or three…but they didn’t want that commitment.   

  • Dano50

    Or care…

  • Dewey

    Why not LaRoche for the traditional 3/$39M? Talks with Nats were at a stalemate at last check. Napoli will hurt himself out there and won’t do Middlebrooks any favors.

  • http://twitter.com/Zj_6 Zack Jones

    But you never put forth any of your suggestions…what would have been a good move? And Gomes is not big money. We are paying 5 mil per year for a guy who was better than Kevin Youkilis across the board statistically. AND he costs less than half what youk does annually. So the gomes deal is a bargain. The Stephen Drew deal is a Beltre-style deal. Drew will far outperform Iglesias offensively. Plus he i patient at the plate. Every offensive player they’ve added (save for victorino) works the count and gets on base. Which is something our offense NEEDS. The Victorino signing is the only one where I think a big mistake was made.

  • bielawski82

    “Given Iglesias’ spectacular defensive potential, that wasn’t the end of
    the world. Even if he proved woeful at the plate, his incredible glove
    still could have made the 22-year-old (who turns 23 in January) an asset
    to the big league team.”

    Are you kidding me?  Let’s just say for arguments’ sake that his glove actually does save say… a run or two on defense per week.  He can’t hit.  I mean really, he can’t hit, barely at AAA and not even relevant in the majors (he got what, 2 or 3 hits in a couple of weeks?). 

    Look, I hope he comes around and makes it to the majors one day, he’s only 22.  At this rate, maybe when he’s 24 or 25 he can give it a shot.  Or he may be a career minor league player.

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