Since Theo took over, and now Ben, the Red Sox best farm prospects seem to always be “2-3 years away.”  Since Ben seems to have a “wait for the young guys” strategy to justify his recent moves and buy himself time, more concerned with proven ability to draft than one particular pick.  Both small and big market teams like Tampa Bay and Texas have proven they can consistently pick impact players.  Sox? Not so much.

Do you think the 2nd rounder will be as good as or better than La Roche?. Probably not .

I can’t believe you people are buying this. We need a proven first base man. This ain’t the NFL. 

HopJim, Josh Reddick and Felix Doubront are two former Sox prospects who showed they were ready last year.

A high second round pick gives the Sox a reasonable chance to land a good player who will give them 5+ years of inexpensive service.

Can’t assume whoever the draft pick is won’t be better than LaRoche since we don’t know who he is yet. But he very well could be. A lot of stud players have been second round draftees over the years (Pedroia, Carl Crawford, Austin Jackson to name a few).

If we had a departing qualifying offer FA this offseason, I’d be cool with giving up that pick since we’d be getting compensation for the FA we lost otherwise. But the fact of the matter he isn’t.

LaRoche is a solid player, but he’s not a top ten 1B in most seasons and NOT worth a draft pick. Plus, unlike Napoli, he has virtually no AL experience. So the Napoli deal will get done eventually.

LaRoche isn’t a top ten first baseman in most seasons. His age 32 season was his first with 30+ homers. NOT worth losing a draft pick over. Things would be different if we had a departing qualifying offer FA, but we don’t. Napoli’s an experience AL hitter who absolutely rakes at Fenway. That deal will get done.

Andy…Who cares if the Nationals get our pick? We need a left handed hitter who can actually catch the ball, too. 

Very true. Guys like Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, Austin Jackson, and Carl Crawford were all second round picks.

Normally I wouldn’t be opposed to losing a pick if we were getting compensation for a departing FA. But since all of our departing FAs were fringe guys who weren’t eligible for qualifying offers, it’s very important that they avoid losing that pick and sign Mike Napoli.

The Rays have been more successful at drafting partly because they had great draft position due to being cellar dwellers for so long

I agree that the sox are holding onto this pick so that they can alot the money to other tough to sign picks either early if someone falls to them or later in the draft on some HS talent.

 What’s the big deal? According to baseball-reference.com, the only Sox 2nd rounder since 2004 who’s still with the team is Pedroia. 

LaRoche hit 32 homers in 2006 (so 2012 was his 2nd 30+ year) and has been just about a lock for 25 every year.  For comparison, Youkilis only topped 20 twice (29 and 27), and Adrian Gonzalez had 27 and 15 in his one-plus years in Boston.  The last time the Red Sox primary 1B hit 30+ in one season was Mo Vaughn in 1998.  

Chances are, the 45th pick probably won’t be an impact Major Leaguer.  The Sox are much more concerned with losing the slot money that they would otherwise have by picking in that area.

So what percentage of 2nd round picks become league average or better MLB players?.    I bet the number is south of 5%.

Also, if you lose your 2nd round pick, well, the loss of 1.1 million is offset by the fact you have 1 less player to sign and develop.

Jim Thome was the 333rd pick in the draft. Great players can developed and overlooked. Good article.

The average player selected 50th in the draft will have between 2.0 and 4.0 WAR total over their CAREER in the Major Leagues.  LaRoche had a 4.0 WAR according to baseball-reference just last season, and not including his injury plagued 2011 had put up about 1.0 WAR every year.  So, like I said in my last comment, it’s likely that the surplus cash for their 2nd round pick would be more valuable to the Red Sox than whoever they would draft in that spot.  

There is a very steep curve at the top of the draft – for example, first overall picks will average about 20 WAR during their careers while the 10th picks will average about 10 WAR.  These numbers were from before slots/pools, so perhaps the Sox feel that an extra $400K+ at the 7th pick would allow them to select a player who in the past would have gone a couple spots higher.  Mark Appel slipped to #9 last year and may be there at #7 again, so the Sox would be wise to have as much money at their disposal as possible if that is their intention.  

Personally, I would rather sign LaRoche because he will most likely put up the same if not better WAR in those two years than the 45th-ish pick would if/when he makes MLB.  While Napoli is a solid hitter and can play 1B, he is mainly a catcher and the majority of his value comes from putting up power numbers at that position.  As a 1B, his HR/RBI/SLG is much more average.

Using B-Ref, since the inception of the draft there have been 145 2nd round picks, and only 8 players who produced a career  WAR equal or more than 10 (my definition of league average or better).  Thats less than 6%   . Of these 145 players,   43% made it to the MLB but most were either fringe players or players who made it up for a cup of coffee only.

The odds of getting an impact player are long enough that it should not discourage any team from signing a FA.  Now if it was a first round pick, especially a top 10 pick (which are protected), that’s a different story perhaps.  Depends on the quality of the FA, Laroche probably does not qualify.
 

Another way of looking at it is is that those 145  2nd round players have generated 237 WAR or on average 1.5 WAR per pick   Assuming a market value of 5 million per WAR, an average 2nd round pick is worth 7.5 million less signing bonus, development cost and salary.  Call it 5 million.

So basically the Red Sox are unwilling to spend 5 million not subject to luxury tax calculations to sign a GG 1Bman who hit over 30 HR .

How do you spell cheap?  (BTW, not a huge fan of Larouche and would prefer a healthy Napoli since he is better suited for Fenway so long as the Red Sox had a decent defensive replacement)

Forget LaRoche…if you trade with the Pirates, why not get Garrett Jones back in the trade? In 2012 Jones played half his games at 1B and half in OF… EXACTLY what Sox need!! He is L-handed and he hit .888 OPS vs R-handed pitching!! He could platoon with Gomes…OR he could platoon with Gomez (if Napoli signing falls apart). And Pirates don’t need him!! They just traded with the Marlins for ex-All Star 1B G Sanchez and now they have Sands…and they have Tabata, Presley, Harrison, and Sands as FOUR outfield BACK-UPS!! Lets get 1B and a L-handed outfielder figured out first!!…does Ben already have a plan to move Bailey, Aceves and a catcher for a major missing piece?

…”between 2.0 and 4.0 WAR…over their career”…REMEMBER…That is IF THEY MADE A ML TEAM AT ALL…!! I agree the value of the 2nd round pick is now more about the money than the actual pick…:)

Just ask the Astros how important slot money can be though. It’s not just the 2nd round pick and how good that pick will be. It is also the 1.7 million dollars that could go to a Lance Mccullers or a Rio Ruiz who the Astros were able to throw extra money at to get the from going to College. Mccullers is a 1st round talent and Ruiz would of been had he not been injured.

Being an Astro fan (i know sad) the slot money Luhnow saved with there 2nd rd pick in Fontana who signed for about 1.2 million less helped get those guys (along with Correia signing less at #1 )
I just wanted to point that out to you guys. It is not just that pick, that money could help sign 2-3 picks

Terrific point Jim….I personally hate to see the Sox thinking like Tampa or Oakland..they are in a good
sized market with only one baseball team..the owners rake in a lot of dough..but now they are going the
way that the second tier clubs that rarely ever win anything go.  Their ability to judge talent has proven to be horrendous over and over again.

Understandable but your information is incorrect in regards to this season.  In the past any type A free agents not only resulted in the team losing a free agent to gain the signing teams first round pick but they also received a first round supplemental pick as well.  And there were quite a few supplementals.  Last year the final supplemental pick was #60 with the second round starting at pick #61.  The #44 pick has been a supplemental pick for many years and so the definition for a second round pick has changed with this new collective bargaining agreement.

How many balls will Napoli let get by him on throws in the dirt? LaRoche will hit a few less homeruns but will give us a good glove that will in lone run give us more wins. Screw the second rd pick. I dont want this to be a bridge year. Lets win now.

     Too much importance is made out of draft picks/prospects. How often do they really pan out? Always a waiting game. How about the importance of the ‘present’ team and it’s roster & everyday lineup?  In order to give ‘today’s’ fan a true ‘face value’ for the ‘present’ ticket prices!  Free agents like Adam Laroche are worth today’s ticket prices while draft picks or prospects may or may not be in the ‘future’!  It’s like the saying: “Yesterday’s history, tomorrow’s a ‘mystery’ and today’s a gift, that is why it’s called the ‘present’!  

Get the Napoli deal done and we keep the 2nd Round Pick.  Everybody wins.

Lets go for it we need a 1st  baseman  who is good defensively and also has a good bat , If that takes a draft pick so be it!

I miss the days when you could read the comment boards and not see things like WAR and such. Everyone in a GM in hiding…

This is just a dumb article. It’s not even settled that the pick will be #44, but Bradford tells us that 15 of the #44 slot have made the majors since 1980. Surely the only meaningful comparison is to cite, say, the number of picks in each slot 1-50 who have made the majors since then. And to add to the silliness, 23 teams passed on Trout in ’09? The only meaningful comment on all this is ” I don’t know why the Red Sox value a draft pick of indeterminate ranking over a live first baseman for 2013.”

Do you really believe what you write, or are you just trying to ellicit a response from others? Look, this team is NOT going to be competitive for 2013 and 2014, so why should the Sox sacrifice a draft pick just to finish third instead of fifth? The goal here has got to be setting the stage for the next set of prospects to make an impact, likely in 2015 (unless you assume Bogaerts and Bradley and Barnes are going to be ROY candidates in ’14?). The issue here is not necessarily the player chosen at #44, but the slot money. Jay is correct in assuming that Appel could be available and that $1.2M could come in very handy if the Sox should select him. As for me, I’d rather see the Sox tread water for a year or two and set themselves up for another stretch of 7-8 years of top-notch finishes, as opposed to signing Victorino, Napoli, et al so that they can pretend to be competitive – thus spending money needlessly and forfeiting several needed slots in each years first-year-player draft!

We’re still far from done, too. It seems likely that trade scenarios are going to factor in. Free agency is only one piece of the larger offseason pie (…wow…terrible analogy!).

Look if it was a first round pick, I would be on board.  But, a second round pick come on people!  Obviously Napoli is broken.  So sign LaRoche, if the Sox could get Garret Jones back they probably would have done it…or I would hope.  Not happening need LaRoache and pitching to go their way or the Red Sox will be in the basement.  

Look if it was a first round pick, I would be on board.  But, a second round pick come on people!  Obviously Napoli is broken.  So sign LaRoche, if the Sox could get Garret Jones back they probably would have done it…or I would hope.  Not happening need LaRoache and pitching to go their way or the Red Sox will be in the basement.  

Pick or no pick, Napoli is ten times the player that LaRoche is.  Get Napoli signed NOW, and let’s put an end to this nonsense.

Yeah, as if every draft pick is going to be a Mike Trout.
Ben seems to have his extremeties pucker up at the very idea of giving up anyone in a trade.
He thinks every prospect is going to be an all star.
Theo at least, viewed a function of the farm system as being able to use in trades for needed players.

Just about every (smart) team values draft picks properly at this point. It’s not about big market/small market. Small market teams have to do it for their entire roster. Teams like the Red Sox do it to build a core and then they can afford to make splashes in FA to fill in the gaps.

It’s very simple. Stop looking at everything from an anti-Red Sox angle for once (you alleged Red Sox “fan”) and you’ll learn something.

 Also Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo who were traded away for Adrian Gonzalez (a deal made two years ago)  made their big league debut.

I don’t understand why the 1.2 million is that important.   That’s what last years 44 pick got as a bonus.  The Red Sox wont have to give a bonus to the 44 pick since they wont have the 44 pick.
Its a wash.

I guess they could offer more to their 1st round pick with the 1.2 million and offer a lower amount for the 44 pick.  However, with bonuses now constrained, I have to imagine players are less likely to not sign and try again the next year in the hope of getting a significantly higher bonus.  Those that do so are more likely to do so because they do not like the organization than the bonus amount

I wonder if there are work arounds,  For example, offering a higher minor league salary and guaranteed years.

Napoli was also a .227 hitter last year who really only had one good year (2011) who has also missed a ton of games on IR.  He is  also a butcher in the field while LaRoche won the Gold Glove at 1st base in the NL last year.  LaRoche is also a LH hitter, which would give the Sox a more balanced line-up.

I don’t think we should go after LaRoche, I wished we would have gotten Morales from the Angels – now there is a player we could have used. This is the worst team the Sox have put together in a while. Draft picks are over-rated. Rob mentions the Mike Trout pick at 29 — but think about it — who was picked between 1 and 28. Those are the ones that should be kicking themselves. I do like the 7th pick this year. Next year we’ll probably get the 1st or 2nd pick overall. At least that’s what we can look forward to — draft picks for the next three years or so ……..

Yeah Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, Middlebrooks, Youkilis, Hanley Ramirez, Paplebon, Bard, Buchholz, and Reddick were all just plugs right? hhahahahahha how many more “impact” players do you need. moron. 

good point made, hope the brass sees it that way.

Um Adam LaRoache just signed with the Rangers…

I think in 2013 the Red Sox are bound to be a playoff team and here’s why. The have a new manager. John Farrell was an excellent pitching coach with the Sox and is now our manager. We have solid guys and he manages a solid team. Lester + Bucholz= Playoff Contention. Dempster is a veteran and can toss a good ball. Doubront is a star and I’m ready for him to be great. And Lackey just had two down seasons. He will I think toss his best season in Boston in ’13.  Those guys will be with their old pitching coach and I think will rebound. Second, Ellsbury is fully recovered and can get back.  Victorino will destroy the AL East. Pedroia is always good. And a Ortiz, Napoli and Middlebrooks combo is a bomb. Salty was excellent last year and we need power. Johnny Gomes is an above average player but if Kalish and or Nava bounce back, we will be ok there. And Stephen Drew is bound to rebound. And of course our bullpen may be one of the best in the AL. I think the main reasons to a disatrous ’12 season was 1. Because nobody was Bobby V’s friend or got along with him. 2. We were hampered with injuries. 3. Beckett was just BAD.
I think the 2013 Boston Red Sox will clinch the AL Wild Card.

The sox have some guys around the corner. Signing Adam LaRoche gives you a Gold Glove first baseman who can hit (successfully in a short stint in Boston). Though wise to analyze cost and compensation, this is a situation where the Sox are about to out smart themselves. Napoli is not a risk worth taking, and really doesn’t fit all that well. Very good to great firstbaseman make the whole infield better. It’s time to pull out of the Napoli mistake, and move forward with LaRoche. The price tag fits.

Honestly, its a bunch of ‘what goes around, comes around’.  The Sox have had their share of draft pick compensations just as much as any other team.  And moving forward with the qualifying offer approach now, you can see that as the years come, they will indeed be offering these offers as players sign elsewhere and they receive their pick.  Its a numbers game.  Then, as far as the picks are concerned, its all ‘statistical hunches’.  Look at how many first round number one picks never made it?  And if you look at the starting 9 of most if not all teams, where are they in the draft pick order?  So there are too many variables to be so concerned with holding onto the pick.  Look, any one of the highly regarded prospects we are betting on to turn this franchise around come 2014 and beyond could be a dud.  I have followed the motto of writers like Steve Buckley that your picks and your minor leaguers are there so you can trade them for players who are successful at the major league level.  I’m not saying LaRoche is the answer, but when you are limited in options, you have to make these deals.

Probably another part of the Sox’ hesitation re LaRoche has to do with his age.  He seeks a three-year deal–if he were content to accept a two-year deal he’d have resigned with the Nationals by now–and he’s a couple years older than Napoli. Granted, LaRoche is a career first baseman who’s way less banged up physically than the veteran catcher the Sox are preferring to sign; but 34 now means 37 in the last year of the deal LaRoche hopes to get, and though his glorious 2012 campaign is a hopeful sign, it’s hard to project that he can sustain that kind of success (1) in the AL East and (2) in his late 30s.

I dunno. I always liked the guy, and I really like having a decent defensive first baseman (especially with Will Middlebrooks, a talented but raw young 3rd baseman, makiing the occasional wild throw from across the diamond). For several years we’ve had the luxury of excellence at first (Youk, Gonzalez) and we will miss that sorely if Mike Napoli is unable to morph into an at least marginally credible defender there.  Mike’s a gamer and will I’m sure hurl himself at the challenge, but it’s a lot to expect of a beat-up catcher whose few games at first in the past have not inspired confidence. LaRoche is both a respectable glove at first and a solidly productive (25+ HR) hitter, hence a very reasonable person to plug in if we could.

That being said, LaRoche is not a high-pitch-count OBP grinder and he is, again, 34–vs. Napoli, who costs no draft pick, is two years younger, is accomplished at hitting AL pitching, has outstanding numbers at Fenway, and grinds pitchers into exhaustion. If the Sox didn’t care about plate discipline at this position, they’ve already got a considerably younger dude in house–Saltalamacchia–who can deliver that 25 HR and is athletic enough to develop as a credible first baseman. For that matter, they’ve got Mauro Gomez, who was weak defensively when he first came up but settled down much more successfully than I’d thought he could over the course of the fall. Mauro can hit. He’s got a nice stroke, had some good streaks with the bat through his time with the big club last year, and is still developing. But his name is never mentioned when we talk about the future. Presumably the Sox know things about him that bumpkins like me have not noticed, and that knowledge inclines them to dismiss him as a viable dude. But if we’re stockpiling the fram system and saving picks and so forth…seems like keeping Gomez in mind as a cheap and not unpromising 1B option is not insane. If the Napoli deal falls through, they could do worse than save that second-round slot money to sign the guy they really want with that #7 first-round pick, and let Salty and Mauro duke it out at first during spring training. I like LaRoche, and if they do sign him it’ll be one more sign that they want to contend in 2013 enough to sacrifice a little in the farm system department; but if they don’t sign Nap OR LaRoche, it won’t be the end of the world at first in 2013. Just sayin.

what a pickle sniffer