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Still money to spend? Red Sox payroll, 2013-15 01.17.13 at 12:40 pm ET
By Alex Speier

The Red Sox have been arguably the most aggressive team involved in free agency this offseason, making a number of one-, two- and three-year bets that have allowed the team to keep of of its prospects and draft picks but paying top-of-the-market rates for players meant to help create a competitor in the short term while also buying time for the team’s next wave of prospects to develop.

Here’s a look at the team’s payroll outlook for the next three seasons, with particular significance attached to the idea of getting under the $189 million luxury tax threshold in 2014, given that doing so would position the team, potentially, to realize millions of dollars in a revenue-sharing rebate.

One interesting note — the Red Sox now stand a real chance of exceeding the luxury tax threshold of $178 million in 2013, a somewhat surprising development given the incredible payroll flexibility the team had at the start of the offseason. However, the team’s myriad short-term deals have yet to put the club in jeopardy of going past the threshold in 2014.

(UPDATE JAN. 17: With Mike Napoli reaching a one-year, $5 million deal with the Sox, the team now has even greater flexibility for future offseasons. However, with Napoli’s deal including incentives that could push the value of his contract back to the roughly $13 million annual average to which he originally agreed — albeit for one year instead of three — the Sox’ ability to stay under the luxury tax threshold in 2013 may hinge on his health.)

Meanwhile, the disincentive to go over the threshold in 2013 was diminished by the fact that the team was just under the $178 million luxury tax threshold in 2012, falling about $40,000 short of that mark thanks to the salary relief offered by the Dodgers trade. Because the Sox were under the threshold in 2012, they will be taxed at a 17.5 percent rate for any salary commitments above the luxury tax threshold the next time they clear that bar, instead of at the 40 percent assessment they would have faced for exceeding the threshold in at least three straight years.

(This list will be updated throughout the offseason as the Red Sox make additional commitments and as one-year deals for salary arbitration-eligible players are reached.)

2013 PAYROLL (LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD: $178 MILLION)

Guaranteed deals

John Lackey, $16.5 million
Ryan Dempster, $13.25 million
David Ortiz, $13 million
Shane Victorino, $13 million
Stephen Drew, $9.5 million
Clay Buchholz, $7.4 million
Dustin Pedroia, $6.80 million
Jon Lester, $6 million
Mike Napoli, $5 million (incentives could be worth $8 million)
Jonny Gomes, $5 million
Koji Uehara, $4.25 million
Craig Breslow, $3.125 million (based on Jan. 19 agreement to terms on two-year, $6.25 million deal, pending physical)
David Ross, $3.1 million
Jose Iglesias, $2.1 million

TOTAL GUARANTEED: APPROX $108 MILLION (UP TO $116 MILLION)

Arbitration eligible

Jacoby Ellsbury, $9 million (agreement on Jan. 18)
Joel Hanrahan, $7.04 million (agreement on Jan. 18) — potential for $60,000 in incentives
Jarrod Saltalamacchia, $4.5 million (agreement on Jan. 17)
Andrew Bailey, $4.1 million (agreement on Jan. 18)
Alfredo Aceves, $2.65 million (agreement on Jan. 18) — potential for $150,000 in incentives
Andrew Miller, $1.475 million (agreement on Jan. 18) — potential for $50,000 in incentives
Daniel Bard, $1.8625 million (agreement on Jan. 18)
Franklin Morales, $1.4875 million (agreement on Jan. 18)

PROJECTED TOTAL: APPROXIMATELY $33 MILLION

Pre-arbitration eligible

Junichi Tazawa
Felix Doubront
Ryan Kalish
Daniel Nava
Will Middlebrooks
Clayton Mortensen
Pedro Ciriaco

PROJECTED TOTAL: APPROXIMATELY $5 MILLION

Additional expenses

Benefits, $10.8 million
40-man roster members, $1.2 million
Dodgers subsidy, $3.9 million

APPROXIMATELY $16 MILLION

ESTIMATED 2013 TOTAL COMMITMENTS: $162 MILLION (AS MEASURED FOR LUXURY TAX PURPOSES) — APPROXIMATELY $17 MILLION UNDER THE THRESHOLD

2014 PAYROLL (LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD: $189 MILLION)

Guaranteed deals

John Lackey, $16.5 million
Ryan Dempster, $13.25 million
David Ortiz, $13 million
Jon Lester, $13 million (option)
Shane Victorino, $13 million
Clay Buchholz, $7.4 million
Dustin Pedroia, $6.8 million
Jonny Gomes, $5 million
David Ross, $3.1 million

TOTAL GUARANTEED: APPROXIMATELY $91 MILLION

Arbitration eligible

Andrew Bailey
Alfredo Aceves
Andrew Miller
Daniel Bard
Franklin Morales
Junichi Tazawa
Felix Doubront

PROJECTED TOTAL: VERY ROUGH APPROXIMATION OF $25 MILLION-$30 MILLION

Pre-arbitration eligible

Jose Iglesias (he can have a salary reduction of no more than 20 percent)
Will Middlebrooks
Clayton Mortensen
Pedro Ciriaco
Jackie Bradley Jr.
Ryan Lavarnway
Ryan Kalish/Daniel Nava/Bryce Brentz

PROJECTED TOTAL: APPROXIMATELY $5 MILLION

Additional expenses

Benefits, $10.8 million
40-man roster members, $1.2 million
Dodgers subsidy, $3.9 million

APPROXIMATELY $16 MILLION

ESTIMATED 2014 TOTAL COMMITMENTS: $142 MILLION (WITH THE ABILITY TO PUSH THAT NUMBER DOWN THROUGH TRADES) — APPROXIMATELY $47 MILLION UNDER THE THRESHOLD

2015 PAYROLL (LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD: $189 MILLION)

This is so far out that it’s almost nonsensical to hypothesize what the team’s obligations might be to arbitration-eligible players and pre-arbitration players. But, a look at the guarantees reveals a ton of financial flexibility for the team.

Guaranteed deals

John Lackey, $0.5 million
Shane Victorino, $13 million
Clay Buchholz, $7.4 million
Dustin Pedroia, $11 million (option)

APPROXIMATELY $32 MILLION

Additional expenses

Benefits, $10.8 million
40-man roster members, $1.2 million
Dodgers subsidy, $3.9 million

APPROXIMATELY $16 MILLION

TOTAL COMMITMENTS: APPROXIMATELY $48 MILLION — ROUGHLY $141 MILLION UNDER THE LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD

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  • Chonor0713

    Maybe we can entice Dice K to come back.

  • Anonymous

    Agreeing somewhat with your numbers (you’re way over on the pre-arb eligible number and on the very high side of correct on the arb-eligible number), I come up with the Sox at roughly $154MM, including benefits, to date, for 2013.  They have less than $24MM left to stay under the tax limit.

  • Quoi

    Alex, have the Sox given any consideration to signing Berkman? He’d be a nice platoon with Gomes in left and Napoli at first. The Sox should be able to find him 400 PAs. And I’m guessing he could also handle left field at Fenway. Plus, he should cost much, maybe 6-8 mil on a one-year deal? Seems like a good fit, and in keeping with their philosophy this offseason.

  • Nunky

    who is going to be a FA in 2015 that they will be able to spend all this money?

  • Joeferoce

    Aren’t they leaving themselves short with several good free agents potentially available after next season? Also, does the money they owe the Dodgers the next 3 years factor into the equation for the Sox?

  • Gibba1924

    Who cares at this point? This Organization is going south in a hurry. Dumb Deals and even more stupidity with these free agent signings … This all started with the horrible trade with L A where we have one of the richest organization in all of sports crying poverty saying we can’t afford to be near the Luxury threshold, PLEASE!! I just hope these clown sell this Organization before they do any more damage… 

  • Genco Olive Oil

    Alex, you have Lackey listed at $500 K in 2015. Do we know for certain that his injury clause was triggered by his TJ surgery and his missing the 2012 season? If that is indeed the case, then that has serious luxury tax implications I think you should’ve noted—because isn’t the luxury tax calculated by the AAV of a player’s contract? As such, that would change Lackey’s deal to six years and a total of $83 MM instead of the original five years and $82.5 MM, no? A sixth year being added on at $500 K would reduce the AAV of his deal from $16.5 MM—which is what you have listed here—to $13.8 MM. Wouldn’t that free up an additional $2.7 MM for the Sox in calculating their proximity to the luxury tax threshold?

  • Lbush121212

    They have the money sign Ross and Swisher because ELLSBURY will be gone after next season so prepare for the future Swisher would be a nice fit as he ‘s a bat from either side of the plate , play first base or right field or even DH while Ross is a decent outfielder with a good pop in Fenway park , he was voted 10 th player so why wait , it seems like the same crap every year , they say they wanted till Hamilton signed well he did , now get better outfielders too…

  • Lbush121212

    That wouldn’t surprise me or maybe J.D. Drew ?

  • Spareman7

    Sounds like you should be the general manager real damage could get done then.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/P6UJEK6COKSLKGZW4M22A473ME Cedric

    I love the signing of Victorino,Ross and Dempster and if Lackey’s Tommy John surgery works out and thats a big “if” then we just might be okay.I would have liked to see them make an effort to get Youk back but at least they got rid of the biggest poison pill of all though…Bobby it’s not my problem Valentine good riddance.

  • Mascmen7

    John Lackey seems to have an eternal contract. How many games has he won for Red Sox? Jose Iglesias needs to be traded. CNBC says John Henry’s eyes bulged when he saw $2 billion Dodger sale so he thinks Red Sox will bring more as Fenway Park, NESN are included which is why contracts are short to clear way for new owners.

  • Pip

    They keep spending money on veterans who block the prospects they are hoarding. Go figure.

  • evanander

    There are no prospects currently being blocked because NONE ARE READY.  Get that through your thick skull.  Virtually every prospect in the farm system still needs development time, and I’d rather see them at the MLB level when they are closer to finished products.  In the meantime, the Red Sox have assembled a contender capable of making the playoffs.  When the prospects can legitimately produce at a big league level, they will get their chance.

  • evanander

    Jose Iglesias needs to be traded?  Stephen Drew signed a 1 yr deal you dolt.  Why do you think that is?  Jose Iglesias will get his real chance next year after he develops this year in AAA.  He is not ready for the big leagues because his bat currently sucks.  He has not much trade value right now either.

  • Shard77

    It’s going to be laughable when the Sox finish fifth in the division with a payroll of $160MM ++.  Unless this collection of broken-down, has-beens all realize career years the Sox will be just as pathetic this year as they were last year.  Ben, I totally agree with hanging onto the prospects and picks, but just come out and tell the faithful you’re building for 2014.  Don’t insult our intelligence by overpaying for mediocre talent and passing it off as being competitive. 

    My money says Cherington is looking for a job this time next year.

  • Normdubois

    Cherington has even more to prove than the Red Sox themselves. He keeps doing the ‘talk’ but not the ‘walk’.  With all kinds of money to spend, he just keeps ‘talking’ about the ‘best’ players that are available until they are gone to some other team, then picks up just average or mediocre type players. He’s been dealt with a loaded gun, but can’t pull the trigger! They’re always ‘talking’ about  next year, waiting for ’prospects’ that all have so much ‘potential’! Are they in the ‘prospecting’ business or the sports entertainment business? Sounds like the Red Sox of old, “Wait Till Next Year”!!!     

     

  • Reporourke

    My Gawd we have to pay Lackey $16.5 Million in 2014 too?!!! Nice work on that signing guys.

  • Rmesser272

     Ellsbury only makes 8 mil thats not going to by you Ross or Swisher

  • fenway1

     I believe he already signed with Texas for 10M

  • Aussie11589

    He signed with texas

  • Anonymous

    didn’t these guys bring us 2 championships

  • http://twitter.com/JLFCASH John Fahrer

    True. You can never have enough guys to throw batting practice

  • Anonymous

     Based on two of the last three years–is he even worth $8M?

  • Anonymous

     The Sox dumped Beckett, Crawford, Gonzo, Ross, Aviles, Punto and Youk.  And who do we have now for nearly the same payroll? Gomes, Victorino, Drew, Napoli, Dempster, Hanrahan(for a year) and Ross.  I’m not sure this is even a “wash.”

  • Dano50

    Gibba you are SO shortsighted.  Let’s see how De La Rosa and Webster turn out.  Both very good pitching prospects.  Jerry Sands also brought Hanrahan as a major trade piece…though I wouldn’t have minded keeping him too.  But the biggest thing that trade brought was the very topic under discussion…future trade and FA signing flexibility…while keeping the farm pretty much intact.  This could also pay large dividends in the next couple of years if a few of these young players blossom and take their places on the field at the big league level.   

    The team as constituted last year was not working out…for whatever the reasons.  I applaud Ben and his management team for creativity and am very willing and fascinated to see how it plays out.  The finished product is not even complete and you’re whining before they even lace ‘em up.

  • Dano50

    You overrate Ross (the outfielder).  Nice little player who benefited by playing here.  I might have preferred him too…but I don’t think he’s much better than Gomes…or if he even is. Statisically they’re almost the same guy.  Both can rake…especially somewhere like Fenway.  Both are below average fielders. 

  • Dano50

    Dear Mascmen7:  Lackey has won 26 games here…in his two seasons he has been able to pitch.  His second was injury shortened and he needed surgery that has taken a year to recover from.  Not his fault.  Who knows…he may have made it worse trying to pitch through pain in that last season in which he played.  I think some of us may have been unfair in evaluating him…including me.  Might as well keep an open mind and see what he’s got.  Not much choice now is there?

  • Dano50

    Pip:  Who exactly is “blocking” anyone?  They’re simply buying time for these kids…while not losing draft picks in signing veterans.

  • Dano50

    Shard77:  A safer bet is you will be nowhere to be found (not that anyone will be looking or care) if this team does well.  Here’s a clue…no one cares what you think!  Have a nice life.

  • Dano50

     Normdubois:  Gee…here’s an idea…why not wait until THIS year ya dope!

  • Dano50

    You have to remember…Gibba just started following this team in “04″.

  • Dano50

    dmm:  You forgot to include Farrell…De La Rosa and Webster…and millions of dollars of payroll for years to come.  Big picture eh?  Don’t be a shortsighted dolt.

  • Pedro

    Wonder how a pitcher like Lester feels about a stiff like Dumbster making more money then he is
    Victorino in making more then Pedy, what a joke. And Lackey who was the ranked the worst starting pitcher in the american league the last time he pitched, and is the highest paid player on the team, how dumb is this front office? i can answer that, dumb enough to finish in last place. and it looks like another last place finish

  • Pedro

    It wasn’t these guys, it was those two juice heads Manny & Papi

  • Billyt

    Very good article. Nice Job. Tremendous flexibility in 2015 assuming they dont make any long term trades or signing that carry them into 2015 and beyond. Loads of young talent that we should see in 2015. I think certain teams like the Dodgers, Angels, Toronto, New York, and maybe Detroit will be locked in to some contracts that will really put a stranglehold on there ability to sign anyone of relevance. The Red Sox better hope this young crop will turn out to be good players. If not, you will see the same business practice of over paying for Free agents to long term trades for mediocre results….

  • Hogblower

    This is horribly formatted.

  • Stewie

     I believe Berkman has signed with Texas….

  • http://www.facebook.com/kilo9 Ludwing Harrison Morales

    it’s on like donkey kong

  • GRONK4MVP

    actually, its on like Gronkey Kong

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