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What to make of the revised Mike Napoli deal 01.17.13 at 12:39 pm ET
By Alex Speier

Mike Napoli

On its face, the change in terms is stunning.

On Dec. 3, the Red Sox agreed to a three-year, $39 million deal with Mike Napoli. On Jan. 17, 45 days later, Napoli and the Sox finalized a one-year, $5 million contract. It’s a staggering decrease in the guarantee.

Consider:

  • Lance Berkman, who was limited to 32 games in 2012 by a knee that required surgery, got a one-year, $11 million guarantee from the Rangers. (Hat-tip to Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLBTradeRumors.com for pointing that one out.)
  • David Ortiz, who was limited to 90 games and missed almost all of the second half of 2012 with an injured Achilles, received a two-year, $26 million deal that could rise to a two-year, $30 million deal if he avoids the DL.
  • Other first basemen who signed this winter included Adam LaRoche (two years, $25 million), Kevin Youkilis (one year, $12 million) and Mark Reynolds (one year, $6 million).
  • Jonny Gomes, who is likely to see most of his playing time in a platoon role primarily against left-handed pitchers, received a two-year, $10 million deal from the Red Sox.

In other words, it’s startling to see where Napoli’s contract ended up. He’s making 47 percent less than the $9.4 million he made in 2012, in his last year of arbitration eligibility prior to reaching free agency. His guarantee dropped by 62 percent on an average annual value basis; overall, it fell by 87 percent (from $39 million to $5 million). On the surface, it looks like he’s being treated as a more dramatically damaged asset than players such as Berkman who missed dramatically more time.

Unquestionably, Napoli has had a host of ailments through the years, although the various issues that have resulted in stints on the DL (calf, shoulder, etc.) have not featured the hip condition that resulted in the considerable reduction in this deal. So how’d that happen?

A couple of points are worth mention. First, Napoli has incentives if he avoids the disabled list that could increase its value back to roughly the $13 million for which he was originally in line for 2013.

Secondly, while he represented one of the top sluggers on the market when healthy, he doesn’t have the pedigree of Berkman and Ortiz — either in terms of perennial performance or, for that matter, the ability to stay on the field. Napoli has played more than 114 games once; Ortiz had played at least 140 games in seven of the last eight seasons before last summer’s Achilles injury.

All the same, it’s an extreme reduction that appears to have little recent precedent. The Sox saw potential injury red flags with other players in recent years (such as John Lackey and J.D. Drew), but in both cases, the two players ended up agreeing to deals that largely preserved the original years and dollars in the deal (five years, $70 million for Drew; five years, $82.5 million with Lackey), with language that allowed the team to add or subtract years from the deal in case a pre-existing injury (shoulder for Drew, elbow for Lackey) led either to miss a specified amount of time.

Napoli’s hip, evidently (even without knowing the extent of the damage that the Sox saw), is different — and perhaps with good reason. After all, the team saw Mike Lowell struggle with his range, offensive production and health over the life of his three-year deal that ran from 2008-10. Kevin Youkilis was limited significantly by bursitis in his hip (along with a sports hernia) in 2011, and didn’t perform to his pre-injury standards when he returned in 2012. Carlos Delgado‘s career careened off a cliff due to his hip labrum issues. Alex Rodriguez has seen his career enter a steady decline since he started to experience hip issues.

Perhaps those precedents explain why Napoli ended up with just a one-year deal that will put him back on the market next winter. If he remains healthy, the Sox will benefit from getting a productive player on a low-risk, one-year deal, and Napoli will have a chance to return to free agency coming off of his age 31 season, with a chance to hit the market as one of the preeminent hitting first basemen and/or catchers on the market.

But if he suffers a health setback, then the player is accepting almost all of the risk, with the Sox unencumbered by any salary commitments to him beyond the coming year.

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  • Jwing3399

    hoping that Red Sox Nation will embrace this guy …. dont know what happened behind the scenes here…but you sure as heck havent heard any whining from him….and that contract shows a ton of accountability on his part

  • Anonymous

    No Whining. He’s my favorite player.

  • Skip

    Here’s a little bit of info on the situation…
     —————————————————

    Jon Heyman
    ‏@JonHeymanCBS

    Napoli got 2nd/3rd opinions on hip, confirming 1st.
    Tough guy. Tough situation. Belief is, he’ll tough out in ’13

  • Theodore

    Holy Smokes!! I almost feel bad for the guy!

  • innovator1

    The right deal was made,and if he does well,he will cash in somewhere…For the year he had last year,he really didn’t deserve a three year deal….If healthy,he will perform,I have no doubt.

  • Jwing3399

    Arod just had his hip operated on and he (I believe) is out until at least right after the AS game. Just speculating, but my guess is Napoli (as stated in Skip’s post) … will tough it out and then if he needs to go under the knife, he’ll do it as soon as the season is over to give him a bit more recovery time prior to the start of 2014 season. 

  • Anonymous

    I love the revised deal.  I hated the original deal, even if Naps was healthy.  But you have to question how a deal like this is going to affect the player’s disposition.  I usually argue for driving a hard bargain. With this one, however, I fear that we’re opening ourselves for a can of worms if the season doesn’t go quite so well for him. And what does this say to other free agents about signing with the Sox?  Yeah, we are making the best of the situation we found ourselves in.  But what is the unseen, unanticipated cost of this?  I guess we’ll find out in due time.

  • Guest2432

    Pink hats can now switch back to wanting Napoli if they want or wait till he does well to talk about how they always wanted him. 

  • Anonymous

     His hip must be worse than anyone is letting on. As for Ortiz, I think the Sox are going to have to swallow hard this year. 

  • Ronjb441960

    Napoli  washed up  ,  not a 1st basement i would pick  , Henry , company  don’t love baseball  i can see it this winter signings …….  

  • missing detail

    The article says “Napoli has incentives if he avoids the disabled list”, but I’m pretty sure it’s only if the injury that puts him on the DL is hip related, not just any injury.  That makes a big difference, as quite a few players on each team hit the DL at some point, but most of the time it’s not long term.

  • sev

    the fact that he signed for only 5 mil guaranteed makes me think the opposite.  I feel like he is very confident he can prove himself in this ball park and atmosphere, because it’s hard to imagine he couldn’t get anything more from other teams despite the injury concerns. Unless he’s just always wanted to play for the sox, the more likely scenario is that he believes his hip won’t be a problem.  Nice move by Ben.

  • http://www.facebook.com/pete.lincoln.338 Pete Lincoln

    Napoli makes 13 million if he does not go on the DL for a hip injury.  Napoli has never been on the DL for a hip injury.  If Napoli has a hip injury during the season, you can bet he won’t tell anyone.

    I remember we were all happy to get Beltre on a 1 yr deal.    Halfway into 2010, we all regretted he was on a 1 yr deal and wished it were more.

    Of course, the Red Sox can make a QO after 2013, and maybe Napoli accepts, but then the risk won’t be mitigated.

    Napoli did better than Liriano.  He agreed to a 2 yr 13 million dollar deal with the Pirates but an arm problem has prevented the deal from being completed.

  • http://www.facebook.com/pete.lincoln.338 Pete Lincoln

    I wonder if Napolis agent was at least savvy enough to get a handshake agreement that the Red Sox not make a QO after 2013.

    Something tells me Napoli is in the market for a new agent.  MRI’s are not always very predictive and he could have done a better job attacking the conclusions if he is not symptomatic.  Look at Arod, he had an issue with his hip that would have shown up on a MRI since he was 14 and played 20 years at HOF level before it became an issue.    

  • http://twitter.com/Zj_6 Zack Jones

    Cherington robbed him on this one. 5mil is chump change compared to what they were going to spend

  • anguillaman3

    Obviously , he is damaged goods..big time, with that in mind it looks like another bad Bumbling Ben Cherington deal. If the guy is damaged..he’s damaged…why buy something because it used to be good?

  • Robwalsh

    Yep and we get to go through all this drama again next year when they need to resign Napoli or another first baseman.  Still think they should have taken Laroche and forfeited the draft pick tied to him.  Better defender, left handed hitter and, though older, considerabley better history in staying healthy.

  • Stumpsr

    Hoping that he puts dents in the Monster. He signed for one year and $5 million but didn’t he have the opportunity to sign with someone else for more and had no other offers? My guess is that if the hip is bad enough that he will miss a lot of time.

  • Rick in NH

    A VERY smart signing. He gets $5m guaranteed. Does anyone really feel badly that he’ll make more this year (even if he stinks) than most of us will see in our lifetimes. He has tremendous motivation to perform and if he does and stays healthy he’ll get close to the original $13m. This deal was worth waiting for.

  • Dbvader

    He  has played more than 114 games more than once because he was held back by Scioscia and he was a catcher.

  • Cwaring

    Only played so few games cuz he was a friggin catcher you tools!

  • EddyGomes

    I hope he has a huge year! No other greedy player in sports would go for this contract. Napoli Nation!

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