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Keith Law on Hot Stove Show: Red Sox lack top-of-the-rotation prospects 02.09.13 at 12:15 am ET
By Alex Speier

Keith Law

In his annual ranking of farm systems, ESPN’s Keith Law recently pegged the Red Sox as having the 17th-ranked farm system among the 30 big league franchise. He suggested that the ranking reflected the fact that, while he views shortstop Xander Bogaerts as a likely future star who ranks among the top handful of prospects in the game, the Sox don’t have a great deal of major league-ready impact players coming up through the system, and that among the organization’s pitching prospects, he views few (if any) as potential top-of-the-rotation candidates. (He did suggest that Rubby De La Rosa has the potential of an ace, but that it remains to be seen how the right-hander rebounds after missing most of 2012 following Tommy John surgery in late-2011.)

“The Red Sox have a decent farm system. I think the last two drafts have helped significantly in a system that was really on the down-swing prior to that. I don’t think they have a lot of impact close to the majors, and I don’t see a lot of high upside pitching,” he said. “I think they have more back-end pitching or quality relief prospects, but not the potential No. 1 and 2 starters that other organizations have. They’re not all going to turn into aces, but at least the possibility exists for that to happen.”

While there are a number of talent evaluators and publications that have suggested that right-hander Matt Barnes projects as no worse than a likely mid-rotation (No. 3 or No. 4) starter with the ceiling of a No. 2, Law suggested that the 2011 first-rounder out of the University of Connecticut lacks the dominant secondary offerings — at least at this point of his career — to suggest a pitcher with that kind of ceiling.

“I don’t think that’s a reasonable evaluation of where Barnes is today. I give him credit for making a lot of progress out of school. His junior year at UConn was a little bit disappointing and allowed the Red Sox to get him where they did. He could have gone top 10, at least 15, going into his spring,” said Law. “The big thing with Barnes, I know the strikeout numbers were great, but he was doing a lot of it just with great fastball command — which is awesome. You love to see that. But it’s not like he has knockout stuff. And I think as he continues to move up the ladder, unless one of those pitches takes a big leap forward, like suddenly the curveball adds a grade or two on the 20-80 scale, he’s probably going to be relying on that fastball command to continue to miss bats, and that’s harder and harder to do as you continue to move up the ladder. …

“That’s not typically how you tend to pitch in the top two spots in the rotation. Most guys who pitch up there have either a clear swing-and-miss pitch or something that generates a ton of ground balls. Barnes, for me, doesn’t have any of that. And I will say also, I downgraded him a little bit because it’s not a great delivery. He’s got the size, and he actually does a great job of repeating the delivery, but it’s not the cleanest you’re going to come across. That does give him, I think, a slightly higher risk of injury than some of the pitchers that I have graded higher than him.”

At the minor league level, Law suggested the Red Sox need to find additional players with the potential to be star-caliber performers, and that the team’s highest draft pick (No. 7 overall) in 20 years will assist in that endeavor. And, at a time when he sees only a few potential impact contributors from the system in 2013, he suggested there was some skepticism about the Sox’ approach to building their big league roster this winter through free agents who fall short of star-level performers.

“There’s a lot of confusion as to why the Red Sox are suddenly playing in the middle tier of free agents, which I think historically is the most dangerous area to play,” said Law. “The premium guys — obviously, the Red Sox have had trouble there — but if you go after the stars, you do fine. And if you go into the bargain bin, you can do well. But if you go into the middle tier . . . The [Shane] Victorino deal to me was the worst free agent contract of the offseason. [Mike] Napoli, obviously they re-did the deal, but there’s no way I’m giving him three years. The guy was a part-time catcher at best and probably just a full-time DH. Those are not the players that I would recommend really any team signing. But it seems their strategy is they’re the class of free agents we want to go after, at least for the next couple of years. . . . I just don’t really understand that as a philosophy because the history of that class of free agents is not that good.”

To listen to the complete interview, click here. For complete Red Sox coverage, visit weei.com/redsox.

Read More: keith law, matt barnes, rubby de la rosa, Shane Victorino Print  |  Email  |  Bark It Up!  |  Digg It
  • Spitfire1064

    Nice tie Keith.

  • evanander

    hey keith get a brain moran

  • yours truly

    Keith Law is actually a Yankees fan if you didn’t notice

  • Arrow

    Who is this yahoo?

  • Jwing3399

    yeah … Pedro wasnt projected as a frontline starter either when he was younger ….

  • ButterTooth

    It’s Chess King. LOL

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Paul-Crowley/100001398780186 Paul Crowley

    What is Alan Webster, chopped liver, Keith?

  • Troy

    This clown doesn’t know sh@t!!!

  • Bruinman86

    I disagree with Keith here.  Just read everyone else’s rankings of the farm systems and you’ll see the Sox  aren’t even close to 17. Rosenbaum of Yahoo Sports has the Sox #10 and it’s only going to get better with the upcoming draft. John Sickels of minorleagueball.com has the Sox at #9 and  MLBProspectGuide.com has them 5th.  See a pattern here?  Law must be on crack, plain and simple.

  • Chrisindanvers

    Keith Law is definitely entitled to his opinion. Just like a lot of these system rankers, essentially it is like throwing darts at a dart board and hypothesizing who might do well based on similar players. Much of his ranking might be due to the lack of talent at the top level that is ready to jump to the big leagues. However, when you look at the team’s top prospects, you can see that they might be ready to make the jump later this season.

    Incidentally, other people have the Red Sox ranked differently, just proving how useful such predictions are. These include:

    Fangraphs – ranked 11th
    Baseball America (Jim Callis) – ranked 5th
    Minor league baseball.com (John Sickels) – ranked 9th

  • jward23

    So Law just peed on the Red Sox campfire. This time next year nobody will remember who ranked which system where. And who can blame us?

  • Boring Media Hype

    I can’t wait to see all our young stars on the field this long hot Summer digging and scratching at their jocks and spitting their ‘chew’.  It’s a great time to be a Boston Red Sox fan ain’t it???

  • Mattt

    Pretty sure De Rosa isn’t a prospect anymore anyway because he has enough major league service time…

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_WW4SUGV5J6Y7R5MVPAWVIWAJFU Dennis

    His column does’nt mean sqwats.Anyone who has been a long time fan of baseball could do the same thing.The so called experts have no clue until it happens.I have been listening to these guys forever and what they say has turned out to be just opinion,much like the rest of us.But it is humorous to read.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_WW4SUGV5J6Y7R5MVPAWVIWAJFU Dennis

    Exactly.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_WW4SUGV5J6Y7R5MVPAWVIWAJFU Dennis

    Like i said in my comment,just opinion and sometimes biased.We can do the same our opinions are just as good as his.

  • Brian

    No WEEI commentor, your opinions aren’t as good as Keith Law’s.  That doesn’t mean he will be right, but all opinions aren’t created equal.  Have you been able to travel across the minor leagues to scout every team’s system?  Do you have a background in scouting and actual professional work with an MLB team?  Do you have the resources of a paid ESPN employee to devout the time to make comparisons of the system?  It’s beyond ignorant to suggest Keith Law’s opinion carries as much weight as the average commentor here, come on.  If Keith said they had three aces and the best farm system people would love it.

  • http://twitter.com/JLFCASH John Fahrer

    Webster’s probably a 2 or 3. Don’t know if he counted DeLaRosa given his MLB experience  (mlb.com didn’t include him despite his soxprospects.com ranking) who is a 1 or 2. Barnes is probably a 2 or 3. Don’t know why Law doesn’t think Henry Owens could be a 1 down the road. The guy has the tools to be an ace. Just needs more polish. With that number 7 pick this season, they could land an ace. Keeping my fingers crossed that Mark Appel from Stanford will still be available.

  • http://twitter.com/JLFCASH John Fahrer

    That’s true. Just don’t understand how the guy could rank the system 17th when fangraphs was ranking it in the top five and mlb.com had six of the prospects in the top 100. No way that’s a latter half system right now, especially with several guys knocking on the door.

  • Pedro

    In  case you didn’t notice, he said the Sox suck

  • Elaine_Apthorp

    I enjoyed this article. It’s refreshing to hear a variety of opinions when each is not snide, hysterical, or overblown, but a thoughtful assessment supported by some rationale and / or relevant statistics. Predictions are largely silly, but we all have fun making them anyway and reading about the predicitons others, with access to more information, make. Frequently the professionals, no less than the fans, make predictions that turn out to be fabulously mistaken and embarrassing to look back on: e.g., the Greatest Team Ever predictions about the 2011 Red Sox, predictions that a whole host of well-informed pundits asserted, only to look pretty foolish when the team went right off the rails in September and stayed in that ditch the following year to the point where the team eagerly sold off the two marquee free agent signees (Gonzalez, Crawford) who’d touched off the grand predictions in the first place.

    What I hope is that Mr. Law’s assessment of the Sox’ pitching prospects and recent FA signings looks similarly embarrassing down the road. Spring training = license to hope and imagine, and I’m enjoying the thought that this mix of players–including the young pitchers Mr. Law doesn’t think much of and the free agents he disparages here–will go out and surprise him (and a number of other commentators) with a whole lot of very good ball. Everybody could be very mediorcre; I can certainly see a case for that statistically. Then again, the ’88 Dodgers were a pretty mediocre club statistically and they’re all wearing World Series rings; the team they beat was way better on paper. But that particular bunch of Dodgers was scrappy enough to maximize the talent they did have; they put together a great run, and the baseball gods looked down, smiled, and said, “yes.” You can cite dozens of similar examples. That’s why they play the games. Go Sox :-)

  • Pedro

    The dodgers of 87 were not a last place team. But i could see your point, Ortiz could juice more, Lackey could win 25 games, Victorino could hit 60 homer’s, and pigs could fly. Victorino is a guy the Phillies new better then anybody dumped him on the dodgers, The dodger’s said they loved him, yet they made no attempt to sign him. Its funny to hear all these sox fans spin the stories to feel good about the up and coming season and many seasons in the past, its no wonder Fenway is sold out to watch a last place team, the dumbest fans in sports. Sweet Caroline

  • Tedsox

    When it comes to opinions one persons is as good as anothers. Thats why a team should never be afraid of trading prospects for established players as long as it does not destroy the pool of players. Who succeeds and who fails has a lot to do with makeup and intangible attributes. However, this idea that Barnes is less of a prospect because he relies on fastball control is ridiculous. How many elite arms fail due to lack of command? Pitchers who can command a mid 90′s fastball are as good a shot to become top of the rotation pitchers as any. Also, how can you begin to discuss the Sox farm with no mention of Bradley, Webster and Owens all three of which are top 110 players even in Law’s estimation.

  • theredlaydown

    Funny how he speaks of teams with a middle tier free agent strategy don’t have s good history? Hmm wonder what he thinks of Oakland and san fran these past two three seasons…because he basically just described their approach

  • Anonymous

    Of all the blowhards earning a living by knowing nothing, Keith tops the list. He’s not 17th or 5th, he is number 1. I have never seen anyone as prejudiced against the Red Sox, They never are given credit for anything. While clearly the Sox don’t rank in the elite minor league systems, I think they are probably 5-6 notches higher than he ranks them. 18 months ago I would have put the Sox near the bottom, and I think they’ve made pretty good progress rebuilding a forgotten area in that time frame. As for Keith, Faux news should hire him

  • Coolmt02

    An HONEST assessment from someone OUTSIDE of Boston with NO bias.

  • Coolmt02

    An HONEST assessment from someone OUTSIDE of Boston with NO bias.

  • http://twitter.com/Zj_6 Zack Jones

    For everyone saying keith law hates the sox……he constantly called tito francona one of the the top two managers in the game next to Joe Maddon. He gave his opinion on the sox system. Prospects are prospects for a reason. Nobody actually knows how they’ll do and Law is the first to admit that.

  • http://twitter.com/Zj_6 Zack Jones

    he doesn’t use other rankings to make his own. Why get upset over it? If he’s wrong he’ll admit but until they play in the bigs, no list can disprove anyone else’s list

  • Anonymous

    Keith is right.  We need more “high upside” starting pitching prospects, and a few better positional picks.  Where Law misses it is when he doesn’t understand Cherington going into the mid-market on free agents.  These are “bridge” signings of adequate players.  They are designed to get us to 2015, where we intend to have a team built predominantly out of our farm system.  That said, Cherington overpaid and over-committed in years to these mid-market F/A’s.  His criticisms of the signings should purely be about the years and dollars given; not a lack of understanding as to the “why’s” of the signings.

  • Boo

    Law is a blowhard. go write an article on how great the yankees are and how their farm system is stocked with major league ready talent..idiot

  • Anonymous

    No surprise here regarding the criticism  of Law’s appraisal.  Most are just name calling. emotional outburst you would hear at a bar, and plain ignorance. Most, if not all, do not the credentials or experiences to  provide a reasonable critique of his views, which also suggests rather poor analytical skills on their part.

  • AL34

    I do not think it is a bad article. He is criticizing the GM, Ben Cherrington, I mean Larry Luchinno for the questionable free agents he picked up. Napoli is okay, not great, Victorino was a rediculous signing, and then they reached with Dempster. Its like they acted like a low budget papuer team with the free agents they picked up. But that fugures because Larry Luchinno is playing the part he always wanted to play GM, and the game has passed this relic behind. Sad what the management if this team has turned into by letting Terry Francona go and them going into the high reward guys / low budget guys. Its going to be a long year guys and gals, real long.

  • Judas Shuttlesworth

    “The premium guys — obviously, the Red Sox have had trouble there — but if you go after the stars, you do fine.:
    Has he watched Carl Crawford over the last two season?

    But he is right about the Sox prospects – they don’t rank highly in the Baseball America Top 100. Nobody they acquired in the Gonzo-Crawford deal is even remotely close to being considered an elite prospect. If you don’t believe me, look at Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus. 

  • http://twitter.com/Zj_6 Zack Jones

    He pulled one over on Napoli I think but coughed it up with Victorino IMO

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