Jon Lester

The Red Sox look to Jon Lester to help extend their three-game winning streak Monday night when they welcome the weak-hitting Mariners to town. Coming off back-to-back All-Star seasons, Lester (1-3) has been serviceable but unspectacular through seven starts in 2012. Across the board, he’s giving up more hits (8.4), walks (3.9) and earned runs (4.29) per nine innings than he has since 2007. He’s also averaging the fewest strikeouts per nine innings (6) of his entire career while the Sox are just 2-5 when their nominal ace takes the mound.

And yet, almost every time out, Lester has pitched well enough to give his team a chance to win, going at least five innings in six of his seven starts (the exception being a brutal two-inning beatdown by the Rangers on April 17). In the four other Sox losses Lester has appeared in, he’s allowed only eight earned runs, including a complete game against Toronto in which he scattered just three hits. What’s more, opponents have hit only three home runs against Lester all season, putting the 28 year-old-lefty on pace to tie a career low 0.6 home runs per nine innings.

Seattle’s offense ranks in the bottom half of the American League in every major category, including dead last in on-base percentage at .291. The vast majority of the Mariners offense is also unfamiliar with Lester. Ichiro Suzuki (26 plate appearances) and Chone Figgins (17) are the only Mariners to have more than five plate appearances against him, combining for 11 hits and nine strikeouts.

The Sox offense, meanwhile, faces its own tough task in Seattle’s Jason Vargas, who is coming off a terrific, eight-inning, one-run win over Detroit. Over the last two years, the 29-year-old lefty emerged as a reliable option for the Mariners and has elevated his game even further in 2012, stepping into the No. 2 spot in Seattle’s rotation vacated by Michael Pineda. Vargas is 4-2 in eight starts overall this season with a 2.79 ERA.

The 10 Boston batters who have faced Vargas are hitting a combined .280 but have just one home run and six RBIs in 55 plate appearances.

Monday night’s game is the 34th of the year for the Red Sox, meaning they’ve already played than 20 percent of the season. At 15-19, the Sox currently sit in last place in the AL East, 6.5 games behind Baltimore.

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The Tigers have a “long list” of starting pitchers they want to trade for, according to a tweet from Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com, and three names on that list include San Diego’s Aaron Harang (8-2, 3.29 ERA), Seattle’s Jason Vargas (6-8, 3.94) and Doug Fister (3-11, 3.30), also of Seattle. All three play for teams that are in last place in their respective divisions and have little hope of even coming close to making a run at the playoffs.

Detroit starters rank 19th in the majors with a 4.02 ERA, and that includes star pitcher Justin Verlander‘s mark of 2.24, which is fourth among all qualifying MLB starters. Outside of the lanky fireballer though, the Tiger don’t have a starter in their rotation whose ERA is lower than 4.35. All three of the aforementioned pitchers would break that trend.

Daisuke Matsuzaka

After a nine-game road trip, the Red Sox kick off an 11-game homestand Friday night when they take on the Mariners and Jason Vargas. The 28-year-old lefty is 0-1 in two career starts against the Red Sox, but he has pitched well in both outings. He gave up one earned run over 5 1/3 innings in his first start (a no decision) against the Sox back in 2009. In his only start against them last season, he allowed two earned runs over seven innings in a loss.

Current Sox are hitting just .233 against Vargas. Carl Crawford and Marco Scutaro have struggled with him the most, as they are 0-for-9 and 0-for-4, respectively. J.D. Drew has had the most success against Vargas. He is 2-for-4 with a home run and a pair of walks, giving him a 1.917 OPS.

Vargas has yet to break into the win column this season, as he is 0-2 with a 5.53 ERA in five starts thus far. The Mariners have lost each of his last four starts, most recently dropping a 9-1 contest to the Athletics on Saturday. Vargas gave up six runs on six hits and three walks over five innings in that game. His previous two outings were both quality starts, though.

Daisuke Matsuzaka will take the mound for Boston with his eye on a third straight win. He has been virtually untouchable in his last two starts, allowing just two hits and four walks while striking out 12 in 15 innings.

Matsuzaka is 2-1 with a 4.11 ERA in eight career starts against Seattle. Current Mariners are hitting an eye-opening .310 against him, though. Chone Figgins has done the most damage, as he is 7-for-13 (.538) with five walks and a 1.359 OPS against Matsuzaka. Jack Cust, who is hitting .286 in 14 at-bats, is the only Mariner with a home run off Matsuzaka, although he also has eight strikeouts in those 14 ABs.

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Josh Beckett

After Thursday’s near no-hitter turned into an extra-innings debacle, you’d have to guess that the buzz from that contest would dominate the headlines going into Friday’s game between the Red Sox and the Mariners. However, there is one storyline that may even supersede the one coming from what some have already deemed the Red Sox game of the year: the return of ace Josh Beckett. The Sox fireballer hasn’t pitched in the majors since leaving a May 18 game against the Yankees with back issues. This will be just his ninth start of the season. Opposing Beckett on the mound for the Mariners Friday night will be Jason Vargas.

Beckett (1-1, 7.29 ERA) has to hope that his second go-round in 2010 goes significantly better than his first. His ERA was an atrocious 7.29 in those eight starts, and he had allowed five runs or more on four separate occasions. He could not have returned at a better time, as he gets to face the lowly Mariners. Against Seattle in his career, Beckett is 4-1 with a 3.15 ERA. Those numbers only get better at Safeco Field, where he is 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA in two career starts. Additionally, the Mariners as a team rank last in the majors in average (.235) and runs (320). After Ichiro Suzuki’s .312, no other player on the Seattle roster is hitting higher than .264.

Speaking of Ichiro, his matchup with Beckett should be an interesting one to keep an eye on. Surprisingly, the Seattle lefty hitter is just 2-for-18 against the hard-throwing Boston righty. Given that Ichiro easily has been the team’s best hitter this season, that stat is not very comforting for the M’s heading into Friday. Perhaps they’ll have to lean on Russell Branyan, who is having an off year but is hitting .462 against Beckett with two home runs.

While there will be a lot of hullabaloo about Beckett heading into Friday’s matchup, Vargas (6-4, 2.97 ERA) quietly will enter the game as one of the more solid starters in the American League. His ERA is the eighth-lowest in the American League, and in his last two starts he has been nothing short of brilliant, giving up just one run in each game while going at least seven innings against the Yankees and Angels, respectively. Vargas has been even stingier this season in giving up runs at home, where he is 5-1 in 10 starts with a 2.19 ERA.

It should be interesting to see how the Sox match up with Vargas at Safeco, given that all but two of Boston’s position players have seen the Seattle lefty in the past. Perhaps they can get some advice from J.D. Drew, who has yet to be retired by Vargas in three career at-bats against him, going 2-for-2 with a home run and a walk. Read the rest of this entry »