According to bodog.com, the Yankees are viewed as the odds-on favorites to win the World Series after a year in which New York led the majors with 103 victories. New York was given 9/5 odds to win the Series, followed by the Cardinals (5/1) and then the Red Sox (11/2). Here is the list of odds for all the playoff participants (including both the Tigers and Twins, whose one-game playoff will come later today), as produced by bodog:

Naturally, the Red Sox won’t say it. With 23 games to go, the players will insist that their postseason chances remain very much an open question, that the Twins (5.5 games back of the Sox in the wild card) or the Yankees (7.5) or Blue Jays (9.0) could somehow intrude on Boston’s path to the postseason. Didn’t you see the 2007 Rockies? Surely, then, the Royals (22.0) could crawl back from oblivion…

As this great sage once said, "People can come up with statistics to prove anything. Forty percent of all people know that."

Josh Beckett, who returns to the mound today for the first time since August 17, provided a typically diplomatic response when asked whether his recent time on the sidelines might prove a boon for the playoffs. 

“We’ve got to get to October first,” he said. “I don’t think that any of us are counting any of those teams behind us out.”

Well, here’s the reality check: according to baseballprospectus.com, the Red Sox stand roughly a 98.5 percent likelihood of postseason ball. Sure, baseball history is a rich tapestry filled with the defiance of laws of probability, such as when the 2007 Mets were left with vexed looks on their faces after they choked their way from a 99.8 percent probability of the postseason last September 12 to a vacation on September 30. According to this article on the history of late-season collapses, only three teams in baseball history–the ’95 Angels, ’07 Mets and the ’51 Dodgers–have ever missed the postseason after enjoying a position along the lines of the perch where the Sox now find themselves.

In other words, it’s possible that Boston the Sox will have a restful October…just as its possible that “Tommy Bear” will go all Ocho Cinco. But I’m not sure I’d bet on either outcome.