Adrian Gonzalez is not bothered by the idea that he may not have gotten top dollar from the Red Sox. (AP)

DETROIT – To recap, here’s what has transpired in the market for elite sluggers in the last few years, along with the age and 2011 performance of each first baseman who has received a nine-figure contract in the last four year:

Mark Teixeira, Yankees – 8 years (2009-16, ages 29-36), $180 million. $22.5 million average annual value (AAV). Signed as free agent in Dec. 2008.

2011 Stats: Age 31, 156 games, .248 average, .341 OBP, .494 slugging, .835 OPS, 39 HR, 111 RBI

Ryan Howard, Phillies – 5 years (2012-16, ages 32-36), $125 million. $25 million AAV. Signed in April 2010 as extension of three-year, $54 million deal that had two remaining years before free agency.

2011 Stats: Age 31, .253 average, .346 OBP, .488 slugging, .835 OPS, 33 homers, 116 RBI

Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox – 7 years (2012-18, ages 30-36), $154 million. $22 million AAV. Signed in April 2011 as extension on $6.3 million salary in 2011, one season before free-agent eligibility.

2011 Stats: Age 29, 159 games, .338 average, .410 OBP, .548 slugging, .947 OPS, 27 HR, 117 RBI

Albert Pujols, Angels – 10 years (2012-21, ages 32-41), $240 million. $24 million AAV. Signed as free agent in Dec. 2012.

2011 Stats: Age 31, 147 games, .299 average, .366 OBP, .541 slugging, .906 OPS, 37 HR, 99 RBI

Prince Fielder, Tigers – 9 years (2012-20, ages 28-36), $214 million. $23.8 million AAV. Signed as free agent in Jan. 2012.

2011 Stats: Age 27, 162 games, .299 average, .415 OBP, .566 slugging, .981 OPS, 38 HR, 120 RBI

Joey Votto, Reds – 10 years (2014-23, ages 30-39), $225 million. $22.5 million AAV. Signed in April 2012 as extension of three-year, $38 million deal that had two remaining years before Votto would have been a free agent.

2011 Stats: Age 28, 161 games, .309 average, .416 OBP, .531 slugging, .947 OPS, 29 homers, 103 RBI

Of that group, Gonzalez had the best average last year, was third in OBP and second in slugging and tied for second in OPS, all despite the fact that the 2011 season was one in which he was recovering from surgery that had denied him the ability to build strength in his right shoulder during the previous offseason.

As for his contract, Gonzalez is close to his peers in average annual salary, though his is the lowest of the group. He has fewer years in his long-term deal than all of those players except Howard. Read the rest of this entry »

Jon Lester

After the sharp sting of the 2011 season, the number of major changes made to the organization in the offseason and all the eager hours of anticipation, the Red Sox will take back to the field as they kick off their 2012 season Thursday against the Tigers in Detroit. Both teams will look to get their respective seasons started on a winning note by wheeling out their premier starting pitchers, as the Red Sox will throw Jon Lester against the Tigers’ Justin Verlander.

Lester will be making his second consecutive Opening Day start, as he got the nod last year when the Red Sox lost 9-5 to the Rangers. In that start, Lester went 5 1/3 innings, giving up five earned runs on six hits, three of which were home runs.

Even with a less-than-ideal start to open the season, Lester emerged as perhaps the team’s most reliable starting pitcher. In 31 starts in 2011, Lester went 15-9 with a 3.47 ERA, 182 strikeouts and 75 walks. His 15 wins were the most of any Red Sox pitcher and his ERA was bested by only one Red Sox starter (Josh Beckett). In spring training, Lester has shown no signs that his production will deteriorate, as he threw 18 innings and went 2-1 with a 3.50 ERA.

With the game scheduled for a 1 p.m. start, Lester will be pitching in two situations in which he thrived last season. Despite just a 5-5 record in 13 starts at Fenway Park last season, Lester went 10-4 on the road with a 3.47 ERA. In day games, he was 7-3 with a 3.25 ERA.

None of Lester’s 18 road starts last year took place at Comerica Park and Lester has not pitched there, or against the Tigers at all, since the 2010 season. In two starts against the Tigers that year, Lester struggled mightily, going 0-1 with a 5.54 ERA. One of those starts was at Comerica, a game in which Lester pitched seven innings and gave up four earned runs in what turned out to be a no-decision. Lester owns a 5.89 career ERA against the Tigers, his highest mark against any American League team.

The Tigers lineup that Lester will face Thursday is expected to be one of, if not the best in Major League Baseball this season. Last season, the Tigers, as a team, batted .277, which ranked them third among MLB teams, trailing only the Rangers and Red Sox. Additionally, Detroit was fourth in hits, RBIs and runs, making it one of the most accomplished offenses in the league. The Tigers were only 11th among MLB teams in home runs, but that can be attributed to playing half of their games at cavernous Comerica Park.

What was already a potent Tigers offense was upgraded immensely in the offseason with the addition of prized free agent Prince Fielder. Last season playing for the Brewers, Fielder was among the leading candidates for the National League MVP, batting .299 with 38 home runs and 120 RBIs. He ranked second in the National League in home runs and RBIs, trailing Matt Kemp of the Dodgers in both categories. Detroit, however, will be without catcher Victor Martinez for the entire season due to injury.

Read the rest of this entry »

Slugger Prince Fielder's nine-year, $214 million deal with the Tigers underscored the unpredictable nature of free agency. (AP)

As the Red Sox prepared to reload after missing the playoffs in 2010, they faced something of a dilemma. They could part with three of their top prospects in an effort to acquire a superstar first baseman, or they could wait until after the 2011 season when there would be a potential once-in-a-generation ensemble of first basemen on the market.

The Red Sox, of course, chose the former route. Though it hurt to part with pitcher Casey Kelly, first baseman Anthony Rizzo and centerfielder Reymond Fuentes, the Sox were willing to do so to acquire Adrian Gonzalez on the condition that they were able to define the parameters for a long-term extension. The team chose that path not just because of its longstanding love affair with Gonzalez, but also because they were happy to avoid the murky terrain of free agency, a process that at times resembles a descent into dark underworld of Dagobah in which one never knows what one will encounter.

As one Sox official pointed out last spring, you simply never know who will jump in the bidding in free agency for a player and take him out of a reasonable price range. Moreover, the fact that the free market is not transparent further complicates the bidding process.

It’s become popular sport to ridicule the notion of the so-called mystery team, but suffice it to say that at the start of the offseason, no one anticipated that Prince Fielder would end up signing a nine-year, $214 million deal with the Tigers. Few thought that Albert Pujols would leave St. Louis in order to sign a 10-year, $254 million deal with the Angels.

Would the Red Sox have been able to afford either Fielder or Pujols on the sorts of deals that they signed, or Gonzalez for whatever he might have commanded on the open market? Maybe, maybe not. But what the Sox knew was that they could take the three-prospect needed to trade for Gonzalez and that they could afford his $6.3 million salary in 2011 as well as the seven-year, $154 million extension that will kick in next year and run through the 2018 campaign.

The Sox knew that they had a comfort level adding Gonzalez for his age 29-36 seasons at the value they established in negotiations with him. Whether they would have been similarly confident in the return on investment if they had to sign him through, say, his age 38 season, or if they had to pay Pujols through his age 42 season or Fielder through his age 36 season (given the likelihood that erosion of his somewhat limited defensive skills will turn him into a DH at some point in his deal) is not as clear.

All of that serves as something of a reminder about how difficult it is to plan to build through free agency. Unlike the trade market, which offers cost certainty, free agency inherently features guesswork that either can lead teams to bid against themselves or that forces them to blow past commitments with which they could expect performance to remain in line with contract size.

While Pujols and Fielder received the third and fourth contracts of $200 million or more in major league history, the Sox remained comfortably on the sidelines as the bidding process unfolded. It is hard to imagine that they were unhappy with that vantage point.

A look at the three first basemen:

PRINCE FIELDER

27 years old (turns 28 in May)
9-year, $214 million contract with the Tigers ($23.8 million per year)
2011: .299 average, .415 OBP, .566 slugging, .981 OPS, 38 homers, 120 RBI, 162 games
2006-11 average: .282 average, .391 OBP, .541 slugging, .932 OPS, 38 homers/year, 108 RBI/year, 160 games/year

Fielder is the youngest of the bunch, at an age that suggests he is just entering his prime, and that he’s likely to be the healthiest of the players over the coming few years (despite concerns that his massive frame will make it difficult for him to remain hold up for the long haul). He also put up huge numbers in 2011.

He’s been somewhat less consistent than Gonzalez and Pujols, having alternated MVP-caliber numbers with star (rather than superstar) level production in the last six years. His year-by-year OPS since his rookie year of 2006: .831, 1.013, .879, 1.014, .871, .981. His defense is also a notable step down from that of past Gold Glovers Pujols and Gonzalez, and the likelihood that he spends the life of his next contract as a first baseman (rather than a DH) is low.

Moreover, he has benefited from his home park, with a .965 career OPS at Miller Park and an .896 road mark. Still, his power is extraordinary, and his ability to impact a baseball while unloading with a monster swing bears resemblance to David Ortiz.

ADRIAN GONZALEZ

29 years old (turns 30 in May)
7-year, $154 million contract with the Red Sox ($22 million per year)
2011: .338 average, .410 OBP, .548 slugging, .957 OPS, 27 homers, 117 RBI, 159 games
2006-11: .297 average, .380 OBP, .520 slugging, .900 OPS, 31 homers/year, 103 RBI/year, 160 games/year

Gonzalez had his fewest homers since 2006, a development that was at least partly the result of the fact that he lost strength in his surgically repaired shoulder over the course of the year and that he suffered a mid-year neck injury that hindered his ability to drive the ball.

However, removed from the offense-smothering environment of PETCO Park in San Diego, he also performed near an MVP level, with the highest average and OBP of his career, along with the second highest slugging mark. Moreover, Gonzalez is in the middle of his prime.

With a healthy offseason of workouts in front of him, there is reason to believe that he is capable of sustaining or improving upon his 2011 performance in the coming couple of seasons, so long as he remains relatively healthy.

ALBERT PUJOLS

32 years old (turned 32 on Jan. 16)
10-year, $254 million contract with the Angels ($25.4 million per year)
2011: .299 average, .366 OBP, .541 slugging, .906 OPS, 37 homers, 99 RBI, 147 games
2006-11: .325 average, .424 OBP, .613 slugging, 1.037 OPS, 41 homers/year, 118 RBI/year, 152 games/year

Pujols is the oldest of the three, and he is at the end of what is typically a player’s prime offseason seasons, at a point where decline typically sets in. His career-low average, OBP, slugging percentage, OPS and RBI total suggest as much.

That said, his production was still remarkable, particularly given that he shook off a poor start and that he missed just two weeks after suffering a wrist fracture in the middle of the year. And he still assaults baseball’s with nearly unmatched force.

With Pujols, it is nearly impossible that anyone else can match his peak years. The question is whether the coming peak years of Fielder and Gonzalez might prove superior to the early years of his decline from his historic heights.

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Albert Pujols reportedly will meet with the Cardinals Wednesday. (AP)

With Albert Pujols‘ representatives set to meet with the Cardinals on Wednesday morning, Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman is reporting that the Marlins’ 10-year offer to Pujols is not much more than the Cardinals’ original nine-year, $200 million offer. The exact amount of Miami’s offer is unknown, but Heyman says that it is believed to be between $200 million and $220 million.

Meanwhile, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Cardinals have upped their offer to potentially approach 10 years for $220 million.

A free agent for the first time in his career, Pujols has received heavy interest from the Marlins over the last few days. But as Heyman reports, the Cardinals are offering full no-trade protection, whereas the Marlins have not. Furthermore, Pujols already has a legacy in St. Louis. If Miami’s offer is not that much more than the Cardinals’ offer, the Marlins may find it tough to lure Pujols away from St. Louis.

Heyman is also reporting that the Marlins are discussing going after Prince Fielder if they cannot sign Pujols.

According to a tweet from ESPN’s Jim Bowden, the Mariners are the front-runners to land free agent first baseman Prince Fielder. Bowden notes that the Brewers, Cubs and Blue Jays are all seeking shorter-term deals for Fielder.

WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reported Tuesday that the Mariners, who may have seemed a logical suitor for David Ortiz, are not pursuing the free agent designated hitter.

Cubs manager Dale Sveum told reporters Tuesday that his team has not talked to Fielder, who hit .299/.415/.566 with 38 homers and 120 RBI last season.

In his career, Fielder, 27, has hit .282/.390/.540 with 230 homers and 656 RBI. The son of former Tigers first baseman Cecil Fielder was named an All-Star for the third time in his career last season. He was named MVP of the All-Star game and picked up his second career Silver Slugger.

Prince Fielder

The Orioles are interested in Brewers free agent slugger Prince Fielder, but new general manager Dan Duquette said that he “doesn’t want to get the fans’ hopes up,” according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.

Sports Illustrated’s Jon Heyman tweets that the team’s interest is owner Peter Angelos‘ secret mandate. Heyman adds that manager Buck Showalter likes Fielder, and Duquette isn’t afraid of big stars or big contracts.

Other teams rumored to be interested in Fielder are the Nationals, Cubs, Mariners, Rangers, Blue Jays and Brewers.

The Red Sox opted to trade for Adrian Gonzalez (left) 10 months ago, passing on the chance to pursue Albert Pujols in free agency. (AP)

A year ago, the Red Sox recognized that they would have an opportunity to add an extraordinary first baseman in the near future. After the 2010 season, Adrian Gonzalez, Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder were all one year away from reaching free agency.

Though the baseball world was operating on the assumption that Pujols was all but certain to re-sign with the Cardinals, Gonzalez and Fielder were almost certain to be available either in a trade prior to the 2011 season or on the open market after it. With Mark Teixeira under contract to the Yankees through 2016, the Sox understood that — while nothing is certain in free agency — they would be in a strong position to acquire one of those three players by 2012.

But the Sox didn’t wait. Instead, they made their move to acquire Gonzalez from the Padres last offseason, trading three prospects to land the young superstar for a 2011 season during which he was under contract for the bargain salary of $6.3 million. The Sox then signed Gonzalez to a seven-year, $154 million extension that will keep him in Boston through 2018, in his age 36 season.

And despite the fact that the recovery of his right shoulder from surgery last offseason to repair a labrum tear sapped Gonzalez’ power down the stretch, he delivered just about everything the Sox could have asked for in his first year in Boston.

That said, the sight of Pujols’ ridiculous and historic performance in Game 3 of the World Series — in which the slugger tied World Series records with five hits, six runs batted in and three homers — made obvious the question: Would Gonzalez still have been the offseason first baseman of choice had the Sox waited until after 2011 to make their move?

Take a look at how Gonzalez, Pujols and Fielder performed in 2011, then vote below on which first baseman will be the top performer during his next contract: Read the rest of this entry »