ESPN baseball analyst John Kruk joined Mut & Merloni Thursday to share his thoughts on how the American League playoff race is shaping up as well as who the contenders are for postseason awards.

Kruk noted that the American League playoff picture is more cloudy considering the injuries to Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz, but he said he still believes the Red Sox will pull through.

“I’m still going to stick with the Red Sox,” Kruk said. “I picked them early and what the heck, they’re still there.”

If Beckett’s sprained ankle turns into a lingering injury, however, Kruk said the Red Sox could easily have their October cut short.

“With this injury to Beckett, you don’t know now if he can go on three day’s rest if they were even going to think that way anyways,” Kruk said. “If Beckett’s not healthy and he tries to come back and he’s not healthy and pitches poorly, the Red Sox might be a quick out against whoever they’re going to play, Detroit or Texas or the Angels.”

Kruk agreed with Curt Schilling‘s comments from his appearance on Mut & Merloni on Wednesday when Schilling predicted that either Curtis Granderson or Jacoby Ellsbury will win the AL Most Valuable Player award.

“I think it’s the center fielders in the East, Granderson and Ellsbury,” Kruk said. “And the thing is, it’s two unexpected great years. You thought Ellsbury would be a good player. You didn’t know he’d be a great player. You didn’t know what you’d get from Granderson because he really struggled last year. When you have a guy who’s hit seventh and eighth and even ninth in the lineup, and now all of the sudden, he’s hit third every single day against righties and lefties like Granderson is doing, driving in runs and hitting home runs.

“Both guys are so vital to their team’s success and if either one of them got hurt and was out for awhile, both teams would really really struggle to win games because that’s how great these two players have been for their teams.”

Kruk acknowledged that Detroit’s Justin Verlander, who won his 22nd game of the season on Wednesday, is having a great season, but said he does not think pitchers should win the MVP because of the limited number of games they participate in.

“In the clubhouse, it’s the pitchers and the regular guys,” Kruk said. “The pitchers hang out amongst themselves. They should have their own award and they do and that’s great. I know what Verlander does has been spectacular. And any pitcher, [CC] Sabathia‘s like that, [Jon] Lester‘s like that, the guys in Philly are like that.

“It’s not what they do the day they pitch, but it’s what they do the day before and the day after they pitch that really is vital to the team and can save a bullpen. They only play 35 days, 34, 35 days. It’s hard for me to say this guy is our most valuable guy because he’s only played 35 games. I’ve always struggled with that.”

Following are more highlights from the conversation. To hear the interview, go to the Mut & Merloni audio on demand page. Read the rest of this entry »

Jerry Remy

NESN Red Sox analyst Jerry Remy joined the Dennis & Callahan show Thursday morning for his weekly discussion about the Red Sox. He spoke about the recent struggles of Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz, the situation with Mike Lowell, as well who on the Boston roster could return next season.

“I think [Adrian Beltre] is here for one year ,and if he has a big year, he’s looking for a big contract,” Remy said. “[Jason] Varitek, he’s viable to come back. Ortiz, I’m not so sure. I think they’ll probably go out and try to find another DH, a younger guy. Lowell is gone and Victor Martinez is a big question mark.”

Remy also touched on Stephen Strasburg’s impressive debut with the Nationals.

Below are the highlights of the interview. Visit the Dennis & Callahan audio on demand page to hear the interview.

On Justin Masterson’s performance:

He was pretty good last night. That’s what we saw a little bit here with the Red Sox. I still believe he’s better off in the bullpen than as a starter, but he sure had a great game last night. That power sinker he throws, he was throwing 95-96 all night long. He just got a lot of ground ball outs, he was really good. … Even though it was against the Red Sox, you’re happy for the kid because he’s one of the nicest kids you’re ever going to meet in your life. Everybody pulls for him, they really do. Even through his tough times, they say around here that he handled it with nothing but class and dignity, like we would expect for him.

On Dustin Pedroia:

I think he’ll turn it around. Watching his at-bats, they’re not bad at-bats. He’s making solid contact, he’s hitting the ball well, I think. I think right now he’s just running into some bad luck, and one thing I’ve learned is never count out Dustin Pedroia. He said it the first year, “When I get hot, I get hot.” I don’t worry about him. Read the rest of this entry »

Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman could be the most sought-after free agent of this offseason. (AP)

It is entirely possible that the most pitched battle of the offseason begins anew today in Houston.

Cuban left-hander Aroldis Chapman is scheduled to have a workout in front of talent evaluators, including the Red Sox, Yankees and numerous other clubs from all market sizes (the A’s and Marlins, for example, are both reportedly interested). The 21-year-old is an international free agent whose door will be wide open to eight-figure bids.

Based on conversations with a handful of talent evaluators who have seen Chapman pitch in international competitions (most recently, last spring’s World Baseball Classic), the left-hander is described as possessing the sort of electric arm that leaves evaluators drooling. His fastball registered as high as 102 mph in the WBC, and he has shown the potential for a sharp, nasty slider.

That said, while Chapman comes with a big arm, he also comes with what the evaluators described as “a lot of risk” (a phrase that was connected to Chapman a few times). The last time that he was seen by many scouts was in the WBC last March. He’s considered fairly raw, and lost development time since he has not been tied to organized baseball since his defection early last July.

Though he showed incredible stuff in the WBC, he had an unimpressive 5.68 ERA in the tournament, walking four and striking out eight in his 6.1 innings spanning two games. Evaluators frowned that the southpaw yelled at teammates and umpires during the tournament, raising questions about his makeup and maturity (with the caveat that, at 21, he is quite young).

There is no denying the raw talent of Chapman. His ceiling is almost certainly that of a No. 1 starter. That said, the notion that he is a left-handed version of Stephen Strasburg – the No. 1 overall pick of the 2009 draft who throws 100 with a hammer curve – may have been exaggerated.

All the same, because Chapman is a free agent, the bidding for his services promises to be intense. Sources at the Winter Meetings suggested that, since the pitcher changed representation from Edwin Mejia to the Hendricks Brothers last month, talk of a $40-60 million bonus has quieted. The new agents tabled murmurs about what the left-hander would seek, holding off on such notions until today’s workout. Even so, multiple evaluators believe that the contract that Strasburg got from the Nationals – a major-league deal for $15.1 million – will be used as a benchmark by Chapman.

Of course, given the report by ESPN’s Jorge Arangure that the Red Sox offered Chapman $15.5 million to sign when they met with the pitcher in November, it would appear all but certain that the 21-year-old will accomplish that goal.

Barring an injury, the question is not whether he will exceed Strasburg money. The issue is how far beyond that figure the bidding for his services will go.

That said, despite Chapman’s considerable gifts, evaluators were unanimous that he should not be regarded as being in the same class as Strasburg. Whereas Strasburg was viewed as virtually major-league ready at the time he was drafted, Chapman is described as requiring significant development before he would be major-league ready, particularly given the amount of time that he has had off.

And, while it will be tempting for teams to pour significant money into acquiring a pitcher with such incredible velocity, there are plenty of cautionary tales about hurlers who hit triple digits early in their careers before seeing their velocity plummet due to subsequent injuries.

One need look no further than Maels Rodriguez, believed to be the first Cuban pitcher to be clocked at more than 100 miles per hour earlier this decade. Rodriguez was a dominant force in Cuba by the time he turned 20, but injuries wrecked his career and velocity by the time he defected in 2003. He was drafted by Arizona in the 22nd round in 2005, but never played in the minors.

Rodriguez, however, was injured by the time he came to the States. Chapman does not come with any health-related red flags. Today, if he can offer a reminder in Houston of his unique combination of gifts – a 6-foot-4 left-hander who is 21 and throws over 100 miles an hour – Chapman will find a long line of teams bidding huge sums for his services.

Tick-tick-tick.

Midnight looms for major-league baseball teams to reach agreement with the players selected in this year’s June draft. And no issue looms larger than that of the future of top overall draft pick Stephen Strasburg and his negotiations — with the contributions of “adviser” Scott Boras — with the Washington Nationals.

Strasburg has been described as a once-a-generation talent, a pitcher with a more explosive fastball than Daniel Bard or Justin Verlander, capable of complementing that pitch with above-average off-speed stuff (a curve and changeup — and good luck to batters who are geared up for a 100+ mph fastball if he can also sell a changeup). The Nationals have already leaked word that they have made a record offer for a drafted pitcher, exceeding the $10.5 million that Mark Prior got to sign with the Cubs.

Of course, Prior offers something of a cautionary tale. He was viewed as a perennial Cy Young contender with perfect mechanics that made him virtually injury proof. Instead, following a collision while running with the bases in 2003 and heavy usage by then-Cubs manager Dusty Baker, prior encountered shoulder injuries that derailed his career. He has not pitched since 2006, another example of a huge prospect taken near the top of the draft who never panned out.

Prior is not alone. Brien Taylor was taken as the top draft pick by the Yankees in 1991, a left-handed pitcher who had stuff out the wazoo (including a 99 mph fastball) when he was taken out of high school. But he ruined his shoulder in a bar fight, and never reached the majors. In 2004, the Padres took shortstop Matt Bush with the top pick of the draft. He was arrested shortly after his selection, never proved able to hit in the minors, was eventually converted to pitching and, after that experiment failed (he blew out his shoulder), is not even pitching in the minors.

There are cautionary tales, to be sure. That said, it is possible to exaggerate the dangers of the top draft pick.

Since the draft was implemented in 1965, 19 of the 44 top selections (not including Strasburg, who has yet to turn pro) have made at least one All-Star team. Former top picks Ken Griffey, Chipper Jones and Alex Rodriguez have all put up Hall of Fame numbers in their careers; Joe Mauer is in his fifth full season of doing the same.

The common denominator of those players, aside from their draft status, is that they are all position players. Pitchers, on the other hand, have been a riskier lot, with just three of the 13 pitchers taken first overall making an All-Star team. (Even the group of All-Stars is anything but illustrious: Floyd Bannister, Mike Moore and Andy Benes weren’t exactly annual Cy Young contenders.)

Will Strasburg be able to fulfill his potential in a fashion that would be unprecedented for a pitcher taken with the top of the pick? Will he even seek the opportunity to do so, or will he walk away from an eight-figure offer from the Nationals in an effort to use his singular talent to bring down the draft system? The answers will start to come by midnight. And the baseball world will be watching with considerable fascination to see what will emerge from the Bermuda Triangle of Strasburg-the Nationals-Boras.

The Red Sox will be no different. For months, team officials have wondered what the future might hold for Strasburg. But Boston has been in the rather enviable position of detachment while watching Boras’ tireless efforts to claim millions of dollars for his amateur advisees this year.

The Sox did not draft a single Boras client this year. And so, the team has enjoyed a relatively calm negotiation period, in which the team has locked up most of the top talents whom it selected.

To date, the one significant disappointment for the Sox has been the fact that sixth-rounder Branden Kline will not sign. The right-hander was viewed as possessing immense potential, with the frame and delivery that suggested the potential for a mid-90s fastball and a nasty curve. But Kline didn’t play in a summer league, and instead seemed intent on fulfilling his academic and athletic scholarship to the University of Virginia.

Otherwise, the Sox have reached agreements with a raft of high-end talents. The team has spent particularly aggressively to secure the services of top prep talents, and in recent days, the team has spent almost $4 million to secure the services of players who fell in the draft due to questions about their willingness to sign.

The most prominent players who have signed with the Sox in recent days include:

–3rd-round pick David Renfroe (signed for $1.4 million), a pitcher and shortstop who earned some comparisons to David Wright; he will be groomed as a position player with the Sox

–7th-round pick Madison Younginer (signed for $975,000), a right-handed pitcher with a fastball that touches the high-90s and a slider that made his high-school opponents weep

–10th-round pick Brandon Jacobs (signed for $750,000), a powerful running back and outfielder who has what Sox amateur scouting director Jason McLeod describes as “goofy power”

–11th-round pick Justin Thompson (signed for $300,000), a shortstop who can also play second and third and shows a solid all-around game

–18th-round pick Renny Parthemore (signed for $150,000) is a right-handed power arm who shows the potential for an above average fastball and curve

–26th-round pick Miles Head (signed for $335,000, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America) is a corner infielder who showed significant power in several high school showcase events

When the smoke clears on Aug. 18, the Sox will have added a number of young players (mostly high schoolers) whom they hope will one day make an impact at the major-league level. That impact, clearly, is coming at some cost, though clearly nothing like what the Nationals are spending – in time, money and sanity – with Strasburg and Boras.

For the latest updates, Baseball America’s Draft Blog and the SoxProspects.com news blog are invaluable resources.

Jason McLeod, the Red Sox director of amateur scouting, popped through the Red Sox clubhouse prior to today’s game, accompanied by John Booher. (Booher, who now covers Texas and Louisiana, was the area scout who was chiefly responsible for following 2005 first-round pick Jacoby Ellsbury and 2007 top selection Nick Hagadone, who just returned to the mound this weekend following Tommy John surgery. Ellsbury and Booher briefly exchanged pleasantries in the clubhouse.) McLeod said that the Sox still have no idea who they will be taking with the 28th pick of the draft, since the Sox are in a position where they are at the mercy of the direction of 27 other clubs.

Stephen Strasburg went No. 1 overall to absolutely no one’s surprise.

Dustin Ackley, son of former Red Sox minor-leaguer John Ackley, was taken second by the Mariners, and B.C. catcher Tony Sanchez was selected fourth by the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Red Sox have had a couple of kids come into Fenway Park for workouts in the last couple of days (including high school catcher Max Stassi). Manager Terry Francona said that he’s run into a couple of them, including one slightly awkward encounter in the manager’s office earlier today.

“One of the young kids saw me in my underwear today,” said Francona, who was coming out of a SwimEx machine. “I don’t imagine he’ll be signing with us. I don’t think he’s dying to be a Red Sox.”

The Tigers selected right-handed pitcher Jacob Turner with the ninth overall pick. Some mock drafts had suggested that the Sox would happily pounce on Turner if he fell due to signability concerns, but the Tigers — a team that spends aggressively in the draft — prevented that outcome from taking place. Turner is a Scott Boras client.

Of the top 10 picks this year, four were college pitchers, three were high-school pitchers, two were college position players (one catcher — Sanchez — and one outfielder — Ackley) and one was a high school outfielder (Donovan Tate).